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Well, I suppose that we are reaching a point where fans whose teams have been eliminated from the playoffs are getting excited for the 2014 NHL draft.
On that note, I thought that I would introduce the topic with a few thoughts and numbers. For those who do not follow the discussion thread on a daily basis, we have been discussing the Calgary Flames 4th overall draft pick and what drafting at this spot generally yields in terms of talent or success.
With that established, and to get things started, I felt as though I would offer trends with respect to the previous 4th overall draft selections over the years. Below are all the selections made across the NHL since 2003. What I will then offer, is a summary of which player, based off previous results, may be the best “chance… for success.
For those who followed my blog from earlier today, I explained how advanced stats perhaps has taken on a bad name from some, and are perhaps relied upon too heavily by others. How this relates? Well what I am going to offer, in relation, is a summary of players selected in the 4th overall selection and close to, in order to assess who I feel the Flames could be best suited to choose.
Here are the 4th overall selected players from 2013-2003:
Seth Jones D USA 6' 3" 205 Griffin Reinhart D CAN 6' 3" 206 Adam Larsson D SWE 6' 3" 197 Ryan Johansen C CAN 6' 2" 192 Evander Kane C CAN 6' 2" 195 Alex Pietrangelo CAN 6' 3" 206 Thomas Hickey D CAN 5' 11" 184 Nicklas Backstrom SWE 6' 1" 210 Benoit Pouliot LW CAN 6' 3" 199 Andrew Ladd LW CAN 6' 3" 205 Nikolay Zherdev UKR 6' 2" 203
In looking at the above, we can see that there seems to be some pretty good players selected 4th overall, so far. Because a good percentage of them have not really established themselves as full time NHLers, it’s a little hard to say what success rate the above presents, but I would argue that it is going to be 80% or higher in terms of a player who has a long NHL career, given what we've seen from these players to date.
That said, the average size of the players above are 6’2 and 200lbs. The average player seems to be drafted from the WHL (6/11), and are Canadian. While these facts will not give us a good enough indication of what type of player to lean toward when deciding between a small group of highly skilled young players, adding a little more data may help in that regard.
Below are the 4th overall selected players, for an additional 10 years. We will then be able to assess the percentage of successful NHL careers these players had, and of those who were most successful, what the common denominator is, so to speak.
Joni Pitkanen D FIN 6' 3" 210 Stephen Weiss C CAN 5' 11" 185 Rostislav Klesla CZE 6' 3" 221 Pavel Brendl RW CZE 6' 1" 204 Bryan Allen D CAN 6' 5" 220 Roberto Luongo CAN 6' 3" 217 Alexander Volchkov RUS 6' 2" 205 Chad Kilger LW CAN 6' 4" 224 Jason Bonsignore USA 6' 4" 220 Paul Kariya LW CAN 5' 10" 185
Of this list, we observe two players who were considered “stars… in Paul Kariya and Roberto Luongo (yes he’s still playing…though I don’t consider him to be a “star… anymore…I digress).
Outside of these two, we have players such as Stephen Weiss, Joni Pitkanen, and Bryan Allen who have had respectable careers so far. Those remaining have either had short careers in the NHL or took their talents overseas. With that established, I would conclude that this list of players had a 50% success rate.
While players like Kariya and Luongo were very solid picks for this group, there were too many players who had a very short or no NHL career to speak of, and as such I left it divided down the middle. With that established, if you were to combine both groups as a total, I would estimate that the 4th overall selection has a 70%+ success rate in the NHL today. Good news so far for Flames fans.
What's interesting to note about the above is that the average height and weight of the 4th overall drafted player between 2003-1993 was 6'3 and 210lbs. Seems as though scouts are moving away from pure size for skill of late, and for good reason.
Because most drafts are educated guesses, and a player can move up and down a few spots (outside of the top two, generally), I will provide all draft picks made from 3rd overall to 8th overall over the past 10 years to give a good idea of what the overall picture of these players look like.
Jonathan Drouin LW CAN 5' 10" 186 QMJHL Halifax Seth Jones D USA 6' 3" 205 WHL Portland Elias Lindholm C SWE 6' 0" 192 Sweden Brynas Sean Monahan C CAN 6' 2" 187 OHL Ottawa Darnell Nurse D CAN 6' 3" 185 OHL Sault Ste. Marie Rasmus Ristolainen FIN 6' 4" 207 Finland TPS Alex Galchenyuk USA 6' 0" 194 OHL Sarnia Griffin Reinhart D CAN 6' 3" 206 WHL Edmonton Morgan Rielly D CAN 6' 0" 200 WHL Moose Jaw Hampus Lindholm SWE 6' 3" 195 Sweden Rogle Jr. Mathew Dumba CAN 5' 11" 184 WHL Red Deer Derrick Pouliot D CAN 5' 11" 192 WHL Portland Jonathan Huberdea CAN 6' 1" 171 QMJHL Saint John Adam Larsson D SWE 6' 3" 197 Sweden Skelleftea Ryan Strome C CAN 6' 0" 177 OHL Niagara Mika Zibanejad C SWE 6' 2" 195 Sweden Djurgardens Mark Scheifele C CAN 6' 2" 184 OHL Barrie Sean Couturier C USA 6' 3" 197 QMJHL Drummondville Erik Gudbranson D CAN 6' 4" 195 OHL Kingston Ryan Johansen C CAN 6' 2" 192 WHL Portland Nino Niederreiter CHE 6' 2" 205 WHL Portland Brett Connolly RW CAN 6' 2" 181 WHL Prince George Jeff Skinner C CAN 5' 10" 193 OHL Kitchener Alexander BurmistroRUS 6' 1" 180 OHL Barrie Matt Duchene C CAN 5' 11" 200 OHL Brampton Evander Kane C CAN 6' 2" 195 WHL Vancouver Brayden Schenn CAN 6' 1" 190 WHL Brandon Oliver Ekman-Larss SWE 6' 2" 190 Sweden D2 Leksand Nazem Kadri C CAN 6' 0" 188 OHL London Scott Glennie RW CAN 6' 1" 185 WHL Brandon Zach Bogosian D USA 6' 3" 215 OHL Peterborough Alex Pietrangelo CAN 6' 3" 206 OHL Niagara Luke Schenn D CAN 6' 2" 229 WHL Kelowna Colin Wilson C USA 6' 1" 214 H-EAST Boston University Mikkel Boedker LW DNK 5' 11" 202 OHL Kitchener Kyle Turris C CAN 6' 1" 185 BCHL Burnaby Thomas Hickey D CAN 5' 11" 184 WHL Seattle Karl Alzner D CAN 6' 3" 206 WHL Calgary Sam Gagner F CAN 5' 11" 191 OHL London Jakub Voracek RW CZE 6' 2" 214 QMJHL Halifax Zach Hamill C CAN 5' 11" 180 WHL Everett Nikita Filatov LW RUS 6' 0" 190 Russia D3 CSKA 2 Jonathan Toews CAN 6' 2" 210 WCHA U. of North Dakota Nicklas Backstrom SWE 6' 1" 210 Sweden Brynas Phil Kessel C USA 6' 0" 202 WCHA U. of Minnesota Derick Brassard CAN 6' 1" 199 QMJHL Drummondville Kyle Okposo RW USA 6' 0" 210 USHL Des Moines Peter Mueller C USA 6' 2" 204 WHL Everett Jack Johnson D USA 6' 1" 219 USDP USA U-18 Benoit Pouliot LW CAN 6' 3" 199 OHL Sudbury Carey Price G CAN 6' 3" 219 WHL Tri-City Gilbert Brule C CAN 5' 11" 186 WHL Vancouver Jack Skille RW USA 6' 1" 215 USDP USA U-18 Devin Setoguchi RW CAN 6' 0" 200 WHL Saskatoon Cam Barker D CAN 6' 3" 215 WHL Medicine Hat Andrew Ladd LW CAN 6' 3" 205 WHL Calgary Blake Wheeler RW USA 6' 5" 205 USHSW Breck Al Montoya G USA 6' 2" 195 CCHA U. of Michigan Rostislav Olesz C CZE 6' 1" 214 Czech Republic Vitkovice Alexandre Picard LW CAN 6' 2" 206 QMJHL Lewiston That is quick the large list, I know. But don’t worry I’ve done all the work for you. Of these picks, here is the most common trait of each pick from 3rd overall to 8th, over the past ten years.
Most dominant - Position selected: Centerman - Place of birth: Canadian - Size of player: 6’1, 198lbs - Amateur league: WHL
While the above is merely offered as a prediction tool, it appears that the Calgary Flames, if they follow trends from the past 20 years, will select Leon Draisaitl who should, again according to trends, have a rather successful career.
This blog was offered to invite the discussion of the upcoming NHL draft offer some history on drafting records. I will be focusing a little more on the upcoming draft and the player(s) who the Flames are most likely interested in, however as per the above, I would put my money on Draisaitl if he’s still available.
Thanks for reading!