Everybody seems to have it in their heads that the Oilers, sick and tired of drafting extremely talented young forwards, should trade back from the 3rd Overall position because Ekblad will likely be gone by then and all that would be left are more skilled forwards. Naturally the Oilers are so terrible that ALMOST ANYTHING plus a top 10 pick should get the job done...right?
Um...no. Stop it.
At the NHL level the Oilers' organization needs a 1D a lot more than they need a 1C. Is there even any doubt about that? They already have RNH to pivot the top line and they have extremely talented forwards like Hall and Eberle to carry the load while Nugent-Hopkins continues to grow into his own. Then of course theres the 2nd wave of skilled forwards that features Yakupov, Perron, and Gagner.
But the Defense is clearly lacking a 25+ minute a night Defender who can match up against the opposition's best, QB the Power Play, and move the puck. They have Petry who they've consistently matched up against the best opposition. They have Schultz who has been gifted a ton of PP time. And they have a few guys who can move the puck a little if they have time and space, but there isnt anybody on the Oilers right now who can do it all.
So that might give the impression that the Oilers are Ekblad or bust at the 2014 Draft, and I dont blame anyone for thinking that if they havent looked any deeper into the organization's strengths. The strength of the team's prospect pool is at the Defense position. Marincin wowed in his first year with the team looking good matching up with Petry against the best. Klefbom is transitioning from successful development in Europe to playing the professional North American game. After those two they have Gernat, Musil, and Simpson. Plus they have Darnell Nurse playing close to 30 minutes a night for the Greyhounds.
Conversely the forwards in the prospect pool are questionable at best. There isnt a player they've drafted or signed that looks capable of playing the 2C position in the NHL who is under 25. The list of players —organization wide— who might even be close to being a top 6 forward is: Mark Arcobello. That is all. Everybody else is tracking to be bottom 6 players if they make the NHL. Lander cant bring his AHL points to the NHL for reasons I'm sure he would love to know. Pitlick looks like a North-South plugger who might play a full NHL season at some point in his career. Khaira, Moroz, and Chase are CHL hopefuls who have some intriguing qualities but wouldnt be considered blue chippers either.
So yes, Ekblad would look nice in an Oiler uniform and he would likely jump all of those Defensemen in the Organization because his potential to develop into a legit top pairing player is very high, but if he's gone Edmonton can address a deeper hole in their organization. Draisaitl, Reinhart, or Bennett can be drafted and free up the team to move Gagner and be confident his spot will eventually be filled from within. Or they can keep 89 and know that they dont have to rush the best forward prospect in the system.
However, none of those things will happen if the team trades down from number 3. There are no other high end Defensemen in the Draft that the team would feel comfortable drafting and the best of the rest for the forwards are more wingers. Moving back in the draft doesnt match up well for the Oilers this year unless there is a young NHL calibre 2C or 1-2D coming back Edmonton's way.
It makes very little sense for the Oilers to move backwards out of the range of the elite prospects just because they have drafted high in the past and failed to become better. It makes very little sense for the Oilers to move back if Ekblad is gone by the time they act at 3rd Overall. It just simply doesnt make a lot of sense, period. And, the only way it starts to make sense for the Oilers is when clubs who want that 3rd pick start to offer players their fanbases dont want to see moved.
Moving back would be easy. Moving back and making it worth it to rob the organization of Ekblad, Bennett, Reinhart, or Draisaitl is a lot more difficult.
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