The premise started off this morning with a simple tweet:
Discussion if Byfuglien is no more than a 3rd liner and PP D now for Jets is he worth keeping?
— Peter Tessier (@Teddier) March 2, 2014The responses are interesting and you can go look but the idea here is the Jets may have the most expensive 3rd line in the NHL and perhaps ever. Third lines tend to be ever-changing so it makes little sense to go through every team and calculate salary on guesses. However with Setoguchi, Byfuglien and Jokinen the Jets have 12.7 million tied up for a third line.
That's not depth, it's foolish spending and none of it by design really. I guess that's what is troubling when looking at the Jets is there 12.7 million dollars of value there?
Buff turns 29 at the end of March. He will have two more season on his current deal before UFA riches come, or not.
If you believe not then what do you do about that with the trade deadline looming on Wednesday? With Byfuglien moving up to forward he has averaged 1.96 points per 60 minutes of play vs 1.72 for the previous games played at defense. Now don't trust my math but Extra Skater says for the season he is at 1.77/60 mins played so we'll use that average and assume I'm close with my Excel prowess(or lack thereof).
Looking at this team can the Jets get better by dealing Jokinen and Setoguchi and still compete for a playoff spot? Can they do it with any combination of trades from the third line? Obviously the return matters in that answer, so look at the most valuable piece-has Buff's value increased or decreased since the move, first made out of desperation by former coach Claude Noel, up to forward?
That would be a question I'd want an answer for if I'm Chevy because if he's gaining some luster then keeping him at forward for the final 20 games and rest of season may garner you more in a deal in the off-season. It may also allow for opportunity to pass you by.
Here is the list of players who have scored more than 40 points with 10 goals playing less than 72 games over the age of 31 since 2000- it's pretty elite. Does Byfuglien fall into that category of players?
Essentially Byfuglien is an asset that has a huge potential to take a nose dive in offensive production as he ages and he is aging. It's why despite the love for him and the deeper numbers that support his strong possession play have to be a bit overlooked right now. Why? Because he is at a precarious point in his career; he's playing a position he is really not suited for nor with the proper support.
This is not Chicago, the Jets are not a well-rounded team deep in all facets of the game so moving him to a place where he is having less of an impact for the salary paid seems a poor use of the asset. While it's easy to say his +/- is at an even 0 since the move and he is still at -16 on the year you have to look at minutes too. His average ice time per game is down by almost 8 minutes a game since moving to forward. That's a lot of time where he is protected from taking the fall for being the cause of every Jets bad goal.
It can go on and on justifying or criticizing the move of Buff to forward but what seems clear is that something has to give with him and the Jets. At 5.2 million for two more years he's a consistent 40 point bargain on the blue line for any team and that might be before a suitor figures out that he has a likely possibility of decline.
What is probably fair to say whether you want Buff moved at the deadline or not is that the Jets are not getting 5.2 million dollars of value out of him like they used to and that should be a concern. It's one that can be addressed at the trade deadline but I think for Chevy he'll do one of two things, stand pat or move the other two players on that line, if he can.
There's the difference in the scenario- Buff is certain to have suitors but that list gets a lot shorter with Jokinen and Setoguchi. The value of Buff is likely to go down with his production, so if the Jets hold onto him much longer so when do they try and get return on him, by 3pm EST Weds or this off season?
There's another option too, hold onto everything that you are loyal too and stay the course. That tends to be the True North way but with the mid-season firing of Claude Noel perhaps the TNSE brain trust is seeing the flaws in their traditional methods. That's what should make this deadline somewhat intriguing for Jets fans.