Yesterday Ek chimed in on the impending situations with Eric Staal and Cam Ward. As everyone knows, both are in the last year of big contracts and making big $ (Ward=$6.8M; Staal=$9.5M - actual salary not cap hit) before becoming free agents this summer (if they make it that far).
The players are very much hitched in Canes history. Both had breakout years and played key roles in the Canes 2005-06 Stanley Cup winning season. Ward was a rookie who had exactly 0 games of NHL experience entering a season in which he won the Conn Smythe trophy. Eric Staal was not technically a rookie (he played the 2003-04 season with the Canes) but was very much an unproven kid at 20 years old entering the season. And as a few of the veterans from that team dispersed, the duo took the reins as the Canes young leadership and were soon signed to long-term deals to make this a semi-permanent commitment by both the team and the players. Both are suddenly 30ish years old and while not old starting to look over the other side of hill in their NHL careers. And both players have been a core part of the team and its marketing for years and have deservedly grown to become fan favorites at PNC Arena.
But when it gets to their contract situations, I think they are completely different.
Eric Staal even at 30 years old and coming off a bit of a down year is an incredibly rare commodity in the NHL. He is a proven top 6 NHL center cut out of the mold that includes size, skill, scoring, experience and leadership. If Stamkos, Kopitar Giordano never see the open market as I expect, I think you can make a decent case that Eric Staal is the top-rated target next summer for teams who can afford him and also for teams that maybe want to add a new foundation type leader to their team. If the Canes trade Eric Staal, they better get a replacement back because it would be real challenging to backfill his slot with anyone close t his caliber on the open market next summer. So while I am not completely against trading Staal for a big collection of current players and futures that can make the Canes deeper especially at forward quickly, it must be considered against the fact that he is hard to replace even with budget and desire to do so.
Cam Ward's exact situation come next summer is incredibly murky. By adding Eddie Lack this summer, the Canes gained another option who could be capable of being a good NHL starter. In a somewhat similar situation in Vancouver last season, Lack capitalized on the opening when Ryan Miller was injured and never gave the job back and led the Canucks to the playoffs in the process. His acquisition and financial situation really clouds things for the goalie position and Ward in the process. Lack is signed for only this season before becoming an unrestricted free agent. As a 27-year-old who has not yet signed a big NHL contract (he makes only $1.3M in 2015-16), if he claims the starting job with the Canes and follows up a pretty solid 2014-15 campaign with another, he rises in the list of reasonably young goalies who could be a 1A or easily a 1B next season (sort of in the category of Talbot and Lehner this summer but he would actually be deeper in experience). The going rate for that could be as high as $4M and $3M is definitely reasonable. So what does this mean for Ward? Ward will undoubtedly take a significant pay cut whether he re-signs with the Canes or go elsewhere, but exactly how much is a HUGE range right now. If Lack seizes and keeps the Canes starting job and commands a much bigger salary to do it next year, that leaves Cam in a backup role. The price range on that can be $800k-$2M and there are usually okay options available in this price range. If Ward and Lack share the work and it goes well, then Ward becomes half of a 1A/1B duo. The Canes could maybe spend $6Mish on the goalie position, but I think the preference would actually be less. That sets up for Ward making $2-3M. On the other hand if Ward regains his form for 4-5 years ago and leads the team to the playoffs with Lack serving only as a backup just maybe Francis is willing to re-up at a little north of $3M but only for a shorter term deal. So what I just said is that Ward's fair value could be anywhere from $1M to maybe $4M depending on how 2015-16 shakes out. I don't see Francis locking himself into anything before at least seeing Lack in a Canes uniform.
The shrewd bargain hunter says that you can probably get a Cam Ward stats and skill equivalent for less than $2M especially if willing to take a bit of risk. A marketing lead with a penchant for nostalgia suggests that you should consider overpaying slightly to keep Ward in the mix and keep his significant fan base happy.
My wild guess says that Eric Staal gets sorted out this summer. Sorting out could actually be that Francis decides to part ways with him, but it might take much longer (even trade deadline) to put that plan into action with the challenge of his contract in today's salary cap-constrained NHL. My speculation is that unless Ward's camp is willing to take a salary that borderline works if he falls to backup that nothing happens with Ward until at least the midway point of the season when there is more data on both Ward and Lack's play and roles in 2015-16.
What say you Canes fans?
Should we start a signing date poll for Eric Staal, or do you think he gets traded?
Does anyone think Ward's stature in the organization preempts some of the murky math I detailed above and gets him signed sooner?
What are people's predictions for how the Ward/Lack situation sorts out this season?
Twitter=@CanesandCoffee
Matt Karash is a long-time passionate Hurricanes hockey fan, season ticket holder and also the founder of Canes and Coffee web site.
Go Canes!