The Canes take to the ice in Tuesday in Washington after a disappointing holiday weekend that saw 2 home losses. But by virtue of the fact that the Metro Division as a whole continues to struggle, the Canes continue to find themselves right in the mix for 1 of the division’s 3 playoff spots. The 3 teams immediately above the Canes in the standings (Rangers, Flyers, Devils) all lost on Monday, so with a win Tuesday the Canes could jump to a tie for 4th (with New Jersey) in the division and only a single point behind the Rangers at #3 and 3 points behind #2 Washington.
Put more simply: As much as it feels like the Canes are having a hard time of it lately, they are still right in the thick of the playoff chase and 2 good weeks of hockey away from climbing to the top of the messy Metro Division fray.
The opponent is a familiar 1 in former Southeast Division foe Washington. In 2013-14, the Capitals are an average team that is incredibly good playing non-real NHL hockey of the 4-on-4 or even worse skills competition variety. The Caps are 2-0 in overtime and 6-2 in the shootout. If games were declared a tie when the real hockey ended, the Caps, minus those 8 points, would actually trail the Canes by a point in the standings.
The Caps come in with 2 straight wins after losing 4 (with 1 OTL point) prior to that. With 2 losing streaks and 2 winning streaks of 3 or more games, the Caps season has been an up and down affair just like the Canes with benefit of scraping our more regulation ties and being incredibly good at winning extra point in those affairs. The player to watch on the Caps is of course Alexander Ovechkin who caught and passed Alexander Steen in goals scored and leads the league with 21.
Near the beginning of November when the Canes had lost 5 in a row, I declared that the upcoming 5-game home stand had the potential to become an early end to the Canes 2013-14 playoff hopes. With strong play from Justin Peters and a sturdy defense, the team turned just enough offense into a 4-0-1 run to climb back near breakeven and continue to tread water until it could get healthier. Since then the team is 2-5-1 and trying to keep its head above water. I fear that the team is right back where it started before the winning streak. December breaks up into 2 sections. The current stretch features 6 of 7 games on the road (following the Dec 1 home game against Vancouver). The 2nd half of the month is the usual disjointed a game home, a game off, a holiday, etc. during the last 10-11 days of the month. Now sitting in the bottom portion of the bunched up Metro Division, I think the upcoming 7-game stretch again has the potential to be catastrophic. It is not that the Canes need to win out to make up the gap immediately, but rather the team needs to at least continue to tread water. My math says that 8 points or more would be pretty good, 7 good enough, 6 livable and too much less than that starting to dig a hole that will be difficult to get out of. The Canes schedule in January is favorable. The key is to get there with playoff hopes intact and a lineup that can start firing on all cylinders.
But taking it 1 game at a time, keys to the game from the Canes side vs. the Caps are:
1) Slow #8. Sekera is traveling with the team, so it looks like he will be a true game-time decision. If Sekera is out, that sees Ovechkin steaming down the right side at Harrison, Hainsey and Komisarek. With the Caps at home and having the ability to dictate matchups a bit, Komisarek and Harrison could be in for a challenging assignment trying to slow 20-22 minutes of Ovechkin roaring at them. Regardless of if Sekera plays, the key is for the Canes forwards to be aware of Ovechkin and get back quickly to help close angles and reduce the number of possibilities that the defensemen must defend by themselves. The Canes defensemen need to be good, but the centers and left wings need to be part of 2-3 man units that limit the amount of ice that #8 has access to with the puck on his stick.
2) Special teams. Best case scenario is that someone steals the referees whistles before the game. The Caps come in at #3 in the NHL on the power play, while the Canes recent struggles with the man advantage have been much documented. If this game turns into a special teams battle, the Canes chance of success drops precipitously.
3) A better start. The Canes need to find a way to come out with more jump and ideally score first for a change. The team’s roving period of magic has moved to the 2nd period that has regularly seen the Canes score 2-3 goals. If the Canes can get through the 1st period breakeven or even better yet up a goal, the path to a win gets easier.
Things I will be watching early:
--Team defense on #8. Do the forwards have the awareness/diligence and are they doing the work to help limit Ovechkin’s options with the puck on his stick? As a RW, he comes down the side of Tlusty, Gerbe, Skinner and Bowman with the centers also in play helping close off moves back to the middle of the ice. If it looks like the defensemen are going to be left on an island defensively all night, I am not real optimistic about how it ends.
--Ward rebound (not rebounds). Cam Ward was mediocre at best last week allowing 11 goals in 3 games for a GAA in the 3.7 range and a Save % of 0.867. You could tell he was fighting it a bit Sunday by his struggles with rebound control which is 1 of Ward’s strong points when he is playing well. Ideal would be for him to see some routine shots early to work his way into the game minus any early goals against.
--Looking for sparks. The Canes could use a spark or 2 early to get things going and to keep the ice from tilting the wrong way early like it has too often lately. There are many candidates. Jordan Staal and his line in total have been very good recently despite the team’s struggles. Drayson Bowman continues to skate hard and play well and became a line rover in Sunday’s game playing shifts with multiple lines. Could he be a surprise breakout on the score sheet? Eric Staal has been collecting points at a good clip lately. Could he be ready to step up to the next level with a huge game outburst or 2? Could Jeff Skinner who has been quiet of late rise up? I think it takes at least 3 to win tonight. If I am right, it will take a burst of offense from somewhere to get a win.
The puck drops a little bit after 7pm on Fox Sports Carolinas.
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