He may be the least significant goalie in the NHL for everyone outside of Winnipeg but he surely is a lightning rod for emotion in Winnipeg. More so than Evander Kane and yes, this is absolutely serious.
Yesterday when asked by Paul Friesen of the Winnipeg Sun about Ondrej Pavelec and his role on the team Cheveldayoff responded "going into next season Ondrej Pavelec is our number one goalie". Boom, full stop, period dot the end.
However as the always affable and inquisitive Rick Ralph mentioned today on his radio program, "that was yesterday, is it the same today?". Therein lies what many Jets fans are overlooking with their frustration at the goaltending position on the Winnipeg Jets when is something going to happen.
There are many who are taking the GM's words as the holy gospel with the belief that he called his shot in mid-April about who would be his starter. With the TNSE approach to risk and change one can see why a skeptical fan might assume, 'Chevy signed him, now we're stuck with him'.
The other side seem to be upset that no change is eminent, hinted at, or considered no matter how likely or unlikely that move would be. These folks ride on the data, the analytics and the frustration of watching a goalie(s) who cannot seem to be a point a strength rather than weakness. To complicate matters the undying faith expressed in the player seems far too perplexing for this group based on the results of 4 seasons as the primary starter for the team.
#teampavelec or #teampavLOLec
The problem with change in the NHL is you tend to not want to have your potential competitors know it's coming nor do you want to provide leverage to anyone else you may be courting. If one is to buy out Pavelec, it's the common belief of the only viable option, why would you tip your hand now? By announcing a buyout it gives every other GM who you may want to deal with a reason to up the price of a replacement goalie. It also gives all available free agents the opportunity to increase their asking price. It would essentially be putting yourself over a barrel for no reason.
The fact is something can change and Cheveledayoff in no way ruled out change or roster moves, he simply did not describe what they are, will be or could be. Being a GM is similar to playing Poker, why should your cards to early. In poker you are trying to win the most chips from your opponent and in hockey you are trying to get the most out of your rival without giving up much. You may plan to fold the cards on Pavelec but why does anyone have to know now?
The other argument made about changing the guard for Winnipeg's goalies is who is guaranteed to come in and replace him or them? If the Jets choose to buyout Pavelec who comes in? Those who deal in fact want names and some level of certainty as a means of justifying the move. They also call for names when asking about who is better. Simply put- those challenging they buyout want some sort of sound logic that whae replaces Pavelec is actually better and available and likely to come to Winnipeg. I'd want to know that too if I were Chevy, but I'd also want to know a few other things too.
Often, in the last few days, the same people using the above perspective in the Pavelec debate are also saying that he could improve. There is that chance and that would be the best possible outcome as everyone looks good. But how?
For Paul Maurice to say he wants to to solve the defense issues he sees before dealing with Pav is telling but only because it helps support the position that defense is affecting the goaltening. At last it's affecting one goalie, Pavelec.
So let's apply the same logic to Pavelec that has been done in regards to a replacement. How does he get better? What specifically does he have to improve. What change guarantees improvement? Would a GM, or anyone supporting Pavelec, not want to know those details in certain terms in the same way they would want to know potential replacement options?
I hope so.
If you believe that logic is fair in both cases for Pavelec, a replacement and/or improvement, then ask why neither have happened yet? What to this date has prevented Pavelec from being better? Would that not be the most important thing to know before hitching onto him and doubling down as some believe Chevy did yesterday? If that answer is known, why then for 3 seasons under Wade Flaherty has nothing changed and only progressed towards the bottom of the NHL results?
Some would say it has gotten better and four years ago the Thrashers allowed 269 goals, the first year in Winnipeg was 246 and this past season 237. But then you compare it to Pavelec's personal stats things look different- .914 .906 and .901 in those same three seasons. If goals against are deemed to be a team stat, the Jets are letting in less goals in 82 game seasons yet Pavelec's GAA in those same three seasons looks like this, 2.73 2.91 and 3.01.
In Pavelec's best statistical year the team allowed 269 goals against and he faced more shots than this past season playing 1 less game then. So clearly with all this talk of improvement, and 4 seasons of video and experience. there's a logical explanation as to why Pavelec is getting worse if the team in front is getting better?
The point that needs to be made is the same hard questions about evidence and certainty need to be made both ways with Pavelec. I would assume the Jets have done their homework on him and know what they and Pavelec have to do to bring him back to close to league average. Why else would you double down if the odds weren't in your favour?
Unless something happens you will hear no more on Pavelec in this space. So enjoy a Pavelec free zone until September and for some that hopefully goes on much longer.