"On pace" is fun. Because rarely does something pan out the way it should when you say someone is "On pace for"
Like Milan Lucic being on pace for 30 goals earlier in the season. Nice to think about, but rarely does it come to fruition. Nevertheless, there are some interesting projections with the Kings, and ones you might not wholly believe as unattainable.
Even with the team coming off a bitter tasting loss against the Avalanche, the team is still in an exceptional place in the standings. Individual players are having some great seasons with point and goal paces that are altogether promising. Some of these are real as can be, some are fake. Let's have a little fun using the NHL.com splits and go through these players and try and decipher who has a good chance of meeting, beating, or failing to live up to those projections the best we can.
Anze Kopitar
Currently: 10g, 20a, 30p On pace for: 21g, 42a, 63P
Kopitar is notoriously hot and cold, and right now he is as hot as could be. He has 10 points in his last six games and has looked like an offensive dynamo. This is, however, the same season in which Kopitar opened the year by scoring seven points in the team's first 18 games. For this reason he can be pretty hard to predict in terms of flat out production. You always get the good two-way play, but from a production standpoint it can be pretty hit and miss. 63 points is pretty low, even by Kopitar standards. It would be the lowest point total since his rookie season in the NHL (lockout shortened not counted). What might help Kopitar is that Marian Gaborik has finally gotten going, and Tyler Toffoli has now elevated up to the top line wing position with Carter out of the roster. He was somewhat slumpy to start the year, and you could expect a little more consistency through the second half if his linemates continue to stay warm.
Verdict: Beat it
Tyler Toffoli Currently: 19g, 12a, 31p On Pace for: 39g, 25a, 64p
That's right, Tyler Toffoli is close to being one of the highest goal-scoring single season players since...*Drum roll* Alex Frolov in 2006-07. Ziggy Palffy in 2002-03 is also within breaking range, and if he does indeed reach 39 he will be the highest scoring player since 2000-01 when Palffy had 38.
Alas, we have seen the best of both worlds with Toffoli this season. Before this recent flurry of eight goals in his last ten games, he had two in the previous 19 games. He scores in bunches, or at least has done so so far this season. He scores like a K-wave, and after this hot period you might expect a low period. The other thing to consider here is his high shooting percentage. He is currently shooting at a 17.9%, and is on pace for close to 225 shots. That is beating his career average of 12.4, and last season of 10.0 by quite a bit. For that reason..
Verdict: Fail to meet it
Drew Doughty
Currently: 7g, 17a, 24p On pace for14g, 35a, 49p
What a season for Drew Doughty. There are already rumblings of a Norris trophy coming down, and we are barely at the halfway point on the year. They are not unwarranted. So far he has already met his goal total from last season, seven, and is at half of his total point production from last season. He is shooting at a more reasonable percentage of 7.4, versus a 3.2 from last year's down year.
While the 14 goals seems lofty, he has crested double digits four times in goals. Given the way he is playing, 50 points is probably the ceiling we will see as of right now unless he has an absolute monster hot streak at some point.
Verdict: Meet it
Milan Lucic
Currently: 11g, 12a, 23p On pace for: 23, 25, 48
When you look at his pace and then look at his shooting percentage of 18.3%, it would be easy to say he does not meet it.
However, Lucic has historically been a high percentage shooter. Perhaps it has something to do with the general location of which he shoots from.
Having Carter out has certainly hurt Lucic lately, but he was cold before that. He has one goal in his last 13, and has now also been separated from Tyler Toffoli. The two were the constant threat that Lucic needed to cause havoc in front. His ice time has also started to come down a bit over the last stretch of games, from around 17-19 minutes down to 14-16. If he is going to meet the pace for this season, there will be a lot of work for him in the second half. This meet comes with a pretty big caveat that the line of Toffoli, Carter, and Lucic, can once again re-unite and be productive.
Verdict: Meet it
Dustin Brown
Currently: 4g, 10a, 14p On pace for: 8g, 21a, 29p
Dustin Brown's 3.6% shooting percentage is by far the lowest of his career. He is snake bitten like none other, despite being a player on the Kings who has high scoring chance generation and corsi/fenwick generation. It truly has been an unfortunately unlucky year for Brown when he was in need of a big season. He previously looked to be on a 27 points pace, like the last two seasons, but his latest little surge with linemates Lewis and Dwight King have put Brown back in potential 30 point territory. He will, however, fail to break double digits in goals yet again.
There is something about the way Brown is playing though, and you just have to assume that this horrid year will not last all the way through an 82 game season. For that reason, Brown is a prime candidate for a beating the pace player. 3.6% is much too low of a percentage for the amount that Brown shoots and the amount of scoring chances his line usually generates. Maybe he goes on a run of 6-10 goals over a 20 game span and blows his pace away. There is hope.
Verdict: Beat it
Marian Gaborik
Currently: 8g, 8a, 16p On pace for: 16g, 16a, 32p
Gaborik's season can only be described as sleepy. He is well off what would be expected of him from a goal scoring standpoint. 16 goals would be obscenely low for a player of his caliber, but there has been now flashes of potentially pace beating form. At least not consistently that is. The goal scoring has been sporadic here and there, and the time on ice has been fluctuating as well. Hard to know where Gaborik goes right now, but if anything his current run of form suggest a meeting of the current pace. That would not be strong though.
Verdict: Meet it
Trevor Lewis
Currently: 4g, 5a, 9p On pace for: 9g, 11a, 20p
Lewis had to prove that his 25 point season last year was more than just a fluke. This year, however, he has been again looking like the all Swedish, No Finnish player that LA Kings faithful have come to love and hate. His work ethic is tireless, but rarely do those chances fall for he and his linemate. Between he, Brown, and Shore, it has been infuriating that the trio have not scored more. They probably have deserved so. Nevertheless, he is on pace for 20 points with a couple of recent good performances. The return of Dwight King should also help stabalize Lewis by giving him a potentially productive linemate. If Brown can get going, and King can stay consistent, Lewis may very well be back in at around the 25-30 point range. Brown needs to start firing home the chances created though. Lewis's speed is a helpful asset in generation, and throwing the huge body of King in front may be the missing piece.
Verdict: Beat it
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