When play resumes tonight, the Coyotes will sit tied with Dallas for the last “wildcard… playoff spot, and five points back of Minnesota for 7th, with a game in hand. They are also only 4 points back of the LA Kings for third place in the division and a chance to be a higher seed in the playoffs. They also have one game in hand on the Kings.
There are seven teams battling for the two last wildcard positions, but it gets confusing at this point because there is also the final divisional spot the Pacific Division, meaning that Nashville, Minnesota, Dallas and Winnipeg are not able to get this seed, as Colorado has a massive lead on them for their division. This works in the Coyotes favor because Vancouver, LA and Phoenix will be the only teams battling for this spot, though it's possibly just a false hope as those teams are unlikely to continue to be as bad as they have been lately.
This puts the Coyotes in a more favorable chance than the Central Division teams, at least in terms of their percentage chance of making it.
Phoenix Coyotes
When trying to predict the future of the standings, there is no team more important than you yourself.
The Coyotes have played 58 games out of 82. That means there are 24 games left to play and they currently have 64 points.
The Coyotes schedule could be worse: they only play back-to-back games three times the rest of the season. They play a three and a four game homestand, while also playing a three and a four game road trip. This schedule seems about average, with no real significant long road trips or home stands.
As for strength of schedule, they get one game each against Edmonton, Calgary, and New Jersey with two against Florida. They also draw a SJ, St. Louis, a Pittsburgh and two Bostons, but avoid Chicago and Anaheim the rest of the way. I don’t like to make a big deal about schedule strength because sometimes you beat Chicago and then lose to Buffalo. That being said, the Coyotes play 5 games against the best of the best, five games against the lowest teams, and 14 games against teams of comparable position in the standings.
Overall, the Coyotes are exactly what you would expect them to be with their current roster: a .500 team. They can’t be expected to score enough goals to be one of the better teams, but have the D and the goalie to stay in most games. That means you can expect them to go about 10-10-4 the rest of the way. That would give them 88 points and most likely see them miss the playoffs. The last time the NHL had a full season it took 91 points to secure the eight seed. (LA had 95, but the 9th place Flames had 90).
If 91 points holds true, the Coyotes would only need to win 2-3 extra games the rest of the way, which isn’t an impossible number. The problem here is that most of the games are against teams they are fighting with and the number could realistically end up being much higher.
The team’s roster is decent and they always have a chance of riding Mike Smith for a big winning streak, but the reality remains that unless Maloney shakes things up with a Yandle or Murphy type blockbuster trade for a top-end forward, the team will likely have too much trouble scoring to make the playoffs.
LA Kings / Vancouver Canucks.
Both of these teams struggled going into the break and sit far below the expectations of fans and experts alike.
Vancouver is on a seven game losing streak, and both LA and Vancouver sit 2-8-2 in their last ten games.
In my opinion, both of these teams are too strong to sit where they currently sit. The Kings are in fact a stacked team. Centres, Goalies, elite defenseman – they have it all. They are in fact one of the deepest rosters in the league and have recently won a Stanley Cup. I would be shocked if they surrendered the third spot in the division to either the Coyotes or the Canucks.
Most likely, both these teams have hit their bottoms. I can’t see Vancouver missing the playoffs anymore than I can see LA surrendering 3rd. Now, it’s possible they both miss the playoffs, but not likely.
I think that we have seen the worst out of these two teams and that is bad news for the Coyotes. For Phoenix, the main path to the playoffs is the continued implosion of what should be two of the league’s best teams. I think the Olympic break favors no two teams as much is it will prove to favour Vancouver and LA – they are simply too talented to continue this way.
This means that in reality, there is one playoff spot up for grabs between Minnesota, Winnipeg, Phoenix, Nashville and Dallas.
Minnesota
While the Wild are currently leading, the lead is small and it won’t last. I hate to do this to the Wild because they seem to tease every year and then collapse. They are building a great team, but I can't see them making it this year. The reason I see another collapse in their immediate future is due to the uncertainty of their goaltending situation.
Josh Harding, who was the best story in the NHL this year, by far, is not in the lineup and may miss the rest of the year. The goaltending after that is suspect because the health of former #1 goalie Niklas Backstrom is also in doubt. I like their D and I love Parise, but I just don’t see the Wild eking this out with all the teams chasing them.
Winnipeg
The Jets have been on fire since they changed coaches earlier this year. Unfortunately, in reality, Paul Maurice is not a better coach than Claude Noel and the break will – I predict – dissipate any momentum and buzz they had from changing coaches. If you are honest, you have to admit that anyone capable of making the NHL as a coach is good enough and the differences between coaches at this level is microscopic once the initial psychological charge of changing coaches dissipates. It’s still the same team that needed a 7-2 run just to get back in the race and I can’t see them sustaining this and they won’t challenge for the last playoff spot.
Nashville
The Preds sit four points back with one less game to play than Phoenix. While their defense is strong, they have not had their starting goalie for a long, long time. While Rinne is supposedly close to returning, it may be too late. Like Phoenix, the Predators are hard-pressed to score goals and also lack a top end forward to compliment their strong defense and goaltending.
Their schedule is also tough. They play four back-to-backs with three of them coming in just over a week. The fourth one is a Anaheim/San Jose back-to-back near the end of the season. They also have eight games against SJ, Chicago, Pittsburgh, Anaheim and St. Louis.
With Nashville having a similar roster to Phoenix, but with them having an injured goalie and a tougher schedule, I can’t see them being a factor.
Dallas
To me, the Stars are the most likely team to sneak into the final playoff spot. They have good goaltending, and two star forwards. Yes, they are kind of weak on defense, but I think Benn and Seguin overcome this problem.
The Coyotes didn’t do themselves any favors by losing twice to the Stars prior to the break. They play four back-to-backs, but none in April. Their April schedule is probably the easiest of any of these teams and I think they stand probably the best chance to secure the final spot.
Predictions
Overall, the Coyotes have a decent chance to make the playoffs and if they can put together a nice little winning streak – something they haven’t since before Christmas when they at least managed to get to overtime and secure a single point for almost the entire month of December.
I think we can safely assume that Chicago, St.Louis, Anaheim, San Jose and Colorado are locks to make the playoffs.
Unfortunately, while the other three spots seem wide open, I believe that LA and Vancouver will take two of the three remaining playoff spots. This leaves one spot for Minnesota, Winnipeg, Nashville, Dallas and Phoenix.
Ultimately, I think it comes down to Phoenix and Dallas battling for the final spot, and at this point, given their recent play against the Stars and lack of scoring, I have to give Dallas the edge. I predict Dallas will beat out Phoenix for the final spot by two to four points.
Lucky for the Coyotes, the trade deadline can swing things massively and the games actually have to be played, meaning anything can happen.
Here’s hoping.
Thanks for reading.
Twitter:@Coyotes1234