Who is driving the Winnipeg Jets?
With the influx of new and younger talent to the Jets forwards corps it’s been hard to understand where the bright spots have been thus far this season. Many line-up shuffles have had good and bad results which mimics the play of the Jets this season. The bigger question becomes who is driving the play and who needs to pick it up.
Only in times of weakness or injury have the Jets deviated from their top line of Ladd Little and Wheeler since it was formed. While much has been said about Ladd and he value Bryan Little brings rarely does anyone talk about Blake Wheeler, until NOW.
Thus it’s no secret that the line is succeeding again for the Jets while taking the tough opposition. Blake Wheeler is leading the Jets in points and near the top of the NHL, while he is accompanied by Ladd and Little. There is one person in between Little and Ladd in points and that is Mathieu Perreault.
Perreault has played in two incarnations of his second line duties as: Perreault Scheifele Ehlers- 189.45 5v5 minutes, and Perreault Scheifele Stafford- 109.83 5v5 minutes.
PSE had a 57.63% Corsi and 56.08% SCF (Scoring Chance For)
PSS had a 57.56% Corsi and a 57% SCF
For reference this is what LLW had: 54.5% Corsi and 48.39% SCF
The shuffle that was made though had Stafford moving up a line and Ehlers moving down.
So when PSE existed the 3rd line was Burmistrov Lowry Stafford or BLS and when PSS was formed the third line was Burmistrov Thorburn and Ehlers or BTE- at least that’s how it breaks down by 5v5 minutes played. There are other variations but these two are the most consistent.
BLS had 50.39% Corsi and 52.8% SCF
BTE had 55.26% Corsi and 51.56% SCF
What can be seen from this is when you look at production after the possession numbers.
PSE had 9 GF and 5 GA while BTW had 1GF and 2 GA
PSS had 5 GF and 3 GA while BLS had 3 GF and 8 GA
It should not come as any surprise that some Jets players are producing more with Mathieu Perreault but what should surprise some is that you can put Perreault anywhere and he makes thing better.
For the 18.56 minutes of 5v5 that Perreault has played with Little and Wheeler the Corsi % is 73.17 and the SCF is 72.73%!! That completely blows away what LLW is doing including goals for per 60 minutes at 3.23 compared to 2.94. The bigger question could be is Scheifele holding back Perreault? Laugh all you want at the 17 points in 28 games, a 49 point pace, there Tessier and I will. The reason is that when Scheifele is away from Perreault his Corsi % plummets- 33.33% and 29.03%. Obviously who is he playing with is your next question.
With Ladd and Wheeler- 33.33% and 50% SCF With Ladd and Ehlers- 29.03% and 33.33% SCF
What I’m trying to get at here is not that Scheifele is not good, or Ehlers needs more time or Stafford is getting too old. Not at all, although those valid points to discuss, it’s that Perreault is the had of God for the Jets and it would be scary to think where they’d be without him.
The other interesting thing about looking at production based on line combos is that the better the line mates Burmistrov had the better the results. Of course that’s a stupid statement but it’s also important too because you need to know what gets the most our of your players.
For instance when Stafford is not with Perreault or Burmistrov it’s uglier for him. But if you are signing Stafford to a 9 million dollar deal you expect production and you should also know that even then you are risking possession. Low and behold he’s better with 2 strong possession players, but more importantly everyone is better with Perreault.
So while the Jets continue to battle in the never-ending bar fight that is the Central Division it’s Mathieu Perreault who is the unsung hero, or at least one that is not noticed enough. He is driving the Jets success and making the second line one that is also under-valued as it relates to the NHL.
While Thorburn may not be the ideal player to ride with Burmistrov and Ehlers for the long term that line, due to the chemistry of Burmi and Ehlers, is finding ways to make an impact. Maybe that suggests that Ehlers, while getting lots of rookie fanfare, is also doing a lot more than meets the eye. It’s funny how a rookie and last year’s third line centre might be the best things happening to the Jets away from the top line production.