1) A lot of fans are, shall we say, apprehensive about Douglas Murray lumbering around in game three for the Canadiens. No one would argue he's got the foot-speed to handle Boston's forecheck, and he's not exactly a tape-to-tape passer. So let's try and figure out what would tempt Michel Therrien to plug Murray into the lineup.
The Canadiens struggled in three departments against the Bruins in the first two games, and they're three departments they excelled in against the Lightning, and they're all connected:
a) They weren't able to apply enough pressure on Boston's defense to hinder their breakout.
b) They weren't able to apply the type of back pressure they need through the neutral zone.
c) The defensemen weren't able to hold the line enough and force dump-ins.
The first key is to chip pucks behind defenders, if you don't have the opportunity to maintain possession over the line, and beat them with speed. Even if you aren't going to retrieve the puck, applying that type of offensive zone pressure forces Boston into less clean breakouts. Less clean breakouts lead to a less speed coming through the neutral zone.
At yesterday's practice, the Habs spent a great deal of time working on back pressure. That's the key to holding the line. It's essential to not allow Boston's centremen the opportunity to have the time and space to make plays crossing over the line, and the only way to do that is to force them to release the puck to the wing right away. If you have the right back-pressure, your defensemen can stand up at the line.
Enter Murray. This is the one thing he can do better than any Montreal defender; he can hold the line with brute force and physicality. When he isn't offered the opportunity to do that because Montreal's back pressure isn't what it needs to be, or because they gave Boston an easy out by turning the puck over at the offensive blue line or by dumping it in to a corner without any Montreal presence, that's where Murray will have to break from his comfort zone and manage something he's not built to succeed with.
2) Ice-time management is the key with Murray, and it shouldn't be a problem given how much Therrien will rely on Subban, Markov, Emelin and Gorges.
When Murray's been kept to 15:00 or less, the Habs are 19-8. This stat isn't there to suggest Murray's the reason they won those games, but it clearly shows that his presence, if managed accordingly, doesn't hurt the team nearly as much as everyone fears it will.
In two of those games, Murray was a plus. In 16 of those game Murray was even. In eight of those games he was a -1. In one he was a -2.
3) The penalty kill effect Murray brings shouldn't be discounted, even in light of the fact that the Canadiens did a great job neutralizing the Bruins' powerplay through the first two games.
Boston's going to make some adjustments. You can expect Chara to see a bit more ice down low, it's not like Murray can physically outmatch him, but he's the best option the Canadiens have to make life difficult on the Bruins' giant.
There's no guarantee Murray suits up for this game. If he does, Therrien is gambling that the reward outweighs the risk in his case. If the Canadiens can't exert the adjustments they're looking for in the offensive zone, and if they can't get the type of back-pressure that allows Murray to hold the line on most of his shifts, Therrien will have to pull the plug on this and move on with five defensemen, and chances are this gamble will have hurt the Canadiens in game three. But if the team responds accordingly, and Murray's able to do the one or two things he does well, Therrien's making a move that promises to exact more of a physical toll than Bouillon can.
4) Speaking of physical toll and forechecking, enter Ryan White.
I've said it before and I'll say it again, this guy had 12 hits in a playoff game against Boston in 2011.
White has speed, he's got tenacity, and he's managed to clean the dumb penalty out of his game.
He has to get a chance out there. He's been sitting like a caged tiger. There's no question he'll be ready.
Another factor with White is that he can win faceoffs. All the Habs centremen are below 50% in this series.
5) Here's where it gets really interesting. It's almost a foregone conclusion that Brandon Prust takes a seat if White's activated. And Michael Bournival isn't moving to the sidelines.
So the biggest decision Therrien has to make is as follows:
-Dress Moen-White-Weise as his fourth line. They played exceptionally well together this season. This would mean scratching Daniel Briere--which isn't an easy decision to make considering his game-breaking ability.
-Dress White-Briere-Weise and scratch Moen.
-Rene Bourque is the ex-factor, but it appears he's present at today's morning skate. I'd imagine he'll be labeled a game-time decision...