Welcome to another edition of the Hockeybuzz hotstove.
The Colorado Avalanche entered the season widely considered to be a playoff team by most in the hockey world, but those in the analytics community predicted regression, and that's what we've seen so far.
Will the Avalanche continue to slide and miss the playoffs, or will they figure things out en route to another playoff appearance?
Todd Cordell
I predicted the Avalanche would miss the playoffs before the season, and nothing I've seen so far has me even considering changing my mind.
Daniel Briere has been a downgrade from P.A. Parenteau, Jarome Iginla hasn't fit in just yet and the Avs have been a tire fire when Brad Stuart, who Colorado thought would stabilize the defense, is on the ice.
The Avs have three wins through 14 games, which is the same as Buffalo, and only the Sabres have fared worse in possession thus far.
The offense actually hasn't been that bad and they've continued to lose games despite Semyon Varlamov owning a .925SV%. If that dips, it will be a really long season for Colorado.
One way or the other, I don't see them getting into the playoffs, especially with teams like Minnesota, Chicago and Dallas sitting ahead of them but outside looking in. Those are three very good teams and they'll be tough to surpass.
Ryan Wilson There are no underlying numbers to say things are going to get better. Their possession is 2nd worst in the league at 42.82 (Score-Adjusted Fenwick). Their bottom six forwards aren't going to magically get better and their defense corp. was not actively improved from last year. I think we are seeing the true Avalanche team.
Varlamov will need to play lights out again this year and he is so far while the Avs are killing penalties, he currently has a 100% save percentage on the penalty kill, that certainly is going to trend down. That division is so tough as it is and the Avs look like the same team they were last year, except without the incredibly high PDO.
James Tanner Yes, the Avs will make the playoffs.
The fact is, they have Mackinnon, Duchene, Landeskog and O'Reilly. Let's just consider for a second that Ryan O'Reilly is the 4th best forward on their team. I don't think any team is ever going to miss the playoffs with those four guys on it.
On D they have Barrie, Holden and Johnson, which I think happens to pretty good. And I like their goalie.
Yes, they were the team picked to regress a lot because of their poor possession stats last year, but I don't think it's going to matter. The Avalanche should be a force in the West this year and for years to come.
Adam French It's very hard for me to look at the level of amazing and underrated goaltending they get, plus the competent top-6 and decent bottom-6, plus a strong number one defender and moderate number 2 and not think this team can be dangerous...but it isn't. Defensive depth is the death of the West. Dallas is feeling the pincers, while an unlikely star is forming in Calgary behind what has become an arguably top-5 NHL pairing. The AV's defense is one of the worst in the game right now, it was last year as well, but it was bound to bite them in the arse again. Sorry Iggy NoCupZia, but you chose wrong again, should have tried the Hossa method a little closer and not chased the money. Just another example of elite and amazing players/people coping out to end their career...over money with the media pretense of winning a Cup.
Tim Chiasson Yes - they'll make it.
The Avalanche are still a good hockey team. I definitely think they over-performed last year but they're still a playoff team.
Early season struggles by Nathan MacKinnon, Gabriel Landeskog and Ryan O'Reilly haven't made it easy for the Avs to score goals and put teams away like they did last year. Those players are destined to pick their play up; they're too talented.
Patrick Roy was also adjusting to life without Paul Stastny, whose departure has stung more than originally thought, so that left him with Matt Duchene and the village elders to shoulder the load offensively. Roy is a great coach, all he does is win wherever he goes but he's not a miracle worker.
The Avs defense is weak so they need that powerful offense to run smooth to cover up their deficiencies. The Avs are allowing 35.5 SA/game, good enough to tie for the 2nd highest total in the league. Varlamov's sv% is only .002% lower than it was last year, when he was nominated for the Vezina trophy, so if the defense tightens up even a touch then things will get better.
They won't be at the top of the Western Conference like they were last season but things will turn around for the Avalanche and they'll be in as a wildcard come April.
Ed Stein At this point, I'd say the Avalanche are not a playoff team. Here's why:
-Before the season, the players were cautioning fans and media to temper their expectations. Even they knew they played far over their heads last season.
-Semyon Varlamov has always been a hit and miss goalie. Last year he was a hit, this year he's a miss. Sure he could get hot, but for how long? His career history doesn't show that he can be dominating for an extended period.
-The competition is better. Calgary is a surprise, but Nashville and Winnipeg are improved. Colorado has to play better Chicago, Minnesota and Dallas, who are also currently on the outside looking in. The teams in sixth and seventh in the conference Los Angeles and San Jose are no pushovers either. I don't think that they can pass four of the above teams.
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Do you think the Avalanche will make the playoffs? Why or why not? Feel free to share your thoughts.
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