The year was 2004.
Vincent Lecavalier was a 30-goal scorer. Marty St. Louis was still loved by Tampa Bay Lightning fans. Brad Richards was a Conn Smythe Trophy winner.
Things change.
Today, the New York Rangers bought out the remaining six years of Brad Richards’ nine-year, $60-million deal.
The news didn’t come as much of a surprise, as the player’s $6.67-million cap hit was proving to be too much for New York to bear. In only 210 short games with the Rangers, the former Conn Smythe winner tallied 151 points. Not nearly enough production for a player signed to a mega-deal like that.
With the 34-year-old Richards now available, it’s quite easy to envision him returning to Tampa. A small contingent of Lightning fans is already drooling at the thought of seeing number nineteen back with the first franchise he called home.
As Joe Smith of the Tampa Bay Times reports, it doesn’t sound like Richards is opposed to that idea either:
Agent for @BRichards_1991 says veteran would "certainly respond positively to interest from Tampa." Unclear, however, if Richards is a fit
— Joe Smith (@TBTimes_JSmith) June 21, 2014This blogger would argue that the answer is no.
Don’t get me wrong – I’m a huge Brad Richards fan. The trouble is that Richards is so clearly past his best before date as an effective top six center. Some will point to his 51 points scored in 2013-14 or his decent possession stats as reasons to be intrigued, but there’s so much more that says stay away.
The reality of the situation is that Richards is an aging, slow, one-dimensional player. Don’t believe me? Take a look at this chart, courtesy of ExtraSkater.com, which compares Richards to the Lightning’s current crop of centers:
What you see there is a player (Richards) who needed incredibly sheltered minutes to be successful. It’s much easier to boast respectable possession stats when you’re starting the bulk of your shifts in an offensive position, as Richards did. Even then, the level of success he did achieve wasn’t enough to convince the Rangers that he was worth his salary.
The conclusion to draw from that chart is that Richards produced similar offensive numbers to those of Valtteri Filppula and Tyler Johnson, but he needed far more favorable conditions to do it. Filppula and Johnson played relatively tougher minutes, and yet were no less impressive in the offensive zone.
Further to that comparison, consider that both Johnson and Filppula are significantly younger than Richards, who just turned 34 last month. Players don’t generally improve in their mid-to-late thirties, and it doesn’t look like Richards will be an exception. His points-per-game pace has been on a steady decline for the last handful of years:
This very basic analysis has reaffirmed that Richards is no longer a bona fide top six center in the National Hockey League. Top six centers don't require sheltered minutes to produce an average level of offense. The truth is that Brad Richards is now more of a complementary depth player than a guy who can be counted on to produce night in and night out.
I’ll be the first to admit that I got caught up in the Richards hysteria last year when there was speculation that he might be bought out. This year, after doing my research, I can see that there just isn’t a fit for him with the Lightning. And, before you say “play him on the wing,… just remember that this Bolts team has more young, talented wingers (read: players better than Richards) than it knows what to do with.
Some desperate team will undoubtedly shell out cash and term for Richards, a player with a darn impressive resume. This blogger just hopes that said team won’t be the Tampa Bay Lightning.
As always, thanks for reading.
Michael Stuart has been the Tampa Bay Lightning writer for HockeyBuzz since 2012. Visit his archive to read more or follow him on Twitter.