Today on Twitter the early activity was about Bodog's
point totals for the NHL regular season. To say there are some intriguing options is at best a major understatement.
I'm not a gambler, I rarely do any kind of government/lottery corporation sports action, nor do I participate in online gambling, until today. Yes a fool and his money are soon parted and that may be the case, but I'm not so sure.
Here's what I did today:
Took the under on the Avalanche reaching 96.5 points
Took the under on the Bruins reaching 112.5 points
Took the over on the Islanders reaching 81.5 points
Took the over on the Predators reaching 76.5 points
I'm not betting the house, nor my children's education, let alone a night at the bar with the
Arctic Ice Hockey Guys but I thought it was worth putting some money down because those are too tempting.
Avalance
Anyone who paid attention to the Avalanche last year knows they got some luck, just how much remains to be seen and that's what this year is all about. They lost Stastny and added Iginla and Briere plus a former Jet by the name of Zach Redmond. Before last season Varlamov was a NHL career .913 goalie in all situation and then went to .927 in 63 games played. His career high before that was 53 games played and a .913 average that season.
Last year in 5 v 5 The Avalanche had the 3rd best PDO of 1022. The year before 976! in 2012-13 there 5 v 5 Fenwick was 46.9% in 2013-14 46.8%. The Avs flat lined on possession and got bloody lucky between the pipes last year. I wonder how hard they land when they come back to earth.
Bruins
Boston is another team that I think is going to hit a bit of skid. Did not do much, (anything) to improve and lost a 30 goal guy in Iginla. In 12-13 they had a PDO of 1005 and Fenwick at 54% in 13-14 they jumped to 1025 PDO yet fell a bit to 53.4% in Fenwick. Is this a team with cap problems, an ageing stud in Chara who can keep that up? Perhaps, but the east may be gaining some ground on them. I like that under.
Islanders
The Isles made some moves adding Grabovksi, Kulemin and Halak this past off season without doing much else to diminish their group. Grabovski is a possession darling and could be a neat fit in that young developing group on Long Island. Halak is bound to give them something better than Nabokov, Poulin and Nilsson who all posted Pavelec numbers or worse.
Last year the Isles had a team PDO of 984 at 5 v 5 and a Fenwick of 49.1% In 12-14 they Islanders were the 8th seed with a PDO of 990 and Fenwick at 50.8%- I expect them to trend up to that level and if they play at the 12-13 points per game pace they are hitting at least 90 this coming season.
Predators
Yes they are in arguably the toughest conference in the league. Yes they are a small market budget team and yes they have Pekka Rinne back, hopefully for a full season. The Preds also have a new coach, new thinking and a few new players like Jokinen, Roy and Ribeiro making them rather deep down the middle. Along with ageing shot-blocking stud Volchenkov there is some reason to feel optimistic about the Preds, at least from a betting point of view.
Last year the Preds had a 989 PDO and 49.4% Fenwick but with only 24 games of Rinne. The year before, which was a down year for Rinne, they had a 997 PDO and a 47.4% Fenwick. Two seasons ago the Preds finishes 4th in the west with 104 points. Last year they had 88 and I just don't see them taking a 12 point tumble when adding Rinne back.
I'm no betting expert but I have always felt bookmakers struggle with hockey. Long before internet betting was the norm I had pulled myself deep out of the red at Vegas a few times by making some sports bets on hockey. The interesting thing now is we have some new stats that might help improve the lay man's odds. That is until Vegas and the other bookies figure them out, and that is one thing you can bet on with certainty.
Winnipeg Jets Blogger •Winnipeg Jets Writer • 
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