Jeff Skinner notches 3 points including a late game-winning goal. The Canes win an exciting 5-4 affair. And Skinner fans leave PNC Arena hugging their brand new Jeff Skinner bobbleheads happy as can be.
And then I wake up and seek a more modest and probably reasonable version of success.
With the stolen OTL point in Boston on Saturday, the Canes enter Sunday's 5pm game in Raleigh with a chance to salvage an okay (not great) week with a 1-2-1 record with a win. At some point the Canes need to start winning at a higher rate more consistently to stay in the playoff chase, but for now a week of sort of treading water versus the alternative of drowning would be a decent ending. And with the team getting healthier (only Semin's injury is really holding the team back right now) and the brutal schedule finally getting ready to ease up, there is legitimate reason to believe that such a run of more consistent winning hockey is possible.
But future aside and back to the here and now, the Canes get Ottawa on Sunday. They also get what could be a built in physical advantage. Both teams played and traveled yesterday, so at a basic level it is a "fair back-to-back" that I think the NHL should try to do more of. But a deeper look says the Canes have the much better situation. They played early and should have been home for late dinner and in time to watch the Sens game if they chose. Meanwhile, Ottawa played at 7pm in Detroit and arrived in Raleigh late Saturday night.
The Sens won Saturday night breaking a 3-game losing streak. Do they come into Raleigh a with a burst of energy and confidence from the win? Or do they more preferably come in having already earned a decent point total for the weekend back-to-back? On the season, the Sens are a single point ahead of the Canes having played the same number of games.
Comparing the 2 teams across 2012-13 and 2013-14 uncovers and interesting flip flop. Ottawa made the 2012-13 playoffs via a combination of strong goaltending 3 goalies deep (Bishop was originally #3 and played his way into trade value and a starting job in Tampa) and a team defense that led the league in goals against. Meanwhile in 2012-13, the Canes were pretty good offensively, especially early in the 2012-13 season, but struggled to keep the puck out of their own net as the season wore on. 2013-14 is almost a reverse. In the Canes wins at least, the key has been solid team defense and good goaltending much of it from #3 Justin Peters, but the 2013-14 Canes are struggling to score. The Sens, on the other hand, are 7th in scoring but 23rd in goals allowed reversing course from last season.
Keys to the game:
1) Escape the right corner hole. Over the past few games, the Canes have struggled mightily to get the puck out of their own end which has resulted in the team playing much more defense than offense and huge deficits in terms of shots and scoring chances. But most of those games were against elite teams at the top of the league defensively. Playing a more equal opponent, the hope is that the Canes can play a more even or even better game. It all starts from making significant improvement in terms of moving the puck out of their own end especially when it starts from deep in the right end. The scouting report is out on Bellemore's preference for short, quick safe passes to get the puck off his stick. Faulk has also struggled moving the puck of late. Against the Bruins, the right defensemen having the puck in the far corner without any space to get started must have had an 80% change of possession (back to Boston) tied to it. But Ottawa should not be nearly the forechecking pressure cooker that Boston or Detroit were. Here is hoping the Canes can make a few small adjustments combat Ottawa following the same successful approach and that slightly lesser personnel will also help. Minus the ability to move the puck better, I am not sure the opponent even matters because it just results in playing too much defense which ultimately ends badly.
2) Offense. Somewhat related to #1, the Canes need to generate something offensively. Against Boston on Saturday, the Canes had huge stretches of generating absolutely nothing. The only 2 tallies came from a bit of a fluky power play goal and a 3rd period burst of shorthanded offense and a goal down a player.
3) Jump out of the gate. It is a home game with a slight physical advantage. This is exactly the came where you need to ride the better rest situation and the home crowd to a good 1st period.
Face-off is a little after 5pm. You will need to get there a bit earlier to get your Skinner bobblehead, as they are only for the 1st 10,000 fans.
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