Less than 48 hours after winning Game 7 at home against the Flyers, the Rangers head out on the road to take on another Pennsylvania team, the Penguins. Pittsburgh had their own hard-fought series, prevailing in six over a valiant and gritty Blue Jackets squad. For these two division rivals, it's the first playoff meeting since 2008 with few faces remaining on this Rangers' team since falling 4-1 to the Penguins. This will be a contrast in styles to the match-up against Philly, where physical play was more the norm, which could either be a boon or bust for New York, since this fits more into the way coach Alain Vigneault likes to play.
Just like the match-up against Philly, these are two teams with a healthy dislike for one another. Pittsburgh is 4-0 against New York in the playoffs, though the '89, '96 and '08 losses are towards the back of most Rangers' fans memories. The '92 loss, thanks to the "slash", "broken wrist", "miraculous recovery" and "55-footer through the five-hole" resonate a lot more and harder with us. Payback would be nice and no better place to start than this year, with the two teams that most felt would meet the past two seasons finally facing each other in the playoffs.
For the Penguins view and some great advance stats, check out Ryan Wilson's blog .
Line Combinations and Analysis:
Rangers:
Forwards: 61 Rick Nash - 21 Derek Stepan - 26 Martin St. Louis 67 Benoit Pouliot - 16 Derick Brassard - 36 Mats Zuccarello 62 Carl Hagelin - 19 Brad Richards - 13 Dan Carcillo 22 Brian Boyle - 28 Dominic Moore - 15 Derek Dorsett
Extras: Jesper Fast (played games 1-2 and sat the next five, likely on the bench for the series healthy), JT Miller (played games 3-4 versus Philly, depending on how series goes, play of Carcillo and Kreider's health, he could see action) and Chris Kreider (recovering from left hand injury; still can't fully stickhandle with that hand but speculation he is could be back later this series).
(The Rangers offense relied on balanced scoring to get past the Flyers. Eight Rangers tallied two goals to beat Philly, which those of us that have followed the team all year comes as no surprise, since AV likes to roll four lines. That is what makes this team different than others, especially the bottom-six. In addition, as Tal Pinchevsky pointed out in his column, 12 Rangers had at least two assists in the series.
Rick Nash did have several assists but failed to score, which has been his playoff history to date. The good news is that he was much more engaged in Game 7, with three hits and shots in the first while making several non-scoring plays to aid the victory. That said, for NY to beat Pitt, Nash will have to score. Maybe just like St. Louis did against Philly, finding his touch, similar will happen to Nash. Counting on Carcillo to score twice might be a bit of a stretch, but I also expect Brassard to be much better due to the open ice and style play, which will also benefit Zuccarello.
Beyond Nash, to me the key up front is Richards. He had a good series, especially Game 1 against Philly, and will need to do similar against Pittsburgh. If he contribute and Hagelin can use his speed to create and finish chances, then NY can roll the four lines. That fourth line is a great equalizer in the series and it will be interesting to see if they match up against Sidney Crosby's - less likely - or Evgenia Malkin's - better fit - line. The absence of a quality fourth line cost the Rangers in '12 and '13 and was a big reason why they beat Philly, similar play here would markedly increase NY's chances in the series. If Kreider can come back, that would a huge boost to the team and offense, as his speed, skill and size would play well in this series).
Defense 27 Ryan McDonagh - 5 Dan Girardi 18 Marc Staal - 6 Anton Stralman 17 John Moore - 8 Kevin Klein
Extras: Raphael Diaz (a heck of a lot better than having to dress Roman Hamrlik) and Justin Falk.
(Staal was hands down the Rangers' best d-man in the Flyers' series. He and Stralman matched up against the Giroux line, nearly as much as the McDonagh-Girardi one. McDonagh struggled most of the series before righting the ship and having his best game of the series in Game 7; looking like the Norris Trophy candidate he was prior to getting injured. There is some speculation that his shoulder is still bothering him or he has some other injury, but hopefully his performance in Game 7 removes some of those questions and doubt. Girardi was up-and-down, solid the first five games, lousy in Game 6 and rebounded in Game 7. One of those two pairing will match up against the Crosby one and the other against Malkin's line. Pitt may try and get the match-ups at home against the third pairing to take advantage of Moore and Klein. Moore's skating ability and transition from D to O also may be a key to advantage of the Pitt's third D and Scuderi's lack of speed from the blue line. That skating ability is what also sets the Rangers D apart from Pitt, save for Letang and Maatta, as Niskanen is better once he gains the offense zone, not necessarily through the neutral one. I said last series Diaz could get in, which he didn't, but the early-schedule - calling for four games in six nights and six in nine overall when including Game 6 and 7 against Philly, could cause a shift. If there is a "weak-link," it's Klein, though he has been steady since coming over for MDZ and the Rangers could swap him for Diaz to take advantage of the latter's puck-moving skills, ability on the PP and fresh legs. The key will be for the Rangers to withstand the offensive pressure the Flyers exert without taking too many penalties, leading to PP chances for Pitt).
Goaltending 30 Henrik Lundqvist 33 Cam Talbot
(Lundqvist wasn't heavily challenged against Philly, but came up big when needed, especially in Game 7. He was "outplayed," mainly because the Philly goalie stole it, in Games 2 (Emery) and 4 (Mason). In Game 7, Mason kept Philly in it in the second period, while Lundqvist stoned Philly in the third. He improved his home mark in Games 7 to 3-0 and 4-1 overall with a sub-2.00 GAA. In this series, on paper, the biggest edge is between the pipes. Lundqvist will need to be at the top of his game and make that believed to be gap, a real one, for NY to advance to the ECF. If that happens and the offense does what we think they can do, NY should be able to get past Pittsburgh. We will have to see how the workload impacts Lundqvist, since the burden will be on his nightly).
Penguins
Forwards 14 Chris Kunitz- 87 Sidney Crosby - 22 Lee Stempniak 36 Jussi Jokinen- 71 Evgeni Malkin - 18 James Neal 19 Beau Bennett - 16 Brandon Sutter - 46 Joe Vitale 15 Tanner Glass - 57 Marcel Goc - 27 Craig Adams
Scratches - Brian Gibbons (could replace Tanner Glass), Jayson Megna and Taylor Pyatt
(Any conversations on the Penguins begins and ends with Crosby. While that might be viewed as a slight to Malkin, the general view is that if you stop Crosby, you stop the Penguins. Of course, given what we saw against Columbus, especially in Game 6, that is not true and NY knows that both centermen are world class and capable of taking over games on their own. Pitt shuffled their lines against Columbus, swapping Stempniak and Bennett, to generate more offensive. Crosby's possession numbers were excellent but he was frustrated by Brandon Dubinsky planting himself on Sid - and pretty much in his jersey - throughout the series, which impacted his offensive numbers. Malkin took over and won Game 6 for Pittsburgh with his hat trick. Kunitz and Neal have been Rangers' killers in the past, with Neal having an edge to him, and at times, he goes over it. Sutter is a tough-two way center, who upped his game in round one. The four line is one of grit, with Glass the most physical presence and Goc able to lead the cycle down low. If necessary, Pitt will move Malkin up, Sutter up and Stempniak to the third line with Goc and Bennett to create more of a forechecking trio, with that line having success against Columbus' top line. That grouping could match up against the Stepan or Brassard line, if Pittsburgh opts for that route. The Rangers can't allow Pitt to get rolling, because once they do, the ice will tilt and it would be a downhill plane for the Penguins to play on).
Defense 7 Paul Martin - 58 Kris Letang 3 Olli Maatta - 2 Matt Niskanen 4 Rob Scuderi - 41 Roberto Bortuzzo
Scratches - Brooks Orpik (injured), Deryk Engelland (healthy)
(On paper, this is a solid D, especially when Orpik is back, but one with flaws, though overall, much better than the Flyers' D. Letang is a high-risk, high-reward player, who is still working his way back from his unfortunately stroke. When Orpik went out, Martin was paired with Letang, and Letang had his two best games of the playoffs. Martin scored eight points - as did Niskanen - and while he doesn’t get the publicity of Letang, he has been the Penguins' best D by far the past several seasons.
If the Neal-Goligoksi trade wasn't imbalanced enough, Niskanen was brilliant this year and carried that forward into the playoffs. He has become a solid, two-way player, but his offense has become tremendously dangerous, especially on the PP. Maatta struggled under the weight of replacing Letang, but has settled back into his second-line pairing role; one that best suits him right now. If Orpik can't go, it will be Bortuzzo, who brings a physical nature and is gritty. He likely will get paired with Scuderi, though that would leave Pitt vulnerable to speed through the neutral zone, so Martin could be with Bortuzzo and Scuderi once again with Letang to balance out the pairings.
In the past, the Rangers used to target a blueliner and punish him - as they did with Mike Green and Erik Karlsson - which they could do here. Maybe it's Letang or Niskanen or Martin, but Pitt has more options than Philly did in that regard, which helps them.
Goaltenders Marc-Andre Fluery Jeff Zatkoff Tomas Vokoun
(Emery and Mason had their moments against the Rangers, with each stealing a game. Fleury will be Fleury, moments of brilliance followed by others where he looks lost. To me, the jury is still out on him. He was the main culprit last year for Pittsburgh's loss and maybe even the year before, as his playoff performance has degraded rapidly since winning the Cup. Maybe he is fragile mentally, as many believe, but he still posted a .948 even-strength save percentage, third best so far these playoffs. The problem is the soft ones look so bad, that if you accelerate the pressure, he could crack. If he does, Pitt could turn to Vokoun, who missed most of the year recovering from a blood clot, had a short conditioning stint in the AHL and was the third goalie against Columbus. Zatkoff was solid as the second goalie, but Pitt has turned to Vokoun before to rescue them, but for now, it's the Flower's show.)
PP Units:
Pouliot-Brassard-Zucc-McDonagh-Richards Nash-Stepan-St. Louis-Girardi-Moore
(The Rangers PP was brilliant in games 1 and 2 and then fell off the face of the earth. They missed on their last 21 attempts with player and puck movement but a memory. The drop off pass and attempted speed through the neutral zone was laughable, as Richards is ill-suited for that role. To me, I would either activate Diaz or have Moore assume that role from Richards, since he is a liability and could be exposed doing that in this series. Getting Kreider back would also help, but if Pitt opts for the stack the blueline strategy Philly used, unless AV and Scott Arniel make an adjustment, the Rangers are in trouble. Overloading a zone or dumping softly and then chasing would help, so they can try and gain the zone and set up. Pitt struggled on the penalty kill after the Olympics, as Ryan Wilson pointed out - just 80.2% - and they didn't have an easy time against Columbus, who went 7-for-27. Maybe Arniel can see what they did, determine if it matches what system he employed there and bring it over here for this series, because what they did versus Philly in Games 3-7 stunk.)
Crosby-Malkin-Kunitz-Niskanen-Martin Bennett-Jokinen-Sutter- Letang-Neal
(Pittsburgh was strong during the regular season and went 6-for-29 against Columbus, which was huge reason why they won the series. New York had moments on the PK against Philly and then struggled in others. First and foremost, staying out of the box is key. Then if not, the play up front with Boyle/D. Moore, Nash, Stepan, Hagelin and St. Louis will be critical to shutting off passing lanes to aid the big four on D. Of course, Lundqvist as the back line of defense will need to be a stalwart. Pittsburgh has elite puck, especially when Niskanen and Martin handle the points, and player movement, leading to open shooting lanes. Plus, Kunitz and Neal are willing to pay the price in front to score dirty goals when the pretty plays fail. If looking at an area where Pitt has a major advantage over NY, this is it. Whoever wins this battle, likely wins the series)
No. 2 Rangers vs. No. 1 Penguins (Metro Division) - Eastern Conference Semi-Finals Game 1: Rangers at Penguins Fri., May 2 at 7 p.m. (NBCSN, CBC) Game 2: Rangers at Penguins Sun., May 4 at 7:30 p.m. (NBCSN, CBC) Game 3: Penguins at Rangers, Mon., May 5 at 8 p.m. (NBCSN, CBC) Game 4: Penguins at Rangers, Wednesday, May 9 at 7 p.m. (NBCSN, CBC) Game 5*: Rangers at Penguins, Fri., May 9 at TBD Game 6*: Penguins at Rangers, Sun., May 11 at TBD Game 7*: Rangers at Penguins, Tue., May 13 at TBD
Possible Unsung Heroes: We all know how important the big bpoys are to the Rangers and Penguins. In addition, the play of Girardi and McDonagh for NY and Martin/Niskanen for Pittsburgh are keys. I want to focus on two players each, while not unsung, may be keys to the series.
For the Rangers, last series, I said Hagelin and the fourth line. I missed on Hagelin but hit on the fourth line. This series, I will go with whoever plays opposite Richards and Hagelin and the fourth line again. Carcillo and Miller each had big games when coming back into the lineup. Carcillo scoring in games 3 and 7 while Miller had a solid game 5. If NY can get that kind of surprising production or Kreider comes back, it's a big benefit. The fourth line won the first series and will be a key here to neutralize one of Pitt's top-two lines. In addition, they are able to get the puck in deep, cycle, grind and wear down the opponent while also contributing offense.
For Pitt. it's Letang and Sutter. Letang had a solid last two games, and if he is able to carry that forward into this series, it makes Pitt and their D that much tougher. Sutter had three goals against Columbus and really was a presence. If he is even a semblance of that this series, coupled with Crosby and Malkin, all of a sudden that center position becomes even more dominant.
Edges:
Even-Strength - Pitt scored 21 goals in six games, six on PP, 2 SHG and one ENG, so 12 on 5-on-5. New York scored 19 in seven games, three on PPG, no SHG and one ENG, so 15 on 5-on-5. Mild edge to NY but think they may be marginally better in general than Pitt when 5-on-5
PP - No contest, Pitt
PK - Rangers, slightly, though not great against Philly, but Pitt struggled down the stretch after the Olympics and weren't good against Columbus
Forwards - Penguins, more talent up front, so edge is mainly on top-six, but offset by Rangers edge in bottom-six, regardless which line - Richards or Brassard - you consider the third line.
Defense - Rangers, but if Orpik is healthy and/or Letang plays like he did in Games 5 and 6, the gap gets narrowed
Goalie - Rangers, because of Hank and Fleury's past issues
Playoff Experience - lots of experience on both teams. Pitt has several remaining from when they won the Cup and been in the playoffs annually, same with NY, who has the most games played the past few seasons. Pretty even.
Coaching - very, very, very slight edge to Rangers as AV has been a steady hand throughout and the players believe in the system. Questions on his ability to adjust game-to-game and in-game, especially seen on PP struggles, but overall solid. Bylsma dealt with injury after injury, kept Pitt pushing forward and won the division. Some questions as to his coaching aptitude arose especially during the Olympics but a solid coach.
Intangibles - mild edge to Pitt, due to home-ice and ridiculous early-schedule. Four games in five nights, or for NY, five in eight and six in nine when add in Games 6 and 7 against Philly. Thanks Billy Joel and the Liberty, unsure why those games couldn't have just been moved, plus NBC and the TV schedule. Perception that Pitt and the fanbase wanted NY over Philly, providing a little chip on the shoulder for the Rangers
Prediction - close series, with the Rangers winning in seven. Think Kreider is back by Game 5 and Lundqvist outplays Fleury to steal a game or two
This time of year, you need to play hard and pay attention for every second you are on the ice, one slip up or lapse in concentration could mean the difference between winning a series and advancing or losing and going home.
It’s go time. Let’s Go Rangers!!! The Drive to the Stanley Cup continues in Pittsburgh tonight. (as mentioned will be in the UK next week, so will do my best to blog at odd hours, which is when the games are on, and keep fresh content up. Also, fee; free to share the blogs with your colleagues to garner further interest in and bring fresh bodies to them.)