Eight teams have ended their seasons and the 2nd Round of the playoffs will start without them. Some of them never had a chance (looking at you, Tampa) and others blew theirs *Cough SanJose Cough*. Now these teams face the looming possibility of roster changes. Many of these changes will come via trade because GMs are forced to appease ownership or upset fanbases, but others are going to come as key players hit Free Agency.
The Oilers are a team with extremely valuable trade assets, but those are the very core pieces of the rebuilding squad that management wants to avoid moving. For them it makes as much sense (or more) to try the Free Agent market as a means to enhance their club than it does the Trade Market. However, Free Agency and Edmonton don’t have the healthiest of relationships. Chalk that up to a combination of Northern climates, losing seasons, and the last GM’s miserable assertion that Free Agency was to be used on role players.
The Oilers cant control the fact that it gets cold here in February (or any other month that Hockey is played in) and it’s pretty clear that they wont shed the reputation as a bunch of losers soon, but that doesn’t mean they cant target quality players. The young core of the team is locked up to long term deals, now is not the time to worry about having to pay a little extra to get someone of quality who can play with the kids. Free agent acquisitions under Tambellini meant guys like Eager, Hordichuk, or Kurtis Foster. The only means the club tried to get their hands on any actual talent was via the Draft. They all but forsake the concept of adding a big fish after “The Rebuild… began.
That has to end, and these are the best pending Free Agents from each of the eliminated playoff teams. Some of these guys will re-sign with their clubs before they ever hit the open market, some will test the open waters as the opportunity for players to write their own destiny comes around only ever so often. I’m looking at these players through an Oiler lens, so if you think that the best UFA on Team X is a goalie then I’m likely going to overlook him because Edmonton is happy with their situation in Net right now.
COLORADO
C - Paul Stastny (28). 71GP, 25-35-60. Stastny just finished a huge contract so he shouldn’t be looking for big money with this one, right? Just kidding, it doesn’t work that way. Stastny had an excellent season with the Avs where he produced offensively and pushed possession. If having his best season in 3 years in traditional numbers wasn’t enough, he was the only Avalanche forward with a positive Corsi ratio. He was also solid in the faceoff circle at 54.1% and finished only behind Duchene in Even Strength points per game. Something to be wary about would be his high shooting percentage (16.7%) which is sure to come down, but Stastny is going to a valuable player nonetheless. From an Oiler perspective it would be great to run him out behind RNH in the 2C spot.
COLUMBUS
D - Nikita Nikitin (27). 66GP, 2-13-15. The Blue Jackets aren’t going to lose any marquee players to Free Agency this year but Nikitin could be a solid depth Defense pickup. He isn’t going to QB a Power Play any time soon, but at 27 years of age, 6’4…, and 223 pounds he has all the right vital statistics for a potential Oiler blueliner. He was middle of the range in Corsi for the Blue Jackets but based on his TOI/Game he wasn’t trusted enough to kill penalties on a regular basis (44 seconds per game). Despite the fact that he is the most attractive Free Agent on Columbus, I would avoid him altogether.
DALLAS
C - Vernon Fiddler (33). 76GP, 6-17-23. Look, it was either Vernon Fiddler as a potential 4C or Toby Petersen, and chances are MacT will take a chance on Petersen. The best (or most interesting) UFA for Dallas is probably Tim Thomas but the Oilers need a goalie controversy the way the Sharks need more Golf time in May. Fiddler is a veteran faceoff winning centerman who gets fed a steady diet of Neutral Zone and Defensive Zone starts. The Oilers could choose to anoint Lander their 4C or make him beat someone who has actually done the job in the NHL before.
DETROIT
C - David Legwand (33). 81GP, 14-37-51. Picking UFAs from the Red Wings feels a lot like picking which Golden Girl was going to have the best career moving forward. This Detroit team is just plain old. Defenseman Quincey was the best of the UFAs on D, but he looks and feels like a Petry clone and one is enough for Edmonton. Legwand, on the other hand could add size and depth down the middle for the Oil and still has enough offense in him to warrant time in the top 6. Unfortunately he’s at the age where those skills start to disappear in a hurry, and I cant imagine he wants to land on a rebuilding club while time is running out.
PHILADELPHIA
RW - Steve Downie (27). 62GP, 4-20-24. There is nothing likeable about Steve Downie and that is his best asset. He has a penchant for dirty play and a “crusty… personality on the ice. His numbers this year with Philly suggest he’s a bottom 6 player but with the Lightning he was able to accomplish more in an expanded role. He shot very poorly with just 4.8% as a Flyer but he’s a career 12.3% shooter so he should see a jump in goal scoring if the averages start to revert. He also sported a solid Corsi rating (49.6%) for a player who wasn’t gifted many Offensive Zone starts. I think he’s a good gamble if he’s paid like a bottom 6 player. The Oilers need more jerks who just might be able to play a bit. Frankly a line of Hendricks – Gordon – Downie has the ability to frustrate the heck out of the opposition on a nightly basis.
SAN JOSE
D - Dan Boyle (37). 75GP, 12-24-36. He’s old. I get it. But he’s also still a 21 minute a night Defender who produces offensively. The Oilers have Justin Schultz already but he has nobody to learn from on the ice who plays the way he does. Boyle can be that player, but he’d have to agree to leave California and winning hockey. That’s a tough sell. He isn’t the same player he was even couple of years ago, but on the Oilers he would be tops. Ultimately, Dan Boyle and Edmonton don’t seem to be a good fit. He’s still the best UFA on that team.
ST LOUIS
C - Steve Ott (31). 82GP, 9-14-23. The Blues have a lot of TUFAs this season, and the T stands for “Terrible…. Every single one of them has a question mark beside their names. Derek Roy? Vanilla. Brenden Morrow? Old. Ryan Miller? Overrated (extremely). The only one I would like to see near an Oiler uniform would be Ott because, again, he plays on the edge. He’s a pest in his best light and a villain in his worst. The Oiler Bottom 6 is in flux, he can help add to the culture they want. Unfortunately he’s a poor possession player and he disappeared down the stretch for the Blues. That said, he’s the best of the worst from St Louis, IMO. Yuck. If this list included RFAs then this would be a different story. Maybe next time.
TAMPA BAY
RW - Ryan Callahan (29). 65GP, 17-19-36. Callahan is a quality player who seemingly is demanding Star money and that raises eyebrows already, but that doesn’t the Oilers should avoid him at all costs. Although common sense dictates you don’t pay a 40-50 point guy more than Taylor Hall. If he loses the crazy pay demands then someone will get a serviceable player. The danger with Callahan is that he isn’t spectacular at any one thing out there and he’s at the age where any long term deal undoubtedly means buying years when he will be less of a player than he is today. The Oilers have plenty of wingers and I don’t even see a scenario where he would get the ice time he needs to put up the offense he did in NY or TB, but pickings are slim in Tampa’s UFAs.
THOUGHTS
If I’m targeting any of these players in July it’s Stastny and Downie. I think 20+ teams will be making a call to Stastny’s agent, but Downie might be a sleeper. For the most part, good players make it to Free Agency because they have some wart that their home club no longer wants to stare at or they want more money than they’re worth. Sometimes it’s a Cap decision or a player simply wanting a change, but the cream of the crop seem to avoid UFA status. Things start to get tricky after disappointing 1st round exits though. People talk about change, change, change and there gets to be a momentum about the team that pushes quality coaches and players out the door. I wonder how much the sting of a 1st round loss will affect the decisions these teams make.
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