Let's ramp up the narratives again. The Jets don't work hard enough, they don't get good goaltending when they need it, they aren't getting puck luck, they don't have enough good players, the leadership is weak, the coach is tuned out by players, no one has intensity, etc. etc. etc.
Which storyline is it tonight?
Before I try and answer that look at all those issues above, only mediocre to bad teams have that many. The Jets simply compound their inconsistent identity by having so many issues to have exploited on a game-by-game basis.
Tonight I'm calling a different storyline, fatigue due to injuries. The current roster players are going to be seen as tired and worn down filling in for Bogosian, Kane, and Slater and not capable of carrying the workload. Hogwash! No one would dare try and sell that right?
Unless a few guys jump out of what is now becoming 'normal' play, expect a one-goal close game going either way. Why? It's because the Jets have been in 19 games of 32 that were decided by one goal, that 60% of games played. In those 19 games they have a .421 winning %.
Of note is that there is only one team in the West that has a worse winning % in one-goal games, the Oilers at .385.
There are no teams below Winnipeg in one-goal winning % that are in playoff position if they started today. Those teams are (in descending order) NYR EDM NJD CLB BUF NYI FLA OTT
What gives? Why does this problem plague the Jets and affect them like it does? First off is it as big a problem as we may think it is? The Jets have earned 32 out of a possible 64 points this season thus earning a .500 points % record. This league is driven by points so that is what matters, you get points by winning or forcing OT/SO and to do that you have to be somewhat decent in one-goal games.
The Jets points % in one-goal games is .526 just marginally better than their overall record. Had the Jets been winning at the same clip they would be at 34 points instead of 32 and the world would be much better right?
Let's Get Fancy
When the score is tied during 5 v 5 play the Jets have 46.6% Fenwick and a 47.5% Corsi. Of interest is that only EDM, CLB, and BUF are below the Jets in both of those categories. Now take a look at when the game is in a 'close' situation, "where the score is tied in any period or within one goal in the first or second periods." -thanks Extra Skater
The Jets have a 48.2% Fenwick and Corsi in 'close' situations. Of note is that they also have equally poor Goals For % (GF%) of 44.7 in tied situations and 43.4% in close situations. What we're seeing is that when the games are tighter, harder with a bit more pressure the Jets are just not that good. Opposition teams know how to shut them down.
You can do explain this with one of the above narratives in the first paragraph but in the end it's a summation of the them all. These guys just aren't that good. It's probably why they struggle in close games, having lost the second most in the league.
At even strength in all situations the Jets are still outscored and they hover just below (49.9% CF) and above (50.3% FF). The more concerning thing is that the Jets have spent the 6th most time on ice at even strength so far this season and they have the 28th ranked PP with the 11th most PP time.
They have the 10th ranked PK while spending the 11th most time on the PK.
They just do not have anything to show for their efforts with the puck at even strength and on the PP. That's two really important parts of the game and this group is just average if not dreadful. But hey we'll pick one the narratives and ride it after tonight and some will complain.
I know if I were a fan I'd complain but I wouldn't complain about what narrative is being told. I'd complain about why it appears nothing is being done change or fix those obvious issues.