This article by Michael Traikos of the National Post is making the rounds on the Oilogosphere this morning as the writer took a shot at the Oilers' draft high to succeed model. He notes that the key to building through the Draft is getting players who can play in your system from the 2nd Round and beyond, that getting just 1 or 2 players per Draft isnt good enough.
That is the hope of every fan and every general manager. That an 18-year-old prospect can be the next Sidney Crosby, Jonathan Toews or Nathan MacKinnon — a talent who can immediately transform a bottom-feeder into a Stanley Cup contender.Of course, it does not quite work that way.
From 2010 to 2012, the Edmonton Oilers selected the top pick in the draft and yet they still finished with the third-worst record last season.
Traikos is right. It doesnt work that way. Sidney Crosby didnt exactly immediately changed the fate of the Penguins. Before him they drafted 1st Overall. AFTER him they drafted 2nd Overall. I hope they gave Sid a gold star or something for the immediate transformation he provided the Penguins.
Jonathan Toews as well. He IMMEDIATELY transformed the Blackhawks into a Stanley Cup contender. Well, I mean they finished below the Oilers in 20th place that season, but it was a Stanley Cup contendable 20th place.
And Nate MacKinnon didnt bring speed, scoring prowess, AND a Vezina worthy performance with him. The Avalanche did incredible things on the back of Varlamov's amazing season. MacKinnon also got to play on a team with several other offensive stars in the primes of their careers.
Back to the heart of the article, Edmonton is used as the example of what NOT to at the Draft table.
Of the seven selections that the Oilers made in 2009, only Magnus Paajarvi (218 games) and Anton Lander (94 games) reached the NHL. In the four years since, Edmonton has seen just three of its picks from the second round and beyond graduate to the NHL.Compare that to the Senators, who had six of their seven picks in 2008 reach the NHL and went 4-for-9 in 2009.
Wait a minute here, while I'm all for skewering the Oilers' draft record and their never ending quest for size and grit at the detriment of skill, we arent comparing Apples to Apples here. In the examples it's Edmonton 2009-Present and it's Ottawa 2009 and 2008. If there's one thing longtime Oiler blogger and all around sensible man Lowetide has hammered home about the Draft its that you need roughly 5 years to evaluate things. That makes 2009 and older fair game but are we really including very recent Oiler drafts as proof that they cant find NHL players???
Another issue is that we are just using the fact that a player played in even a single NHL game as the criteria for "Reaching the NHL". That definition may TECHNICALLY be accurate, but it is also misleading. Of those 6 Senators players to play in the NHL from that apparently superhuman 2008 draft, 3 of them have played fewer than 30 NHL games and one played just a single game.
If we are comparing Apples to Apples then the Oilers' 2008 Draft went 4 for 5 and we should be talking about how wicked amazing they are at drafting talent! And while we're at it the lauded Senators from 2010-Present are as equally terrible as the Oilers because not nearly enough time has passed. These players are still in the CHL or just making pro debuts.
Overall, yeah, drafting high every year isnt the key to success and yes you need depth players. That said, using the Oilers as the example of what not to do is a little disingenuous on this point. Edmonton is an example that drafting ALONE isnt going to get you a Cup contender, not that you need to get 4+ players from every draft to have a cup of coffee in the NHL to be a Cup contender.
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