After an important 4-point in in Philadelphia on Wednesday night, I posted this on Twitter:
#Canes win only counts if they can follow it up with a win vs. #Sabres Thursday night.
— Matt Karash (@CarolinaMatt63) January 23, 2014Buffalo sits dead last in the NHL and will soon begin a yard sale to collect whatever they can for a bunch of soon to be unrestricted free agents. The team comes in having lost 4 straight (2 were in shootouts). So this should be an easy win for the Canes right?
Wrong. I put this at roughly a 50/50 game. --The Canes have the physical disadvantage of playing the night before and traveling. --A closer look at the Sabres suggests that they are not actually as bad as advertised. If you cut out the silly skills competition, the last 4 games are actually 2 ties and 2 1-goal losses. In addition, the stretch of hockey that doomed the season was back in Oct/Nov. The team has actually been okay since then. --The team has not 1 but 2 goalies working to get ready for the Olympics. --And most significantly the Sabres are capable of bringing exactly the blue collar game that has been the Canes Achilles heel this season regardless of quality of opponent.
This game will be the 3rd in recent times where the 2nd game of a set had a big impact on the general trajectory of the team. Coming out of a great 5-game winning streak, the Canes lost a back-to-back on the road in Columbus to end it and then had a very winnable home matchup against Calgary a couple days later that carried the chance to quickly get back on the winning track. The Canes failed miserably, lost 2-0 and set up an incredibly arduous 4-day layoff. Next the Canes rebounded by beating Florida on Saturday which put the ball on the tee for a good weekend with a win over Tampa on Sunday. The team again flopped miserably when the combination of a horrible 1st period by Sekera/Faulk and no help from a rusty Justin Peters in net more or less decided that game by the end of 20 minutes of hockey.
So here we go again. With Columbus scorching hot and other teams in the Metro Division starting to win and run away from the bottom of the division, the Canes are staring at another "2nd of 2" mini-stretch that either puts the team in the category of "treading water" which has turned into "falling further behind" in January or beginning to string something together.
The importance of these winnable games is growing. The time to make a run is slowly ticking away. With the challenging back-to-back situation the Canes need to find a way to grind out any kind of win in Buffalo on Thursday night.
Keys to the game:
1) Willingness, ability and determination to win ugly. This game sets up very much like the Calgary team. To put it bluntly, the opponent just is not a great hockey team. The game is clearly winnable. But the opponent features a strong goalie (Miller or Enroth) who is unlikely to get beat much on shots he sees. In the offensive zone, the Canes need to get possession with enough numbers, get bodies to the front, throw the puck in there and find a way to make it hit twine, NOT settle for low percentage lottery ticket shots at the net from well out with no traffic. In the defensive zone (and to some degree offensive zone), the Canes need to consistently fight and win puck battles in the corners and behind the nets.
If the Canes do not bring the hard hats and lunch pails, this game has the potential to look very much like the disappointing Columbus and Calgary losses.
2) Ride the wave. Tlusty/EStaal/Semin is finally starting to heat up. They need to be the best line on the ice tonight, carry the play and kick in offensively again.
I really think it is that simple. The Canes need to play desperate like they must have this game and are willing to do whatever it takes across 60 minutes to get it, and their best players (who are better than Buffalo's best players) need to lead the charge. If this happens, the Canes should win. If instead, the Canes show up with the intent of spending the 1st period or so hunting around for an easy win before dialing up the desperation only if it is needed, it could be too late and leave the team frustrated and scratching their heads on the flight home.
A couple other things I will be watching:
--Tuomo Ruutu. He played his best game in weeks last night. It is not about scoring. It is not about getting a ton of ice time (he played only 11 minutes Wed). It is about being a physical force each and every shift which is how he makes a mark on hockey games when he is playing well. A back-to-back is a physical challenge, so I will be anxious to see if he can carry what he did Wednesday forward to a 2nd game.
--The blue line. Best guess is that Muller sticks with the lineup that won Wednesday (except that Dwyer is probably out which should see Bowman if he is ready or possibly a call-up enter at forward), but if Muller has any ambitions of using his stable of 8 defenseman to keep guys fresh and insert players which jump from rest, tonight would be an opening for that. Will Muller insert Bellemore or Murphy to get fresh legs possibly even as a 7th defenseman in Dwyer's spot?
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