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The Dallas Stars will host the Pittsburgh Penguins tonight. This will be only the 2nd time the Penguins have visited the Lone Star State since the big trade involving James Neal, Matt Niskanen, and Alex Goligoski.
The Penguins are getting more value out of the trade than the Dallas Stars, that much is certain. James Neal is the obvious reason for that.
However, I wanted to take a look and see how a straight up Niskanen for Goligoski swap would look right now.
Before I continue I would like to point out the obvious, Matt Niskanen gets the opportunity to play with better forwards on the Pittsburgh Penguins. Alex Goligoski does not get to play with the likes of Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, and Chris Kunitz.
Jamie Benn and Tyler Seguin are terrific players but they aren’t in the Crosby/Malkin stratosphere.
With that said the charts I will be using below are meant to show the impact that these two defensemen have on their own teammates. It doesn’t matter if one team has better forwards or not. What does matter is if Niskanen and/or Goligoski are a positive influence on their teammates.
The charts below include data for both Niskanen and Goligoski; they include the 5 forwards who have played the most with each defenseman in the 2013-2014 season.
The data used was taken from 5 vs. 5 gameplay.
Let’s take a look at how both these players stack up. First up Alex Goligoski’s Corsi For %:
Overall Goligoski’s numbers are not terrible. Very rarely do you see figures below the 50% threshold. Although Benn, Eakin, Nichushkin and Peverley all seem to play better away from Goligoski even if the gain is small in some cases.
Does Niskanen have a positive impact on the Penguins possession game?
The answer is a resounding yes. Matt Niskanen may play with better forwards but he also can claim that he actually makes them better. Every Penguins forward sees a drop in possession when they are not playing with Matt Niskanen. Malkin and Sutter actually turn into negative possession players when playing away from Niskanen. Niskanen is a positive possession player at all times.
Possession is one dynamic, but the end result that hockey players strive to achieve is goal scoring. Let’s take a look at Goligoski’s Goals For % at even strength with his forward teammates:
This chart is not as kind as the possession chart for Goligoski. Only Nichushkin sees a drop in his even EVGF% when playing away from Goligoski. Every other Dallas forward on the chart experiences a positive bump playing away from Goligoski. In some cases the bump is significant (Benn, Eakin, Peverley).
Does Niskanen’s positive impact continue in the goal scoring department?
There is an amazingly strong positive correlation between Niskanen’s presence on the ice and the Penguins ability to score goals at even strength. Every single forward sees a SIGNIFICANT drop-off when they are playing away from Niskanen. Niskanen also sees a drop in his GF% when playing away from these forwards. However, all of his numbers are well above 50%, in fact they are all still incredibly impressive.
The forwards aren’t as lucky. Everybody except for Chris Kunitz sees the puck go in the Penguins net more often than not when they are away from Niskanen and even then Kunitz is only at 50%.
Sidney Crosby goes from 75% with Niskanen all the way down to 43.1% without Niskanen, that is incredible. It’s not just Crosby though; Kunitz, Malkin, and Sutter all experience a free fall in their GF% without Niskanen.
The data is clear; Matt Niskanen makes other players better.
When comparing the impact that Niskanen and Goligoski currently have on their teams it is pretty obvious, Matt Niskanen is playing at a much higher level than Alex Goligoski.
This was a lopsided trade in the Penguins favor even without James Neal’s 78 goals in the last 150 games while in Pittsburgh.
Alex Goligoski currently has a cap hit of 4.6M until the end of the 2015-16 season.
Matt Niskanen is on the cusp of hitting unrestricted free agency; if the Penguins are able to re-sign Niskanen in that same neighborhood it will continue to pour salt in the wounds of the Dallas Stars.
The good news for the Stars is that Joe Nieuwendyk is no longer calling the shots in Dallas. Jim Nill has gotten off to a pretty solid start in his GM career by acquiring #1 center Tyler Seguin and drafting Valeri Nichushkin. The Stars can’t go back and change the past, but they seem to have a man in place to guide them properly in the future.
Thanks for reading!
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