The Oilers will face off against the Colorado Avalanche tonight in a battle of the two rebuilds. No doubt the Avalanche have made Edmonton look foolish with the way in which they have rocketed up the standings compared to where they were last year. Are their young stars better than Edmonton’s? Is their rebuild “rebuildier… than Edmonton’s? What’s going on here?
THE FORWARDS
Both teams boast some highly skilled players with high draft pedigree. The Oilers have 1st Overall picks Nail Yakupov, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, and Taylor Hall to go alongside other core player Jordan Eberle. The Avs counter with Nate MacKinnon, Matt Duchene, Gabriel Landeskog, and Ryan O’Reilly as their young core. The oldest named player from either list is just 23 years of age. This is truly a collection of talented young men.
While I believe that offensively the Oilers may have more talent in their core, the Avalanche have two players in Landeskog and O’Reilly who bring a much more “total package… game. I’m biased because at heart I’m an Oilers fan and in the long term I would give the edge to the Oilers, but in the right here and now the Avs young forwards have the edge. Given the struggles this season for Nail Yakupov it would be difficult to give the decision to Edmonton.
Slight edge to the Avs.
THE DEFENSE
Buzz, your girlfriend! Woof. Neither defense boasts anything special right now. These are defensive groups that you probably wouldn’t want to take into the playoffs…assuming you could actually make the playoffs with those defenses (The Avs hold the 3rd spot in the Central but their hot start has cooled off and could find themselves battling for the Wildcard if they don’t get back on track.)
Edmonton’s best young Defensemen are Jeff Petry, Justin Schultz, Darnel Nurse, and Oscar Klefbom. Ugh. Right off the hop you’ll notice that two of those players aren’t even NHLers. Edmonton’s defense is a patchwork of guys playing above their heads, fill-ins, and veterans that don’t have enough talent to impact the game on a nightly basis. The Oilers’ best all-around Dman is Petry. Just let that sink in. Justin Schultz is still learning his way into playing in the NHL. He has offensive talent but is going through his sophomore slump. The other two are prospects, and Defensive prospects develop so slowly and so unevenly that the truth is Nurse and Klefbom could be NHL ready next year or not for another 2-3 years and it shouldn’t surprise us.
The Avs boast 25 year old Erik Johnson as their key young player on their back end. The next young player of any note is Tyson Barrie who has only appeared in 19 games this season. Out of the NHL they have Duncan Siemens in the AHL who has played 13 games and contributed 0 points so far. They also have Chris Bigras who (somehow) beat out Nurse for an invite to Team Canada’s selection camp.
As noted by helpful commenter DDM-Coga, the Avs also have Stefan Elliott in the minors who is a prospect of note for them. (24 GP, 5-8-13)
The biggest distinction between these Defenses is that the Avalanche have a lot more experience on theirs. The average age of an Avalanche Defenseman who has appeared in 25 or more games is 31, for the Oilers it’s 28. That’s just age, but take also into consideration that the Oilers are playing some of its youngest and least experienced players the most a night.
Slight Edge Oilers (I like their young Dmen more than the Avs)
GOALTENDING
This one isn’t even close. The Avs did something that that Edmonton hasn’t done since they acquired Roloson, they gave up an asset to get a Goalie. They paid a hefty price to get Varlamov and now that gamble has paid off in a big way (too bad about him allegedly being a horrible person who may be deported or jailed because of it). But keeping to the on-ice performance, the Avs are crushing the Oilers.
Edmonton has Dubnyk and Bryzgalov in net and a swath of underperforming goalie prospects in the minors. The Avs have Varlamov and JS Giguere for a tandem that has really been gangbusters for Colorado. I cant stress enough how incredible the difference in net has been for the two clubs. If you believe that Roy’s system is driving save percentage then no one can help you, but transposing Colorado’s collective goaltending performances to Edmonton’s shots against and the season becomes very different for the Oilers.
The Oil have allowed 122 goals on 1122 shots against (bad). The Avalanche have gotten .924sv% from 70.77% of the time split between their goalies and .935sv% from the remaining 29.23% of the minutes played. If the Oilers had been getting a similar level of Goaltending they would have only given up 81 goals. That’s a 41 goal difference people. Want to know why the Avalanche rebuild looks like a winner and the Oilers’ looks like Arts & Crafts Day in the remedial class? Look no further than the performance in net this year.
Avs, Clear Winner
LINEUPS
Arcobello has a rib injury (that happens when your chest is caved in by Drew Doughty) so Lander draws in. Speculation is also has Dubnyk coming in to play. Dubnyk’s career numbers against Colorado are good, but I cant help shake the feeling that the Oilers with Dubnyk are Charlie Brown with that damned Football.
Hall RNH Eberle Perron Gagner Yak Smyth Gordon Hemsky Jones Lander Gazdic
Ference Petry N. Schultz J. Schultz Belov Larsen
Dubnyk
OILERS KEY TO THE GAME
1) Lucy Doesn’t Pull That Football. The hope that Dubnyk’s career numbers vs Colorado outweigh the plain fact that he cant stop a beach ball are going to have to hold up over this game.
2) Play With Urgency. That 3rd period against the Kings was weak. I understand that the Kings are a significantly better team than the Oilers, but where’s the urgency? They couldn’t muster up anything. Big or not, the Oil need to play like the other team owes them money.
3) Smarten Up. The 3 goals against in the last game happened because of mental lapses by Oilers players. Bad shift changes, leaving your position for no good reason at all, or forcing plays when there are open passing lanes are burying this team. They need to smarten up, and fast.
Puck Drops tonight at 7:38PM Mountain Time on Sportsnet. Game On!
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