It's a match-up of East Coast versus West Coast. Broadway vs. Hollywood. Fifth Avenue vs. Rodeo Drive. The match up includes another mano-a-mano between two Olympic goalies. New York vanquished Montreal in six games while Los Angeles, as has been their pattern this post-season. won Game 7 on the road to defeat the defending champion Blackhawks. The two sides kick off the Stanley Cup Final on Wednesday at 8PM in Los Angeles.
Los Angeles is big, strong, physical and deep. They have shown the heart, character, will and desire of a champion, rallying from 3-0 down to beat San Jose and 3-2 down to get past Anaheim and then winning a third game 7 on the road to beat Chicago. New York won Game 7 at home against Philly, rallied from 3-1 down to defeat the Penguins and then Game 6 at home against Montreal. So each team has shown the ability to rally from deficits, though LA has taken it to an art form, going 7-0 in elimination games while the Rangers were "just" 4-0.
There are some similarities but clear differences between the teams. Both teams used a strong forecheck and counterattack to advance to this point. Each has an elite goaltender as well defensemen who can go from defense to offense and pinch deep to take advantage of opportunities. NY and LA have received scoring from multiple sources, with the Kings having nine players in double-figures, ranging from 11 to 24 points, while the Rangers have seven players, ranging from 10-13 points. To me, one key difference is team speed. New York is a faster team that Los Angeles and for them to have a good shot in this series, they must take advantage of that speed, especially when matched up against certain defenseman to create mismatches.
Because the team haven't met in the playoffs in so long - 1981 -, even discussing that match up is kind of a pointless exercise. There is some commonality between the two squads, with Marian Gaborik and Brian Boyle facing their old teams while Jeff Carter, Gaborik, Rick Nash, Derek Dorsett, John Moore, Derick Brassard and Anton Stralman are all ex-Columbus players. Beyond that, there is little commonality in terms of personnel amongst the squads. For New York, the goal is to bring one the first Cup since 1994 while Los Angeles is attempting to notch their second Cup in three years.
For the Rangers, the three keys are Henrik Lundqvist winning the goaltending battle against Jonathan Quick, dealing with the Kings' size and physical play and finding a way to slow down a potent Los Angeles power play. For Los Angeles, it's dealing with the speed New York has in going from defense to offense and oddly enough, avoiding reading all the press clipping that almost to a person has them winning the series. In addition, New York should have a chip on their shoulder from being a clear underdog and riding the "destiny" card that began in Game 5 following the tragic passing of Martin St. Louis' mother, France. Several has spoken about how that galvanized and unified the team, aiding in the comeback against Pittsburgh and win over Montreal. This hopefully will be a classic series.
Line Combinations and Analysis:
Rangers:
Forwards: 20 Chris Kreider - 21 Derek Stepan - 61 Rick Nash 67 Benoit Pouliot - 16 Derick Brassard - 36 Mats Zuccarello 62 Carl Hagelin - 19 Brad Richards - 26 Martin St. Louis 22 Brian Boyle - 28 Dominic Moore - 15 Derek Dorsett
Extras: Jesper Fast (played first two games against Philly and one against Pitt but has been on pine since then), Daniel Carcillo (played key role in Game 5 win over Philly, saw some time against Pittsburgh but received a reduction of his 10-game suspension for his violation of Rule 40.3 for contact with an official during Game 3 down to six games, so earliest he could be back is Game 4) and JT Miller (played games 3-4 versus Philly, one game against Pitt and saw brief action against Montreal in Game 3 before he injured his shoulder when he went into the post on a hit by Andrei Markov).
(The Rangers offense relied on balanced scoring to get past the Flyers. Eight Rangers tallied two goals to beat Philly, which those of us that have followed the team all year came as no surprise, since AV likes to roll four lines. That is what makes this team different than others, especially the bottom-six.
Against Pittsburgh, the Brassard line did a substantial amount of the damage, bolstered by solid play from the other three lines. The return of Chris Kreider, starting in Game 4, was a huge boost for NY, given his size, speed and skill. Rick Nash did everything but score the first two rounds, upping his physical play as the playoffs worn on. Nash has shown no reluctance to shoot, but despite all the shots, he had yet to light the lamp against Philly and Pitt. Hagelin was productive against Pittsburgh while Richards had the GWG in Game 7 and was the defacto captain, on the ice and in the locker room.
Against Montreal, Nash finally scored, notching goals in Games 1 (late), 2 and 5. Stepan suffered a broken jaw on a hit by Brandon Prust in Game 3, finished the game, missed Game 4 and returned to action in Game 5. Kreider's speed was evident, though most of what he will be remembered for in that series was the incident with Carey Price. The Zucc line was okay, not great. having some moments, though inconsistent. The "third line" had several major moments, St. Louis top-shelf in Game 4 and Hagelin's speed evident throughout, though Richards was basically invisible. To me, the fourth line was the best overall line; Moore and Boyle on the PK helped hold Montreal to 2-for-23 on the man advantage while Moore scored the only goal in Game 6 on a beautiful feed by Boyle and strong work along the boards by Dorsett,
What I wrote against Montreal is true here again. Once again, a key is Nash, but beyond him, the key up front is Richards. If he can replicate what he did against Philly and Pitt, especially since St. Louis is on his line and he has speed in Hagelin to create and finish chances, then NY can roll the four lines. In addition, Stepan, Brassard and Moore/Boyle have their work cut out for them against Kopitar, Carter, M. Richards and Stoll, as LA has the best center depth and overall talent New York will face these playoffs).
Defense 27 Ryan McDonagh - 5 Dan Girardi 18 Marc Staal - 6 Anton Stralman 61 Raphael Diaz - 8 Kevin Klein
Extras: John Moore (finishing two-game suspension for his hit on Dale Weise by missing Game 1) and Justin Falk.
(The D struggled at times against Pittsburgh, but really rallied in Games 5-7 and the Rangers the league in fewest shots against at 28.4 due to a solid team D philosophy. McDonagh, struggled most of the series against Philly before righting the ship and having his best game of the series in Game 7; got better as the Pittsburgh series continued. He had the chance to show Montreal up close and personal what they gave up when they traded their 12th overall pick in 2007 to the Rangers in the Scott Gomez deal and he did so in spades. McD became the first Rangers defenseman since Brian Leetch to score 10 points in a series. He showed what he can do with much of the focus on P.K. Subban, now, he gets the chance to do the same with NY facing Drew Doughty. Girardi has for the most part been good in the playoffs and played a key role along with McDonagh in neutralizing Sidney Crosby and then the Max Pacioretty line. Staal and Stralman were very good the first two rounds, especially as they matched up against the Crosby line, nearly as much as the McDonagh-Girardi one, and was able to handle their own, even when Crosby and Malkin were split. Against Montreal, they were okay and will have to be a lot better, since they will face either the Kopitar or Carter line. Klein was the Rangers' best D man against Montreal, solid in his own zone and pinching when needed. Diaz, who played a good game in Game 6 against Montreal replacing Moore, and his speed and puck moving ability could be a big key. Similar for Moore, who will be back Game 2. Darryl Sutter may try and match his top two lines against this pairing while AV tries to minimize the time on ice this duo has against those lines. If the PP struggles, Diaz's shot and puck-moving could be a key there to jumpstart it. The two defenses are solid top to down, with Los Angeles having the elite scoring d-man in Doughty supplemented by Jake Muzzin, Alec Martinez and Slava Voynov. NY may have a slight more depth, but if so, it's minimal. The key will be for the Rangers to match Los Angeles' physical play and ability to control the puck in the offensive zone without taking too many penalties, leading to PP chances for a hot Kings' team).
Goaltending 30 Henrik Lundqvist 33 Cam Talbot 29 David LeNeveu
(Not much to add here. If you watched Game 7 against Pittsburgh, especially the last 10 minutes, and Game 6 against Montreal, especially the Hasek-eqsque save on Thomas Vanek, you saw Lundqvist as an impenetrable stone wall. Lundqvist has been shaky at times - Game 6 against Philly, Game 4 against Pitt and Game 5 against Montreal, but he rebounded each time with a brilliant effort. Dustin Tokarski, replacing Price, was brilliant in the series, at time outplaying Lundqvist, but Hank had his own moments. Granted, the offenses he has played - Flyers, Penguins and Canadiens - may not have the ilk of the ones Quick has faced - Sharks, Ducks and Blackhawks - but a 2.03 GAA and .928 SV% are nothing to quibble about. The goaltending match-up is basically even, whoever is able to outplay the other, likely will win the series. In fact, many believe Lundqvist must play at a Conn Smythe Trophy level for New York to have a shot, which may be every true. Talbot is nursing an undisclosed injury, though reported to be to his eye, so he may not be the backup initially, which is somewhat disconcerting, as there is no real safety net behind Lundqvist. If Lundqvist plays at the level he can and the offense does what we think they can do, NY has a good shot against LA).
Kings
Forwards Marian Gaborik-Anze Kopitar-Dustin Brown Tanner Pearson-Jeff Carter-Tyler Toffoli Dwight King-Mike-Richards-Justin Williams Kyle Clifford-Jarret Stoll-Trevor Lewis
Scratches - Jordan Nolan (if he gets in, it will be on the fourth line)
(This is what I wrote Sunday, and it's still true. Anze Kopitar (5g, 19a, +9), to me, is one of the best two-way centers in the world. The Kings needed a wing-man for him, and got one, all but stealing Marian Gaborik from Columbus at the trade deadline. Gabby has scored 12 goals and 19 points in 20 games, acting as the Robin to Kopitar's Batman. The Kings have used Dustin Brown (4g, 8a) on that line, giving them some grit to go with the flash of Gabby and he helped set up the game-tying goal Sunday. Their second line, known as the 7s line, has been almost, if not more impressive. Tanner Pearson (4g, 8a, +9) didn't have a big regular season and Tyler Toffoli (7g, 6a) showed signs of the sniper he was in the minors, but since those two were paired with Jeff Carter, that line has exploded. Mike Richards (2g, 6a) is more in a checking role but Justin Williams has been brilliant these playoffs, seen in his goal Sunday, giving him seven goals and 11 assists with a +11 rating and made him 7-0 with seven goals and a record 14 points in game 7s, and they are joined by Dwight King. The fourth line of Clifford-Stoll-Lewis just grind down opponents, similar to the Rangers. So if comparing the forwards to Chicago, the Blackhawks had more talent in the top lines while LA has more depth. Some have compared them to a more talented Philly squad, as they can play a physical style but can score easier. Los Angeles leads the playoffs with 3.48 goals per game and their effectiveness through the neutral zone and down low gives the Rangers a harder challenge they faced against Philly and different than against Pitt and Montreal).
Defense Jake Muzzin-Drew Doughty Willie Mitchell-Slava Voynov Alec Martinez-Matt Greene
Scratches - Jeff Schultz (healthy) and Robin Regehr (knee, could play in Finals)
(Again, what I wrote Sunday applies today. The blueline is also impressive in LA. Doughty steps up when the lights are brightest and his pairing mate, Jake Muzzin, has had several big goals these playoffs. We all know about Slava Voynov but Alec Martinez is the one who along with Muzzin has really made a name for himself this postseason, further evidenced by his game-winner Sunday. Mitchell, a steadying defensive force, is paired with Voynov while Martinez is paired with Matt Greene, who provides a physical presence on the Kings' blueline. LA's depth on the blue line is fairly apparent, but if there is a weakness, it's that Mitchell and Greene drag down LA's total blueline speed. Chicago took advantage of that in Game 1 and part of Game 2 before the Kings adjusted. If NY does the same, they could win Game 1 and give LA problems during the series).
Goaltenders Jonathan Quick Martin Jones
(Against Philly and Pitt, the Rangers had a clear edge in goal. Even if Ray Emery or Steve Mason or Marc-Andre Fleury stole a game or two, Lundqvist had the edge. Against Montreal, Price was viewed as Lundqvist's equal, but his injury suffered on the collision with Kreider, scuttled that. This series, Quick can be Lundqvist's equal. Quick hasn't had the best, at at times, uneven, playoffs, posting a 2.86 GAA and .906 SV%, but as pointed out above, much of that may be due to the teams he faced. When the Kings needed him to step up big, he did. Down 3-0 to San Jose, he stoned them the next four games. Down 3-2 to Anaheim, he did the same. Against Chicago, he allowed 23 goals in seven goals while facing a top-flight offense, but in the second period of Game 7, he stopped 15 of 16 shots, allowing LA to stay close and ultimately win the game).
PP Units:
Kreider-Stepan-St. Louis-McDonagh-Richards Pouliot-Brassard-Zucc-Diaz-Girardi
(The Rangers PP has alternated from highly productive to non-existent these playoffs. It was brilliant in games 1 and 2 against Philly and then fell off the face of the earth. They went through a playoff record-tying stretch of 36 straight futile attempts but came through with big goals in Game 5 (Kreider) and Game 7 (Richards) against the Penguins. Overall, they were just 6-for-55 the first two rounds before going 5-of-24 against Montreal, though that number is bolstered by a 4-for-10 mark the first two games. Getting Kreider back has given NY a big presence in front of the net, which allows helps the dump and chase if the opponent stacks the blue line. The Rangers challenge has been gaining the blueline and that will be the case here as LA is aggressive on the forecheck, so they also may have issues even when in the zone. Quick passing and player movement will be needed to counterattack that aggressiveness from LA, who have have allowed 15 goals in 80 shorthanded chances for an 81.2% success rate, ninth in the playoffs this year, after a success rate of 83.1% during the regular season).
Carter-Kopitar-Gaborik-Doughty-Voynov Brown-Richards-Williams-Muzzin-Martinez
(The Rangers faced good power plays in Philly and Pittsburgh and had varying degrees of success. They struggled against Philly but stoned Pitt, stopping 19-of-20 chances in that series and 34-for-41 overall. Montreal was expected to be a major step up in class, due to the talent they have, especially Subban at the point, but New York held them to 2-for-23 on the man advantage. This series, it's another step up, as LA is 17-for-67 , 25.4% success rate on the man advantage. They have skill, size, hands and good defensemen at the point with both groupings dangerous. Gaborik has been a huge help to LA on the power play, getting set up by Kopitar while Doughty and Voynov blast away from the points. The second grouping is more grit than skill, relying on Muzzing and Martinez from the points. For NY, obviously, first and foremost, staying out of the box is key, which they did fairly well against Montreal, save for Game 5. Then if not, the play up front with Boyle-Hagelin, D. Moore-St. Louis and Nash-Stepan will be critical to shutting off passing lanes to aid the big four on D. In addition, they block a ton of shots, which will be more of a challenge given the shots that all four LA d-men have. Of course, Lundqvist as the back line of defense will need to be a stalwart. With lots of other pieces being even, the battle of power plays and penalty kills, on both sides of the coin, could decide the series)
Rangers vs. Kings - Stanley Cup Finals Game 1: Rangers at Kings, Wed., June 4 at 8 p.m. (NBC, CBC) Game 2: Rangers at Kings, Sat., June 7 at 7 p.m. (NBC, CBC) Game 3: Kings at Rangers, Mon., June 9 at 8 p.m. (NBCSN, CBC) Game 4: Kings at Rangers, Wed., June 11 at 8 p.m. (NBCSN, CBC) Game 5*: Rangers at Kings, Fri., June 13 at 8 p.m. (NBC, CBC)* Game 6*: Kings at Rangers, Mon., May 16 at 8 p.m. (NBC, CBC)* Game 7*: Rangers at Kings, Wed., June 18 at 8 p.m. (NBC, CBC)*
Possible Unsung Heroes: We all know how important the big boys are to the Rangers and Kings, which includes the top-4 on the blue line for NY and similar for LA, especially Doughty. I want to focus on two players each, while not unsung, may be keys to the series.
For the Rangers, against Philly, I said Hagelin and the fourth line. I missed on Hagelin, though he had somewhat of an impact, but hit on the fourth line. Against Pitt, I went with whoever played opposite Richards and Hagelin and the fourth line again. It ended up being St. Louis when Kreider returned, so that's a big unfair as he is not unsung, but the fourth line was huge again. Last series, I went with Stepan and Pouliot. Stepan, ended up as critical due to the Prust hit and resulting furor, while Pouliot took stupid penalty after stupid penalty. This series, each will be critical, as NY has to match LA down the middle and score, but I will use Hagelin and the fourth line again. Hagelin, as his speed is a difference maker, seen against Montreal while the fourth line will have to match up against one of LA's top-two lines and also produce a bit.
For Los Angeles, it's Pearson and Williams. Pearson and Toffoli have provided great depth to LA, balancing out the lines and proving to be perfect running mates for Carter. Williams is a big money player, who sometimes gets lost amongst the other talent for LA - until Game 7. As noted above, he is a huge big-game player and there is no bigger games than the Stanley Cup Finals. If the Rangers can somehow limit the second line and Williams, they obviously have a better chance of winning, and on flip side, if they produce, the edge flips to Los Angeles.
Edges:
Even-Strength - Los Angeles has scored 73 goals in 21 games, 17 on PP, zero SHG and six ENG, so 50 on 5-on-5. New York has scored 54 in 24 games, 11 on PPG, one SHG and two ENG, so 40 on 5-on-5. The Kings have been much better overall, including at even strength and on the PP, giving them the edge up front.
PP - No contest, Los Angeles, as seen by the numbers
PK - Rangers, especially seeing how they played against Montreal and Pitt after struggling against Phi while Los Angeles has regressed slightly from their regular season performance
Forwards - Kings mildly, more talent up front, but offset a bit by Rangers edge in bottom-six, regardless which line - Richards or Brassard - you consider the third line and production from fourth line, even though Los Angeles has gotten production from their third line, while fourth is more of a pure checking trio.
Defense - Even, bigger name in Doughty, solid 1-6 in LA, but McDonagh taking next step in his career and the Rangers' three pairings all are solid
Goalie - Even, hard to quibble between which one you take over the other, that may depend on who you root for.
Playoff Experience - lots of experience on both teams, though edge to LA. Vigneault (2011 in Van) and Sutter (2012 with LA) have been to Cup Finals. Rangers went to ECF two years ago, ECSF last year and obviously Finals now. Los Angeles won Cup two years ago, lost in WCF finals last year and back in Cup Finals this season with lots of the same cast. Rangers have Cup experience in Richards and St. Louis (as well as Carcillo) but due to overall team experience, mild edge to LA.
Coaching - very, very, very slight edge to Los Angeles. AV has been a steady hand throughout and the players believe in the system. He has experience against the West Coast, having coached in Vancouver, so he knows LA's system well. Sutter has his team back in the Cup Finals again, maintaining a relatively calm manner even as LA was down in the first two series and facing a Game 7 in Chicago last round. Vigneault is now trying to inspire his team as the "underdog," so he has shown the ability to change the focus as the playoffs have worn on.
Intangibles - LA comes in as the favorite, possibly for the first time these playoffs, or at least the first time, they are big favorite. They have played a record 21 games in reaching this point. For NY, part of the hope is that being for nearly a week has rejuvenated their legs, adding even further gas to the tank. In addition, Los Angeles has spoken about how emotional winning Game 7 was, so maybe there is a slight let down early on this series. However, NY had similar, rallying from 3-1 down vs. Pitt and then won Game 1 in Montreal. Both teams get extra rest during the Finals. Both teams get extra rest during the Finals. For some reason, there are three days between 1 and 2, then if necessary, similar between 5 and 6. NY thinks they are a team of destiny, seeing all that has gone on with St. Louis. LA likely feels the same way, based on their amazing comebacks and record in elimination games this post-season. Faceoffs could be a huge factor, as LA is very strong in that regard, while the Rangers' top-three are weak. The offsetting factor is that Moore and Boyle are solid there and AV will get Moore on for key defensive zone faceoffs and then take him off. Neither squad has a major rivalry with one another, though Gaborik would love to show NY what they gave up, though the coach is different, and possibly same with Boyle, who was drafted by the Kings.
Prediction - Jason Lewis in his fine series preview predicts LA in six games. I can easily go that route as well. To me, this has the earmarks of a long series. I have written the Rangers train throughout, and since few of the "experts" give then that much of a chance, being the iconoclast is fun. New York will need to do a lot of what I spelled out above but also get some luck, but luck, comes from hard work and creating chances. This will be the toughest opponent the Rangers will face, hands down, no disrespect to who they have already played. But that team of destiny header that has been placed above their heads will ring true once again, New York in six or seven with Kreider and Nash each having a big series.
This time of year, you need to play hard and pay attention for every second you are on the ice, one slip up or lapse in concentration could mean the difference between winning a series and advancing or losing and going home.
It’s go time. Let’s Go Rangers!!! The Drive to the Stanley Cup continues in Los Angeles on Wednesday. (To give you fresh content, Ed (tapout632) will write a recap blog for Game 1 and I will get my thoughts up Thursday night or Friday AM after the holiday. Dan Petriw will do one Sunday AM if I am unable to weigh in after Game 2, though I should be able to)
(Can-Am Spyder, an official partner of the NHL, also has a relationship with Mark Messier. For more information, or to learn more/test drive a Spyder, visit a local dealer (http://can-am.brp.com/spyder/dealer-locator.html)