Years ago, when it came to determining which NHL teams would or would not make the playoffs, one of the true bell weathers was the .500 point. This late in the season teams over .500 were in the race where teams under .500 were real long shots.
That has changed of course as the system of wins and losses has changed.
What does playing .500 mean anymore?
It would make sense that an NHL of 30 relatively balanced teams would see roughly half the teams finish above .500, half below .500, right? If there are only a few teams under .500 they should be WAY under .500....right? Since every game in the NHL ends with one winner and one loser that would make sense to me.
But how does .500 even work in a league that gives two kinds of losses? When you look at the 30 teams in the NHL right now and you look only at the first two columns, wins and losses, it is pretty staggering that ONLY 5 NHL teams out of 30 have actually been credited with more losses than wins...Five. Of course the discrepancy is that NHL teams are credited for "Overtime Losses" as well.
If you were to actually count overtime losses as losses, this is how the NHL really shakes out....and there are actually 15 teams who have left the arena feeling they have won more games than they have lost and there are 15 teams who have left the arena feeling they have lost more games than they have won.
1. St Louis +26 (games over .500) 2. Boston +23 3. Pittsburgh +21 4. Colorado +20 5. San Jose +19 6. Anaheim +18 7. Chicago +10 8. LA Kings +8 9. Montreal +5 10. Minnesota +5 11. Tampa +5 12. Toronto +3 13. Philadelphia +3 14. Columbus +3 15. NY Rangers +3 ------------------------ 16. Dallas -1 (games UNDER .500) 17. Phoenix -4 18. Washington -5 19. Detroit -7 20. Vancouver -8 21. Winnipeg -7 22. NJ -10 23. Nashville -10 24. Carolina -10 25. Ottawa -11 26. Calgary -14 27. NY Islanders -17 28. Florida -18 29. Edmonton -21 30. Buffalo -30
So this list is pretty eye opening to me.
In the actual standings the Montreal Canadiens are 37-25-7 and in second place in their division. The Philadelphia Flyers are 35-25-7 and in second in their division. The Ducks and the Sharks both have 97 points and are second and third in the NHL. Two points ahead of Boston and five ahead of Pittsburgh and four ahead of Colorado. But more Boston, Colorado and Pittsburgh's fans have watched their teams end games with what they would consider "wins" than either Anaheim or San Jose.
Since the playoffs are all about actual wins and actual losses, you also can't help but group the teams into three categories.
The Six Legit Stanley Cup Contenders: +18 and above ACTUAL .500
The Blues, The Bruins, The Penguins, The Avalanche, The Sharks, and The Ducks
The 9 Inside the Bubble Teams: from .500 to 10 games above ACTUAL .500
The Hawks, The Kings, The Canadiens, The Wild, The Lightning, The Maple Leafs, The Flyers, The Blue Jackets, and The Rangers.
The 10 Outside the Bubble Teams: from .500 - 11 games below ACTUAL .500
The Stars, The Yotes, The Caps, The Wings, The Canucks, The Jets, The Devils, The Preds, The Canes, and The Sens.
The 5 "In Need of" Rebuilding Teams: from -14 games below Actual .500 on down The Flames, The Islanders, The Panthers, The Oilers, and The Sabres...
How about Goal Differential?
Remember that blog I did early in the season discussing how there appeared to be a widening gap in goal differentials and a lessening parity in the NHL? Well it was not only correct, but it has grown far worse.
Right now the Blues are a +72 in Goals For/Against and the Sabres are a -70.
When you look the differential numbers you really see more groupings clearly...
5 Teams +40 and Higher.
Blues, Bruins, Hawks, Sharks, and Ducks.
10 Teams between -1 and +28
Avs, Kings, Lightning, Jackets, Rangers, Stars, Canadiens, Wild, and Flyers.
6 Teams from -5 to -13
Yotes, Caps, Maple Leafs, Jets, Devils, and Red Wings.
9 teams have given up 23 or more goals than they have scored.
Canucks, Hurricanes, Senators, Flames, Predators, Islanders, Panthers, Oilers, and Sabres
So what does this all tell us?
Well some teams are finding ways to win and some are finding ways to lose...
Of course many will say how goal differential over a season doesn't matter since it is game to game. If you lose by 1 it's the same as losing by 5 and some teams obviously play that way. Teams like Chicago who are only ten true games over .500 despite having scored 52 more goals than they have allowed. Drawing on these numbers you could almost say the Hawks are either really good at blowing out teams or finding ways to lose close games.
What conclusions do you draw?
more to come...