Follow me on twitter Follow @GunnerStaal
Its draft day and the hockey world will converge on the city of Philadelphia for what should be a night full of young players dreams coming true, blockbuster trades, and any other minor moves that will transpire.
Currently the Pittsburgh Penguins still hold their first round draft pick (#22 overall), something that they went without last year because of the Jarome Iginla trade. Surprisingly enough last year was only the 2nd time that the Penguins went without a first round pick during the Ray Shero era. The other time they forfeited their 1st round pick was in 2008 in the Pascal Dupuis trade, some guy named Hossa was also involved in the deal.
Since winning the Stanley Cup the Penguins have taken Simon Despres, Beau Bennett, Joe Morrow, Derrick Pouliot, and Olli Maatta in the 1st round. Outside of Joe Morrow the Penguins have done quite well with these picks. Each of these players still have the opportunity to be a contributing part of the team moving forward.
In order to compete for the Stanley Cup you need contributions from younger quality players that are playing for peanuts. The Penguins have the opportunity today to add another quality player with the #22 overall pick. You can certainly find valid arguments for moving the #22 pick for immediate help to the roster, but the kind of proven talent the Penguins would be looking to acquire with the #22 pick (likely packaged with other assets) would also come with a proven price tag in the form of a higher cap hit. That isn't to say that Rutherford will definitely hold onto the pick.
For argument's sake let's say the Penguins keep the pick, what should they be looking for?
I believe their preference should be to take a forward who has the highest ceiling. I understand that there is usually more risk when drafting players with high ceilings but that is what you should do in the 1st round. You should be looking to take a dynamic talent in round 1, a talent that you otherwise would not be able to get in later rounds. I say this because I believe many times a team will take the safer player to avoid the fear of whiffing on a selection. Sure, the safe player can turn out to be an effective NHL player but most times they aren't huge difference makers and just play the vanilla minutes. The GM can claim that the player has contributed to the NHL and they avoid egg on their face from not "screwing the pick up".
Where the Penguins are drafting there should be some forwards that fit this bill. One of the more appealing options could be Nikolay Goldobin of the Sarnia Sting. Goldobin is 6'0" 185 pounds and has tremendous puck skill and finishing ability. Last year for Sarnia he had 38 goals, 56 assists for 94 points in 67games. Hockeybuzz's Adam French actually has Goldobin going to the Penguins in his mock draft. He had this to say about him
After a solid rookie campaign (30g-68p), he exploded this season as most predicted, despite a rather inept team overall. The Sting were a steaming pile of…you know…this past season, but draft eligibles Goldobin and De Angelo shined regardless. He finished 7th overall in scoring and second behind only Michael Dal Colle in draft eligible scoring (Bennett played 10 less games than both of them). As you can deduce, Goldobin is a scoring winger, he’s one of the more dangerous forwards in this draft and despite being Russian one would hope the move to Sarnia and expected to stay another season there will keep the “stain… off him. Excellent scoring instincts and a wicked wrister are his bread and butter, however this season he showed signs of evolving his offensive game beyond just being a triggerman, something that plagued him in his rookie campaign and made him seem like a puck hog. All the offensive gifts are there to be a top-6 scorer in the NHL some day, the skating, the shot, the puck handling, he brings a little bit of it all.
That is the upside, the downside is like it is with most dynamic young forwards who are not slated for the top 10, his own end. As a winger I don't really carry the same concerns about defensive play as I would a center. Wing is way easier to play and quite frankly not hard to learn to do it properly. Take the upside, work with the player on his shortcomings, that is what development is all about. Considering you can't teach a player dynamic skill, always look for that when drafting early on.
Will Goldobin be there for the Penguins? I don't know. I just wanted to use him as an example of the kind of player that the Penguins should be targeting if they keep their pick. Another high risk player with high reward is Josh Ho-Sang. The Penguins don't have selections in the 2nd or 3rd rounds this year, they will have to swing for the fences with their 1st round pick. Take advantage of the teams that are too afraid to take the risk. I imagine if they redid last year's draft Valeri Nichushkin would have never made it to the Dallas Stars.
Here is what you don't want to see in the first round, "The Penguins select with their #22 pick in the draft ________ from the USA Development Team who's ceiling is that of a 3rd liner. He works really hard, has a great battle level and can chip in 10-15 goals per year"
Save that nonsense for the later rounds. You don't draft for bottom 6 help in the 1st round.
Another fun dynamic at the draft is the trading of big name players. The Penguins may not be actively shopping James Neal but they have been receiving a ton of phone calls about him. If the Penguins get an offer that bowls them over, James Neal could be playing for another franchise by the end of the night. Much like my opinion stated above about the 1st round, you don't trade star goal scorers for bottom 6 help. The idea that you would trade James Neal for two 3rd line players is foolish. A calculating and smart organization can always find bottom 6 help and can usually do so on the cheap. Never trade premium assets for a collection of lesser assets. Quality over quantity.
The other option of course is just keeping Neal and seeing what happens under a brand new regime. It is also worth mentioning that there is no rule that says he has to play with Malkin, perhaps switch it up at times and place him with Crosby. This applies to Chris Kunitz as well.
I would like to pass along some links to help assist in the enjoyment of tonight's draft. These people work very hard and tirelessly to try and educate people on what I consider a near impossible task of being accurate. Projecting the career paths of 17 and 18 year olds is not easy, but these guys are as good as anybody and you'll be better off for reading them.
Hockeybuzz's Todd Cordell has an archive of the top 30 OHL draft prospects that you can find here
He was also a guest on our Hockey Hurts podcast and talked about tonight's draft. His interview is at the very beginning. You can find that here
Hockeybuzz's Adam French has been doing a mock draft for the past 30 days. He has worked backwards from pick 30 all the way down to the #1 overall pick which should come out later today. You can see all of his player writeups in his archive here
Jesse Marshall of the Faceoff Factor is one of the better Penguins writers out there, the draft is one of his "specialties". You can see his top 50 rankings by going here. You can get the pdf version of his top 50 here
Ian Altenbaugh has his Penguins draft preview for Hockey's Future here
On a side note I think that the Buffalo Sabres will be the most fun team to watch tonight. They have a full litter of 1st and 2nd round picks this year and next and I think they will be very active. Imagine if they walk away with Sam Reinhart, Nikolay Goldobin, and Josh Ho-Sang after tonight. Exciting night for the folks in Western NY for sure.
Thanks for reading!
Follow me on twitter Follow @GunnerStaal