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While it’s safe to say that the Toronto Maple Leafs have been playing quite well of late, I can’t help but wonder if their current streak is a real indication of improvement in play, or if it could be nothing more than another “October fluke…, as some pundits have put it.
With that established, it should stand to reason that we discuss the differences between the previous month or two of play, compared to how they played in October and most recently during this six game winning streak. To start things off, there is one stat, or position, that has been the biggest difference between the two time frames in question, and that's goaltending.
This is not to say that the Leafs goaltending has necessarily suffered previous to their current streak, but in the month of October and most recently, the goaltending has been quite a bit above average in terms of SV%. What’s more, is that while the Leafs SV% has been .932 over their last six games played, they have also allowed one of the highest shot totals league wide. Quite astonishing if you ask me.
Now, I don’t want to get into the “shot quality… argument again, but there is no doubt that the Leafs continue to allow too many shots on net, despite receiving some very strong goaltending. That said, the team has improved in this area of concern over the past six games or so as they have allowed fewer than 40 shots. This leads me to believe that their shots against is in fact an area which they will continue to work on, and can realistically improve upon moving forward.
So far so good right? Strong goaltending and lowering shot totals against should, in theory, be something that the Leafs can maintain with two goaltenders playing well, in addition to working on reestablishing a high blocked shot total(currently 15th).
Where do I see potential problems?
Well for starters, Toronto has some players who are currently putting up some very respectable “streaky… numbers such as Phil Kessel’s 12 points in six games. Or how about Bozak’s six points in his previous five games played? Kadri’s five points in his last three? All great streaks these guys have at the moment, and there’s a few more that I haven’t even mentioned. Question is - Can these point totals be maintained? And if not, will their play suddenly regress?
Point is, the Leafs are on a roll right now and have been finding the back of the net, I argue, a little more than their play warrants. And if last night was no indication of this, I don’t know what I could offer as an argument. The team is currently on a streak, they have a lot of confidence, and when things are working this well for you, the puck often finds its way on your stick after a 150ft pass from Dion Phaneuf angles itself properly off the end boards to the front of the net. Just saying.
I suppose what needs to be decided upon is whether or not this recent play or success can be maintained by the group carrying forward, or if it is more likely to assume that the Leafs could just as easily revert to a negative streak as their current streak dries up. I presume I am looking for any sort of justification to tell me that their game, or further their system, has actually improved to the point where we can sit back and say with confidence that this team is in fact playing much better and that it is not just another “fluke… of success, as it were.
I don’t mean for this blog to come out as though I am finding reasons to complain about the Leafs current six game winning streak, because I am not. Conversely, and as I’ve pointed out, I am trying to assess whether the team has actually improved and are being rewarded as such. One thing I will assert is that the Leafs defensive game has seemingly improved since acquiring Tim Gleason which has left Mark Fraser and Paul Ranger watching from above.
Whether Gleason allows guys like Phaneuf to play less of a shutdown role and as such jump into the play more often or not, whatever intangible he brings to the team appears to have lessened the load on the captain, in addition to players like Gardiner who has been doing quite well of late.
As with many things in life, when you find success and things really start to go your way you often get a little lazy or stop doing the little things that got you there in the first place. If Toronto is to continue on this path, they will need to realize that their recent stretch of success can just as easily revert to stretches of failure if they ease up.
In closing, I would like to offer one more discussion/topic for this week’s blog. It seems clear to me that the Leafs and Randy Carlyle have decided upon their starting goaltender and further, that perhaps they can now properly decide whether or not to trade James Reimer.
With his equally strong play, Reimer could arguably help the Leafs acquire another piece to help make them a more balanced/stronger team. While he will certainly not yield any top six players (at least not on his own), I feel as though Toronto could stand to improve their bottom six in terms of goal scoring and or skating abilities.
And although these positions should typically be upgraded from within, most players in the Leafs organization at the moment simply do not have enough experience at the NHL level to be relied up a this point in time.
Just a few extra thoughts to ponder over while enjoying the Leafs success, as I think most Leafs fans can attest to the fact that streaks often go both ways in Toronto, and knee-jerk reactions as a result of either can often come back to haunt you.
Thanks for reading!