A lot of Jets fans are waiting for the other shoe to drop. When is the 6-2-2 streak going to end and the subsequent release of third spot in the Central Division going to end? It might not but tonight is another interesting test against the Senators.
The Jets boast a 4-2-1 record away from the confines of home and the opposition tonight presents a 4-0-2 record at home. It's a classic scenario of good at home being tested by strong on the road. For Jets fans though what team shows up? The one that met every physical push by the Penguins with an equal or greater one or the group that let's the opposition dictate the pace and play. It seems that latter team is becoming a memory, and hopefully a distant one as the concept of identity takes centre stage again with the Jets.
The Jets identity is the curious thing that has so many mans and media once again questioning whether we see it in full or are just starting to see it revealed as a work in progress.
If you take the Thursday night sensation that was the game between Pittsburgh and Winnipeg you saw a team not ready to back down physically or on the score sheet. A group that stood up for each other not matter what, even if it meant taking a stupid penalty. When Downie scored coming out of the penalty box to make it 3-1 Pittsburgh Byfuglien slammed him into the boards after, in what could have been like Dale Hunter's blatant cheap shot on Pierre Turgeon. The fact that Winnipeg's so-called 'gentle giant' was so peeved after that goal that he risked taking 2 minutes, (if not more) it signalled that maybe these guys 'do give an f'.
What that means, or could mean, that head coach Paul Maurice may have found the straw that stirs the drink for this group. Not a particular player, line, pairing or even himself but a way of getting through where Noel and his associates could not. The problem is fans and observers alike have been fooled before by this team. So the question becomes, when is it okay to believe change has finally come and taken hold?
I would suggest now is too early but noting it's clearly underway. While no team is going to play perfect every game, there's just too much luck in the game to allow for perfection, how they play is as important as the result. That's the difference with Maurice, the highs are never as big as they were under the former regime and the lows never as low. As esteemed NHL.com correspondent Patrick Williams said on Twitter yesterday "teams tend to take on the identity of their coach" and he's right.
The Jets appear to have bought into what Maurice is a calculated, prepared person ready to find ways to win games in any situation. They have become somewhat adaptable in their tactics and the results the last 5 games have shown that they are prepared to play any game thrown at them. That's a big difference from seasons past where if the Jets didn't face a style they matched well against they could not adapt.
The structure changes that Maurice has been teaching are taking hold and what they have allowed the Jets players to do is play with a bit more confidence knowing that the players will not implode if tactics breakdown. He has simply cleaned up a lot of loose ends and the results have the Jets playing competent, effective hockey not matter who they face.
Tonight against the Senators the Jets face a team that has outscored them by 6 goals in two fewer games while allowing 4 goals less. On the road at 5v5 the Jets are running a 45.58% Fenwick in all score situations on the road while Ottawa is running at 44.59% at home. The difference here is that the Sens are riding a 102.85 PDO at home and Winnipeg is running a 99.26 PDO in 5v5 strength.
If a team is set to have a bit of regression it appears Ottawa has further to go and would be more likely to slide because is 102.85 PDO at home sustainable? Last season Ottawa had a PDO of 98.23 at home for the entire season so they have turned it around big time but wait. Their Fenwick % at home at evens was 53.22 for top 10 in the league at home. To date it's dropped by 8%- that's huge! The Jets ran a 48.3% Fenwick on the road for all of last season at 5v5 so they too are trending down after 14 games.
I'm not going to say any of this is conclusive to the outcome of tonight's game but if I was putting money down I'd base it on the Jets breaking the shackles of old habits finally and the Sens being lucky early on. In that case let's say a 5-3 Winnipeg win and Kane with 2G and 1A now that his early mini-slump is over.
Enjoy the game.
(thanks as always to the great website War on Ice)