Back in September the day the point total odds were released by Bodog many on twitter were talking about some of the bets that could be made and how out of whack the lines were. I took a flyer on four teams that I though were likely to disappoint based on the line set by Bodog. There are as listed below:
Took the under on the Avalanche reaching 96.5 points Took the under on the Bruins reaching 112.5 points Took the over on the Islanders reaching 81.5 points Took the over on the Predators reaching 76.5 points
Here is the ARTICLE if you want to see some of my reasoning and process.
Now after 25 games or so, (depending on the team) it's time to see where I stand as we near the 1/3 marker of the season.
The Avalanche currently sit at 12th in the west with 23 points in 24 games so projecting out on this points per game pace they look to finish at 78 points.
18 point wiggle room.
The Bruins were the other 'under' team I took and the loss of Kerjci and Chara for an extended time certainly hasn't hurt my chances. I wasn't betting on that but I'm not complaining either. They have 29 points in 24 games and project out to a 99 point finish.
13 point wiggle room.
The next two teams I took the 'over' on just to make it fun and split up the wager.
The Islanders have been a great early season story so far, much like the Flames but the former seems to have a fancy stats sustainability to them though. They have 34 points in 24 games and project to a 116 point finish. I'm liking this.
44 point wiggle room
Finally I ventured into the Western conference on the 'over' and took a look at the Predators, the team that no one seemed to really understand based on their dramatic shift this past off season. One word: Rinne, is all you need to know. They are LEADING the Wets with 34 points in 23 games and project out to 121 points.
44 point wiggle room again.
I'm feeling pretty good about this but I am getting a little nervous with Boston. Perhaps they were having some pretty bad luck and now that changes? Regardless if I go three for four I'll be pretty stoked. Let's see what happens after 41 games. By that point we can look back to past season and see if any teams bucked their projection and exceeded or crashed in the final half.