The Sharks are struggling to score goals right now. The offensive core of Thornton, Pavelski, Marleau and Couture have slowed but are still providing the little bit of offense that has come around lately. The honeymoon start is over and the secondary scoring bucket is empty.
Tomas Hertl (10 pts in 23 games) and Matt Nieto (7 pts in 22 games) just aren't getting the job done in the top six but, honestly, who else would you put in there? They've tried just about everyone.
Matt Nieto's play through his 22 games has actually been pretty good (59.16 Fenwick% 5v5) despite his poor offensive numbers. Hertl is the same way. Despite being bounced around from line to line all year he still has a decent Fenwick% (51.65%), all things considered with the Sharks overall possession. Look at the chart from war-on-ice.com. Nieto is right up there with 19-8-39-12. Things are just not going their way.
I’d lay blame on their low totals to two things:
1. They don’t shoot enough. Nieto only has 37 shots through 22 games and most of those shots are high percentage chances, but he still boasts a dismal 2.7% shooting percentage. Hertl has taken even less shots (29) but holds a nice shooting percentage of 13.8%. If they put their lack of confidence aside, which surely they have to have right now, and shoot more in these areas better times are bound to be ahead. Look at the shots in close around the net, and the others from inside the top of the circle.
2. Terrible puck luck. Both Nieto and Hertl have more offensive talent than their point totals dictate. Playing the way they’re playing right now, Nieto especially, they should have more points. I’m not unrealistic, nor do I think either player is a superstar, but I don’t think 13-14 points in 22 games is too much to ask. That’s a 48-52 point season playing with two pretty talented guys in Marleau and Couture (Nieto) and Thornton and Pavelski (Hertl).
Hertl's 5v5 Fenwick is down from 54.93% last year and I’d wager that has a lot to do with his pinballing from line to line. He’s going to play better with Thornton and Pavelski on the top line, that’s a pretty simple observation.
Nieto’s possession is actually up from last year, despite the Sharks overall being down. Nieto is 59.16% this year compared to 53.28% last season and he’s playing tougher competition this year. Nieto leads the Sharks in 5v5 Fenwick %. He’s doing things well, he’s just not being rewarded on the score sheet and at the end of the day that’s what most people look at.
San Jose needs those two players to find their groove and start producing offensively or the goals will continue to be scarce. The Sharks big 4 up front can’t continue to carry the load all by themselves. They need some pressure taken off them by having some secondary scoring, even if it comes from players on their line.
I'm not expecting a point a game from Hertl and Nieto, but they should be producing more if only for the fact that their linemates are gifted hockey players.
At this point, and I know I’ll be alone here on this one, Tyler Kennedy (55.49% 5v5) is a better current option for the third line with Sheppard and Wingels than Barclay Goodrow (47.90%). With that said, Desjardins has struggled and the fourth line might be better served with Goodrow-Tierney-Hayes for a few games. Things certainly couldn't result much worse than 3-5-2 and I think you could roll the fourth line with a little more comfort knowing that there is offensive talent there better than Desjardins/McGinn.
What’s your ideal forward lines? Forget about who Wilson will or will not waive and have at them in the comment section.
Thanks for reading.