Monday night's game in Detroit marked the Senators reaching the 20 game mark, and much like I did after the 10 game mark I will pick this time to look back and also ahead, to see where the team is at, and maybe where it is going. I know they now have played 21 games, but this is the first "off day" with no game preview or recap so I can put more time and space into this.
First off, like I did after the 10 game mark, lets equalize the standings to see where each Eastern Conference team was at 20 games:
So, as you can see, the Senators have fallen off the pace that would put them in a playoff spot. I use 12 points per 10 game segment as the benchmark to virtually assure a playoff spot, and the Sens are 2 points behind that pace. So they are in the ballpark, but not quite sitting in the driver's seat. The strength of schedule over games 11-20 was stronger than games 1-10, but not by a lot.
They certainly don't want to fall off the pace any more than they have, and they will in all likelihood have to make up a couple of points in a future segment to get back on pace.
So that is how the Senators compare with those they are competing with overall, but how have they stacked up with what they did against those teams put in front of them on a game by game basis, the area that they have some control over:
So, as you can see, the Senators relied even more on goaltending to earn them points in the second segment than they did the first. Their possession stats were slightly better between games 11-20, but that was due largely to 2 games - Toronto and Winnipeg, where they were over 60% and 55% respectively. They lost both of those games, by the way (with the loss to the Jets coming in a shootout).
The Senators have continued to play almost a rope-a-dope type of game, and while it is sort or working in the fact that they are still in the hunt, it has also led to some pretty inconsistent hockey and you never know what you are going to get from the team on any given night. If the goalie who gets the call has a good night, the Senators have a chance to win. If they have an average or off night, the chances of being able to withstand that is pretty slim.
The 21st game of the season in St. Louis got the Senators off to a good start on their next segment, with perhaps their most consistent game start to finish. Even if they hadn't won, it was a solid game and the fact that they came back late to grab not just one but two points was more like icing on the cake. It is a very tough stretch coming up with a Florida trip on back to back nights followed by a home and home with the absolutely scorching-hot Islanders, Pittsburgh, Vancouver, LA and Boston before finally facing the lowly Sabres to end the segment. It will be a true test, and if they come away with 10 points it will be an impressive feat and although it will put them slightly off pace, there has to be a lull in the schedule at some point.
By December 13th the Senators will have a much better idea on whether or not they are contenders or pretenders, at which point they can make another decision...
CURTIS LAZAR & THE WORLD JUNIORS
Bryan Murray met with the media yesterday, and indicated that he would consider allowing Curtis Lazar to go to the upcoming World Juniors in Montreal and Toronto, if Lazar wanted to go.
By all indications, Lazar has stated that he prefers to be in the NHL, but knowing that he would be coming back to Ottawa and not Edmonton might make a difference in that decision.
While Murray indicated he wasn't going to release him for the whole camp, he would be open to releasing him for the tournament. Hockey Canada has in the past, had the policy that players participate in the entire selection camp, but not having won gold in 5 years has sort of softened that policy, so they would likely welcome Lazar (who is a potential captain of the team) with open arms.
My opinion is that eligible players should almost always be released to play for their country. For example, in addition to Lazar, Canada could still have Nathan MacKinnon, Jonathan Drouin, Aaron Ekblad, Bo Horvat, Sean Monahan and Anthony Duclair, who are all currently playing in the NHL. I do understand teams' hesitation to send their players to the tournament, but I think being part of a Championship, whatever level it comes at, is better for player development than playing a handful of NHL games.
If the Senators, for instance, were to send Lazar to the Canada camp following their Dec 20th game in Montreal, he would miss 6 Senators games between then and when the tournament ends, and return to the club after the Philadelphia game on Jan 6th. He could join Team Canada in time for the pre-tournament games and give him time to fit into whatever role he is given.
Lazar is an important part of the Senators' lineup on a nightly basis, but is not irreplaceable in the short term. I think from a development standpoint having a player of that pedigree with those experiences would benefit the Senators in the long run. That is, assuming they win the gold!