The Oilers are too young. There’s no question there. All of the players in the top 6 are 25 years of or younger (mostly younger) and the Defensemen climbing the depth chart the fastest are still waiting to sprout their first chest hairs. So because of that the club too green for its own good should trade its 3rd Overall pick for established talent, right?
Wrong.
Wait, wrong? Yeah, wrong. The Oilers are disturbingly young and looking to graduate even younger players to the NHL but unless Nashville decides it’s time to move Shea Weber then there is likely no return for the 3rd Overall pick that will outweigh this opportunity to draft controllable (read, affordable) high end talent. Does Edmonton need older players who can play significant minutes? No doubt about it, but at what cost?
The Oilers are guaranteed either the highest rated Defender in the Draft or one of 3 Centers who can play behind RNH for a Decade. There’s absolutely no guarantee that any NHL club will be willing to part with a high-end defenseman for the 3rd Overall pick. Keeping the pick all but cements one of the team’s biggest weaknesses. It would take a big offer from another team to make me lean towards moving it, and if Team X was willing to make such an offer then I don’t know why they wouldn’t try it on Buffalo or Florida first.
Since we’ve already mentioned Florida, the Panthers have already expressed publicly that they are open for business on the pick. So just to reiterate, MacT’s phone probably isn’t ringing off the hook with offers for the 3rd pick while the 1st is readily available for the same price. So lets move off of that, shall we? It just doesn’t make sense for potential trade partners to ignore better deals, nor does it make a lot of sense for Edmonton to forsake the chance to solidify a real weakness with a controlled asset.
I’m going to put a pin in the idea that Ekblad falls to #3 for a moment and assume for right now that the Oilers are forced to choose between one of Bennett, Draisaitl, and Reinhart. All 3 are highly offensive players. All 3 would be destined to play softer minutes in the NHL, likely on a line with Yak and Perron. All 3 bring a different dimension to the game.
Bennett plays an ultra-competitive game. He’s an aggressive player who can add a physical element down the middle that is currently absent from the club. He would fit in well as the 2 of a 1-2 punch that hammers the opposition after RNH lands precision jabs in the prior shift. He plays bigger than he is and that style of play has always made lasting impressions in the dressing room and in the stands.
Draisaitl brings the combination of size and skill that the Oilers have been dreaming of for the better part of my adult life and will surely be difficult to pass up. He isn’t a behemoth but he’s got above average height and 200+ pounds as a teenager. He could easily pack on a few extra pounds and help fix the perception that Edmonton is a small team. Foil a big guy who can protect the puck with his natural size and his offensive instincts with the smaller Sam Gagner whose skating and puck protection has been suspect in the past.
Finally Reinhart brings hockey IQ in bunches. The Oil have a similar player already in Nugent-Hopkins but can there really be too much vision on an offensive line? Yes, he’s a smaller player, but he isn’t going to be facing the best opposition every night, the older RNH will be tasked with those duties. He just might be the kind of player who can get the most out of the dynamic Yakupov’s shooting abilities.
I just don’t see a poor choice if the Oilers keep the pick. I think Bennett or Draisaitl are more likely, but still no bad choices. And there is always the chance that the player the Oilers covet the most could fall to number 3. There was absolutely no chance that Seth Jones would go lower than 2nd Overall last year, but he fell to 4 anyway and I thought he had much stronger buzz than Ekblad. The two teams ahead of the Oil in the this draft, Florida and Buffalo, could not score. They finished 29 and 30 in NHL goal scoring. In fact, Buffalo’s 150 goals on the season are the lowest ever goal total recorded for a full season in the modern era.
There is a very real chance that these two teams could forego the chance to draft a stalwart defender for the chance to get an infusion of offense to their teams.
So should Edmonton trade the pick? No. The chance to address major weaknesses with a player who will be a part of your team for a Decade is still too big of a draw to pass up. The team needs veteran players in key positions, but I just don’t see it happening at the expense of the 3rd Overall selection in the 2014 NHL Entry Draft.
Follow me on Twitter @Archaeologuy