The Situation:
-The Coyotes sit one point back of Dallas, with four games each left.
-The Coyotes, are in Columbus tonight, apparently with their chances to make the playoffs just over 20%. And their remaining games split evenly between home and road.
- Dallas, beginning a three game home-stand, tonight against Nashville, but finishing on the road in Phoenix.
-Phoenix with remaining games against Columbus (tonight) Nashville (Thursday) San Jose (Saturday) and Dallas (Sunday)
-Dallas with Remaining games against Nashville (tonight) Columbus (Tomorrow) St.Louis (Friday) and Phoenix (Sunday)
Analysis
Despite the 20% (roughly) odds of the Coyotes making the playoffs, I think a situational analysis elevates the chances, quite a bit, actually, to something just slightly below even.
In the Coyotes favor is that they get to face Dallas in the final game of the season, meaning that if they can maintain their current status, it all comes down to one game against a team they are due to beat, having lost their last two games against the Stars. Were the Stars a superior team, I would take the two losses to them before the Olympics as a negative, but in this case, based on the parity of the two clubs, you gotta figure things are bound to even out.
There is also the fact that in the final week and a half, the Coyotes get a lot of time off and should be well rested for the final game of the season on Sunday, which is their only back-to-back, while Dallas had three of those in the final week two weeks of the season.
Also in the Coyotes favor is that Dallas is in the midst of a grueling schedule of 4 games in 5 nights. Nashville might be a tough game tonight for them because the Predators are not eliminated -technically- and might have something to play for, making it a tough game. Dallas will then play Columbus and will start the game down a goal. Their other game, against St. Louis is bound to be tough, even if the Blues are just playing out the schedule they doubtfully want to take a potential first round opponent lightly and give them confidence heading into the playoffs.
Going against the Coyotes, first and foremost, is that Mike Smith is still out (though practicing), Martin Hanzal is injured yet again, Mike Ribeiro is turning into a punchline, and the team has four total goals in their last four games. Back-up goalie or not, that is a distressing number. They also get Nashville, who, if they can beat both Dallas and Phoenix have to think they give themselves at least a shot, so that is bound to be a tough game to win, and then there is a game against San Jose, but since Dallas plays St.Louis, these tough matches basically cancel each other out.
Prognosis
Overall, the prognosis is decent, if not great. You have to think the Coyotes are due to score some goals, and so if they can do that, they should win tonight against the Blue Jackets.
The bottom line is this: As long as Dallas loses one of its games this week, and the Coyotes can go 2-1, the final game of the season will be meaningful. Yes, the Coyotes will have to win it in regulation, but that's all you can ask from a team this challenged to score and this ravaged by injuries.
I think the prognosis is good. It sure seems a lot better than 20%
And hey, Arizona is a Red State, right? It's not like science and math have ever hampered us before!!!
My new "more professional" twitter name (still the same account though) James_Tanner123