Over the last few days I've been playing around with data for draft eligible prospects in this year's class.
I was reviewing the Blue Jackets prospect system and decided to graph the data for their prospects in the CHL.
The two statistics I graphed are even strength points and even strength goal differential, which is simply on-ice goals for divided by on-ice goals against.
It's important not to put too much stock into the even strength goal differential as in the CHL bad teams are really, well, bad where as elite teams can inflate those numbers at times. That said, I think they're interesting to look at and can be useful in proper context.
For example, Rychel's goal differential at evens was the highest among all players on the powerhouse Guelph team, so his numbers are extremely encouraging.
As for even strength points, it's pretty simple. It's just a simple measurement to see how effective a player is at full strength. Considering a large portion of every game is spent in that aspect, it's important to be able to produce without having a man advantage.
Note: Data via McKeen's Hockey. Takeaways from that graph:
- Bjorkstrand's numbers are excellent. Everyone knew he had offensive talent, but I don't think anybody expected that kind of production, especially so soon after being drafted. He was near the top of his team in goal differential as well. It'll be interesting to follow his progress next year and see if his production dips. Portland won't have as much talent on their roster next season, so if he can post similar numbers it'll be very encouraging.
- Rychel is a beast. He posted excellent numbers on a mediocre Windsor team, and when he was traded to a powerhouse team in Guelph his numbers took off even more so. He was the driving force behind their OHL title and Memorial Cup Final appearance, so you can't be anything but pleased with his progress at this point. Like with Bjorkstrand, his ability to produce at evens is encouraging.
- Josh Anderson didn't post big numbers, but his goal differential relative to his team was very good. Only London's captain and San Jose Sharks prospect Chris Tierney posted a better goal differential at evens. As I mentioned, Anderson's even strength production in terms of points wasn't that great, but he's not much of a scorer and projects to be a bottom-6 forward so it's not an issue. I think at this point he's on track to become an NHL player.
- I've always liked Nick Moutrey's game, and in live viewings I came away impressed more often than not. That shows up in the data, too, as he was only .09 away from being tops on the team in even strength goal differential. His even strength point totals were relatively encouraging. All but four of his 41 points came 5 vs 5. That said, he didn't see a ton of power play ice as he was on a team that - while they were kicked out of the playoffs in the 1st round - had lots of talent and depth up front.
- Onto Dillon Heatherington: highest goal differential on the team among those with 55+ games - he played 70 - and 27 of his 35 points came at full strength. Encouraging numbers. WHL scouts and writers I've talked to were impressed by his development this past year.
- Lastly, we have Peter Quenneville. His goal differential was poor relative to his team, though they weren't great either, but he did produce offense. He posted 52 points in 44 games, which prorated would have easily been the highest production clip on the team.
Overall Blue Jackets prospects in the CHL performed quite well last season. I look forward to tracking the production of returning prospects as well as the new CHLers drafted in a few weeks time.
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