The challenge with the Winnipeg Jets is that there might be more to fix than is reasonably possible to expect. Training camp thus far has been filled with the usual narratives of youth trying to make the team, veterans preparing for new challenges, prospective lines, new coaching philosophy and of course fitness.
The issues facing the Jets go further than simply who has arrived for a new season prepared, fit, and ready. The Jets, by admission of their head coach Paul Maurice, are facing more than a few challenges that require fixing. They are: goaltending, defense system, transition game, power play, overall offensive strategy and tactics, and of course fitness.
Some would have you believe that fitness will be the one issue that if improved and corrected helps existing problems, if not inevitably solves most of them. Maurice made public his concerns about this issue before then end of last season and it's been the 'hot take' of training camp thus far.
It is only one thing, but it's an important thing.
If you have read this space since the fall of 2011 you will know that I have often harped and explained that this group, no matter what incarnation, has not been fit to the standards of the opposition. If a player, or collection of players, is not fit they cannot perform to the best of their abilities. Mistakes get magnified, they happen more frequently, and they arise at less than opportune times. Fitness is one thing a team can somewhat control, and something a coach needs to have a firm grip on so that he has the players in a position to play the game he has designed.
It's all simple in theory, but that theory will be tested this year in Winnipeg.
Maurice has also stated that judging the goalie before establishing a sound defensive system is not right, or at least a judgement he is willing to make. He has tied the two elements of defense & goaltending together in his approach, believing that by fixing one (the defense system/play) the results will improve with the other (goaltending). Call me skeptical but I'm not sure that can happen, or rather 'will' happen.
If the defense can change, and utlimately prevent some sort of shots that Pavelec has difficulty stopping, has Maurice mastered the art of 'managing shot quality'? That seems unlikely, very unlikely. In all likelihood the Jets need Pavelec to improve his play on his own and they need the defense to not worry about shot quality but scoring chances and opportunities. The latter is a far more reasonable task, with a probability of success(to some measure) that seems reasonable. The question is 'if' this can happen.
Sunday we heard there was much effort and instruction placed on neutral zone play and zone entries. While some might want to herald this as the coming of 'advanced stats' to the Winnipeg Jets, that would be premature. The more common name for work within, and into the offensive zone is the transition game.
Moving the puck from your own end, through the neutral zone, and into scoring position is something the Jets have been all over the map with during three previous seasons. (all observations are based on the eye-test). They've had success, but they've had struggles too and for a team with speedy wingers like Kane and Wheeler along with talent such as Trouba, Scheifele, and vastly underrated centre man Bryan Little, Maurice know he has underused assets.
The Jets need to find a cohesive tactic that enables better transition play. Interestingly, transition starts within a team's own end. Getting the puck out begins with possession of said puck. That is is where the change for the Jets ties together. If the defense has to be better the best thing it can improve on is taking possession of the puck. The next step is to move the puck out of the zone forward... it all seems so obvious but that's where the Jets have to improve. Maurice knows this because when he first arrived in Winnipeg he frequently commented on how big and fast the team was when he saw them. Having big and fast forwards is a great asset but utterly useless when you can't get them the puck. The transition game needs improvement and tactics to make it far more effective.
The power play was all but a lost advantage the last two seasons for the Winnipeg Jets. Ranking 30th under Perry Pearn's tutelage and then 25th last season even after his mid-season dismissal is far from ideal. Once again it's opportunity lost and the Jets are a team that has little reason to avoid opportunity. Most of the previous changes discussed become highlighted in the microcosm of a Power Play. A team's biggest faults can be exposed with the man-advantage and many times last season, and the season before, the Jets revealed their weaknesses and faults when they had that man advantage. Moving the puck was a challenge and all that even strength work needs to realize results on the power play. Good habits and sound tactics at even strength can and should bring results on the power play and that was not happening.
Where this all lands is back to where it all began- goaltending. If the pucks are going in your own net more than they should then all of the above is for nought. The real question is this: are all of these changes possible?
What the Jets have is a situation which is like project management; on time, on budget, and according specifications. You only get two our of the three.
If the Jets need improved fitness, (yes they do) something they can control and affect, then we can leave that off the list. It will come, when is the question. If they need goaltending, better defense and better transition game- having all of those will indeed create improved offensive tactics- is it likely they can improve all of them?
If the same rules of project management apply to the Jets changes there are only two question remaining, just like the inevitable choices.
1. What two changes do the Jets need to make? 2. What two changes are likely to happen?
The bigger picture here is can Maurice make these changes happen all at once through training camp and can the players accept such a radical departure from old habits and familiar play? It's not that these things can't be done but can they with a group that has seen relatively no player turnover? More importantly is it reasonable to expect that Maurice, despite his own public desires for the team, can make all these large scale changes with accompanying micro nuances happen?
That's your bet as a fan. Is he able to, or is he likely too? Whatever side your fall on it's clear there is a lot of work and changes to be done, probably more than most fans realize. It will take more time than most fans realize too and that means one thing, patience. That one thing may be something fans simply have now run out of. It is also one thing a good start and positive results can buy as well. Are you willing to bet on that happening or do you still have patience?