Almost everyone said (and by "almost everyone" I mean me) going into this 3rd segment of 10 games that the Senators would be hard pressed to remain in a playoff spot, given the "Murderer's Row" type of schedule that faced them.
They are only part way through, and if thing go according to the standings, the Senators could be in a deep, deep hole in two weeks' time that they won't be able to recover from. Already they find themselves 3 points back of a Wild Card spot, the games in hand are gone, and now injuries are starting to rear their ugly head. With Bobby Ryan out for some time with a fractured finger, Mark Borowiecki on the limp and no sign of Marc Methot quite yet. The lack of top end offensive players is becoming more evident, and when one of the supposed "contributors" goes down there isn't much behind him to step in.
The analytics guys and gals can sit back, fold their arms and say "I told you so", because the fact that goaltending has carried the Senators so far this season hasn't been able to continue to cover the deficiencies of the 18 skaters playing in front of them.
Being out-shot by an average of over 6 shots per game was bound to catch up to them no matter what heroics Craig Anderson and Robin Lehner put forth between the pipes. The Senators have been a gong show in their own end, and that was coming directly from the mouth of Bryan Murray last week.
You can throw all the trade scenarios you want out there, and speculate on possible moves, but the fact of the matter is that nobody is going to deal top 6 forwards or top 4 defensemen for the Senators' overpaid spare parts or fringe bottom 6 forwards, no matter how many pieces you try to add in. There isn't going to be a massive deal that changes the landscape of the team, so it is something that fans, as tough as it may be, will have to be patient with.
The fact of the matter is, the kids like Cowen, Ceci, Lazar, Stone, Hoffman, Zibanejad and even Turris are not yet entering their prime. This team is among the youngest (4th youngest according to NHLnumbers.com) and also the lowest paid team. Kids are going to make mistakes and are still learning. If you look at the core of potential top 6 forwards and top 4 defensemen on the roster and in the system right now, only Clarke MacArthur and Bobby Ryan are over the age of 25.
Ownership can profess about "cost per point" and all that jazz, and if that is his determination of success, then so be it. But to expect a team spending upwards of $10- $15M less than most clubs in the league to be completely competitive on a nightly basis is perhaps too optimistic. Fifteen million dollars is essentially two top 6 forwards and a top 4 blueliner. Spending responsibly is important, of course, but in the end you have to spend to be competitive in this league in almost every case.
This is a team that went through a transition period, and perhaps the rebuild happened too quickly. The Senators never really hit "rock bottom" where they could get the top end talent in the draft. The Senators have drafted just 3 players in the top 10 (and none in the top 5) since Jason Spezza in 2001 - Brian Lee, Jared Cowen and Mika Zibanejad. Before that, you have to go back to Chris Phillips (1996) to find another top 10 pick. That is essentially an entire generation of NHL players.
These are reasons, not excuses. With coaching the way it is, there has to be a system that Paul MacLean can implement to at least cut down on chances using the players at his disposal. He has to implement it, and the players to a man need to buy in. It seems too often that certain players have their own agendas and don't necessarily buy in. Does that mean the team has quit on the coach or that the coach has "lost the room"? I don't particularly buy that.
I think the effort is there, but the execution often leaves something to be desired. Is that lack of talent? Perhaps a little. Lack of experience? Definitely a factor. A lack of coaching effectiveness? Another part of the puzzle.
Put all those factors together and you get the Senators of the last couple of years. Good enough to be in the mix but not consistent enough to go on a big run to solidify their standing in the conference. Hanging around the brink of the playoffs but not falling far enough to guarantee a top end player in the draft.
There will be lots of suggestion of "tanking" in order to sink to the point where they can draft Connor McDavid or Jack Eichel, who may be the types of talents that a team can really rebuild around, because with all due respect to the group in the system right now, is there really a forward in that category? No there isn't. By the time December 13th rolls around, that situation might be a lot less theoretical and a heck of a lot more practical.
Frustration, roller coaster rides and uncertainty. Good nights and bad, and not necessarily when and against the team where you would expect it.
I Went in a lot of different directions on this one, just like the Senators as a team this season.
It is an off day, so a chance to vent...it will make you feel better, at least until tomorrow.