Coming out of PNC Arena after a great win on Tuesday, I asked the people I was at the game with how many games the Canes needed to win in a row to climb back into the playoff chase. The 1st answer was 7. Sitting on 1, that answer did not feel real good. My 1st thought was that number was too high. It had to be more like 4 or 5. But in thinking about it, I am not sure it is that far off. Going into Tuesday, the Canes were 8 points out of a playoff spot, so that is 4 wins. But winning 4 is not enough because at least some of the teams in front of the Canes will manage to win 2 if not 3 games. So to get all the way back into the mix (within a point or 2), it probably would take about 7 wins, figuring at least most of the teams in front of the Canes would need to go 3-4 or 4-3 over that period. Gulp. But I still think the next stretch of 4 games is interesting. The Canes get 2 games that they should win sandwiched around a challenging road tilt in Boston and then finish the stretch with a game against Columbus who is 1 of the 2 teams currently sitting in the last 2 playoff spots that the Canes are chasing. Maybe more interestingly, the other team (the Flyers) play back-to-backs against Pittsburgh on Sat/Sun and then Chicago after that. It is not outlandish to hope for a quick 0-3 run for the Flyers to help things out. But the short version is that the odds are still very long for the Canes.
I have resigned myself for hoping the team wins the next game. Except in the case where you are battling for a Crosby or Ovechkin at #1, I think losing a bunch of games to move 2-3 spots in the draft order is overrated. The Canes picked Brandon Sutter and Jeff Skinner after seasons where they made late surges to give up draft order and still missed the playoffs. Had they finished lower, might the team have ended up worse off? And more simply, I just cannot bring myself to watch a Canes game root for them to lose, especially if I am in attendance.
So that leaves me looking only at Thursday's game against Buffalo. It is a trap game. It is a game in which everything points to a win, and for those clinging to playoff hopes or trying to rekindle them, it is obviously a must-win game. The Sabres are now minus a bunch of key players (Miller, Moulson, Ott) after the trade deadline and seemingly just playing out the string. The Canes are coming off a very strong effort in a good win on Tuesday. It feels like a sure win...just like last time the Canes played Buffalo...just like the miserable home loss to Calgary...etc.
My keys to the game:
1) Same effort and level of play. The Canes are better talent-wise than Buffalo right now, but that only pays off in wins if you play well. The Canes need to ignore the opponent and just play the same game that they played on Tuesday. If they do, they are the better team and should be rewarded for it.
2) Sound in net. Cam Ward was good in net on Tuesday. This is obviously good news and a step in the right direction, but I would not declare whatever was ailing him cured after 1 good outing. It will be interesting to see who Muller starts on Thursday. While there is a case for coming back to Ward after a good game Tuesday, I still think I would go back to Khudobin. With a much longer string of consistently good hockey, I just think there is greater safety of getting goaltending that is good enough. The hope is that just like last time against Buffalo, the team is not looking for a goalie to steal a game but just not lose it. For that, I think Khudobin is the safer bet.
3) Top of the roster. Buffalo's roster is full of guys who are hungry and competing for where they fit next season. But they are light on top-tier NHL talent right now. The Canes top players need to step up, outplay their opponents and lead the way.
What say you Canes fans? How many wins does it take for the Canes to climb back in the playoff chase? Am I right that this is a trap game? Would you go right back to Ward or get Khudobin back in the mix?
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