Let’s play Coach Therrien for a minute. We are going to assume that Max Pacioretty arrives ready to play opening night. Here’s a quick look at what his line-up card may read on October 7th in Toronto:
Pacioretty/Plekanec/Gallagher Galchenyuk/Desharnais/Semin De la Rose/Eller/Kassian Bournival/Mitchell/Weise
Markov/Subban Emelin/Petry Beaulieu/Gilbert
Price
Spares: Smith-Pelly, Tinordi, Pateryn, Tokarski
I see the Habs D as a top 3 and a bottom 3. PK Subban, Andrei Markov and Jeff Petry are going to log the heaviest minutes. They will face the stiffest competition and eat up the majority of the special teams work, particularly on the PP. Nathan Beaulieu, Tom Gilbert and Alexi Emelin will have their ice time tailored to fit the situation. All are capable of logging 20 minutes on any given night. The reality is the Habs depth on the backend will allow these players to probably log 15-18 minutes a night depending on the match up and who has the hot hand. Gilbert has the versatility to play either side. He makes a great first pass but can wilt physically under pressure (although, he was very solid against Tampa in the playoffs). Emelin provides a physical edge but is unable to consistently make plays with puck. Beaulieu is the most gifted, the youngest and the player faced with the toughest task, winning Coach Therrien’s trust.
On the outside looking in are Greg Pateryn and Jarred Tinordi. Pateryn made a name for himself in the playoffs last year. He most likely will need a trade to move into the line up. He brings size and some menace on the back end, something Montreal has lacked. Tinordi is down to his last chance. He will stick with the big club most likely due to the fact that he must clear waivers if sent to the AHL. He will need a truly excellent camp or a trade to become a regular. Habs GM Marc Bergevin brought Mark Barberio into the mix this off-season. He will push Tinordi and Pateryn during camp and is the most likely to be exposed to waivers should the three players produce a similar camp.
The Habs have 9 defensemen with legitimate NHL experience. They will most likely carry 8 to start the season. We will find out if this training camp is going to be a true meritocracy or if veterans with experience under Therrien’s system will continue to block the path of younger talents.
Up front, Bergevin bolstered a previously thin group on right wing. Brendan Gallagher, the Habs best forward in their playoff run, has first line duties locked down. His role should expand slightly this season and the 30 goal mark is not out of the question should he stay healthy. Zack Kassian and Alex Semin will provide size, skill and tantalizing potential. The Habs will have scored a major victory should they succeed in Montreal. If they cannot find their games, they are low budget gambles and will aid in buying young prospects like Mike McCarron and Nikita Sherbak a season in the pros to develop.
Dale Weise and Devante Smith Pelly will create a competition on the right side which will allow players to be mixed and matched on the 2nd to 4th lines depending again on who is playing well and the opponent that night. It is a nice problem to have, too many wingers, but I don’t think anyone believes we will see Semin’s best work on the 4th line. It will be interesting to see how Therrien deploys his forwards to say the least.
On the left side, I see Galchenyuk staring on the wing. The main reason is the Habs lack skill on the left side. Bournival , De la Rose and Charles Hudon will be battling it out for 2 spots on the left side on the bottom six. Bournival fits in nicely on the 4th line and is no longer able to be sent to the AHL without another team stealing him. He struggled through injury in ’14-15 and will need to re-establish his game before he is passed by younger prospects.
De la Rose drew comparisons to a young Jordan Staal from his coach last season. He has size and speed and brings a physical component to his game. Coming off surgery, he may be the player to go to the AHL should the Habs not want to expose Bournival to waivers. Hudon would have to have a great camp, well within his wheelhouse, to steal that top 9 role. If Hudon can one day establish himself as a bonafide top 6 forward that could open the door to Galchenyuk’s move to the middle. The Habs have a gaping hole in their top 2 on the left side if Galchenyuk is playing centre. It makes the most sense for him to continue to provide scoring from the wing until another player proves capable of filling that role.
This Habs squad has some nice depth. There will be internal competition for spots and a group of young players trying to push their way onto the team. Tinordi and Bournival are down to potentially their last chance to stick in Montreal. McCarron, Sherbak, Andreghetto and Hudon are trying to knock the door down and play their way into the show. Semin and kassian come into town with lots of talent and lots of question marks. Galchenyuk enters the "prove it" stage of his career.
This is shaping up to be an exciting fall in Montreal.
10 thoughts:
1) Can Kassian and Semin fit in and produce in Montreal? 2) Will jarred Tinordi finally get his chance to play regular NHL minutes? Will that chance be in Montreal? 3) Can Bournival find his game and his Coach’s confidence? Or have the arrival of De la Rose and the scoring ability of Hudon marked him for the AHL? 4) What will Mark Barberio bring to the mix? The Habs right side n D is crowded. He faces a tough battle to claim a spot. 5) Will Semin play on the right or left wing? If Pacioretty isn’t ready for opening night and/or Galchenyuk forces his way into the middle will Semin be able to fill the hole at LW? 6) If Kassian and Semin succeed does that mean Smith-Pelly and Weise will rotate into the line up? Smith-Pelly struggled last season upon arriving in Montreal. He has a big camp to prove he can be a NHL regular. 7) What is the over/under for Habs goals this season? They scored 214 goals last season. Let’s push the bar to 228. I’ve got the over. 8) The rumblings seem to suggest Pacioretty will be the next captain. Will he be wearing the “C… on opening night in Toronto? 9) Price was not as strong at the end of the season last year. Perhaps it is impossible to play lights out for 82 games plus playoffs. That being said, he has been injured to finish the season the last 4 Canadiens’ campaigns. Can the Habs keep Price fresh and healthy and start him around 60 games and remain competitive? Tokarski will have a big say in that equation. 10) Where will this team finish in the East? I have them battling for 1st place in their division and safely in the top 4 n the East.