Responsible Organizations Don’t Overreact To Small Sample Sizes (Penguins)

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Game 7. The entire season boils down to one game. Large sample sizes of data can tell a lot about a team, but throw it all out the window, this here is a situation where anything can happen and usually does.

The Penguins and Rangers have both looked awesome at times in this series and they have both looked atrocious at times. The Rangers are the team that has looked awesome most recently.

For the Penguins tonight is a night where you want to see your stars carry the team to victory. They get paid the most money, they are difference makers on mostly every night, but they are also the specific targets of the opposition’s game plan. More times than not Game 7 heroes come in the form of a Max Talbot, Mike Rupp, and Ruslan Fedotenko (all former Penguins with 2 goal games in Game 7 of Stanley Cup Final).

The problem with having one game mean so much to a team’s season is that it can often times lead to drastic overreactions.

Players that have been great for the organization who play bad in a Game 7 can be looked at as part of the problem instead of part of the solution. The heroes who score the goals might not be good players, but by scoring in that isolated moment they sometimes increase their perceived value.

No matter what happens tonight a responsible organization will already know the players they want to keep and the players they are contemplating moving on from in the offseason. Tonight’s game should have nothing to do with it. Tonight is just one game (a VERY important one!) but you cannot throw aside the larger sample size of work. Overreactions lead to poor choices. Poor choices lead to wasting the primes of players like Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin.

Right now the Penguins are closer to winning a Stanley Cup than missing the playoffs. Major changes have the potential to flip that dynamic.

The cap is going up, the Penguins have plenty of roster flexibility heading into this offseason. Keep the difference makers and debate the rest.

Firing a coach is one thing, good coaches move on all the time, getting rid of generational talents is a completely other thing and an idea that should never be entertained.

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The Penguins did not participate in line rushes this morning and the Rangers did not skate at all. As of right now the lines are a secret. I believe the Penguins will go into Game 7 with a very similar lineup, the one change that I could potentially see would be Tanner Glass in for Joe Vitale, quite frankly that is a lateral move.

Past results in Game 7s don’t mean anything, only tonight matters however the Penguins did stay in a Pittsburgh hotel last night, this could be the reason why:

I think there is a positive in having the team together with limited distractions heading into a big matchup.

Game 7s are emotional events, everything is under the microscope

Giving up the first goal in a huge game is a severe letdown, as the stats show it is very tough for teams to mentally overcome that kind of human emotion.

So far the team that has scored first in this series has won every game. Will Game 7 break the trend?

Crosby and Malkin both met with the media yesterday, this is not very common. Both were in good spirits:

So, who do ya got?

Thanks for reading!

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