The Winnipeg Jets have a goalie problem. That's right- it's not a controversy. There's a difference but many would have you believe he discussion is either #TeamPavelec or #TeamMonty. It's either or and that's just the way it goes,
Here's what we do know: Ondrej Pavelec is not a 70 game goalie. He may not be a 60 game goal either and his goldilocks zone is probably in the 50-57 starts per season. Look at his year from 2010-11 HERE and notice how it stands out from the other seasons.
What is unfortunate is that we do not have a larger sample size to understand what happens to Pavelec after the theoretical 'goldilocks' zone. So in his only season where he has gone over that amount of games here is what happened.
Games 1-58 2.77 GAA and .910 Save % Games 59-68 3.745 GAA and .877 Save %
There is the ugly reality of Ondrej Pavelec before he signed a five year deal that off season.
The Jets have him, committed to him and will likely have him until the contract ends. The question no becomes- are they prepared to use him to maximize his value?
The last game before the Christmas break was an easy choice to start Montoya. The second game of a back-to-back where every piece of relevant data says Pavelec should be the team's last resort yet he started. On the quick two-game road trip to Columbus and Buffalo Montoya started the first game and Pavelec came in to play against Buffalo after three days rest, also another indicator.
He allowed 4 goals and had an .871 save %. While Pavelec is optimal at 1 or 2 days rest there are going to be times that he has to play in those situations. Against Florida three days later was one of those situations and he was a .913 and 2 goals allowed.
What is obvious is that Pavelec needs to be used better and put in the optimal situation to have success. By doing so might have some sort of placebo effect on the skaters in front.
On average Pavelec faces more shots than Montoya per game and whether there is any reason for it is hard to prove. Let's assume the team trusts Pavelec and believes he can make some of his extraordinary saves to get them out of trouble and Montoya doesn't. (Although Monty proved otherwise last night) If that's the case perhaps the team/skaters needs to know that Pavelec needs he same commitment to defense and shot suppression that Montoya gets.
The greater point here is that with the season all but assured to be another non-appearance in the post season is now the time to start experimenting with player usage as it relates to the current goaltending tandem?
That's if the Jets want to do so. One has to look at the current state of affairs and wonder why this has not been done earlier. Would anyone be surprised if the Jets wanted to manage Montoya's numbers more in the hopes of retaining him at a cheaper price for the next season? It may sound ridiculous and somewhat petty but there's good reason to believe that Chevy has had an influence on goaltending usage for this very reason. At least that is what a source close to the Jets has relayed to me.
Noel seems to start Montoya out of necessity not by plan or situation. Why?
If this team wants to win, and compete maybe they are better than their record in one-goal games suggests and all it would take is better player usage. If Noel is coaching to keep his job it might be best to try something he has been loathe to do- look at the stats and make decisions which have the best probability of success. Montoya deserves that much. So does Pavelec- we all have our limits and Pavelec's are clearly on display through no fault of his own.