Sorry for the really long layoff writing. I have been steady as ever watching the team game by game and mostly rooting for wins with some awkward feeling of "maybe this is better in the long run" when they don't.
Even with the Canes playing pretty good hockey in January and February, they still sit way back in the playoff chase, and at last check 1 of the mathematical "chance to make it" sites pegged them at 0.1%. January and February's productivity with Jordan Staal in the lineup and the team generally healthy suggests that maybe this team is not that far away. I go back and forth on that one. Over the course of an 82-game season, pretty much any team can find a stretch where they won at a playoff type pace. But I equate that to taking your best stretch of 3 holes in golf and trying to project that forward to how you will shoot over 18 holes next time you play.
When I net it out, it's 2 things:
1) I do not think this team is completely at the "blow it up and start over" level. Much of that is because the gap between the playoff cut and not in the NHL is really pretty small.
2) But this team does need to get better.
But February is not so much about getting better; that is for the summer. Ironically, February is sometimes more about getting worse. Buffalo has staked a huge claim to drafting in the top 2 by trading 3 pretty good players for a combination of futures and injured players. Today Toronto collected some futures and made a step toward pushing for a further fall down the standings by trading 2 NHLers for futures. In the process, a couple of the teams on the buyer list heading into the trade deadline filled most if not all of their shopping list. Ron Francis is still holding some potentially valuable assets both in terms of the trade deadline but also potentially in terms of doing next summer's work early. IF Francis goes the retool route (which seems most likely) not the blow it up route, he has some holes to fill by next fall. It is not as if Raleigh is going to be a preferred destination for free agents this summer or as if he is going to have a huge budget to overbid to make up for this reality. So there is merit to re-signing/keeping some of the impending UFAs. But the is now to figure out if that is possible at the right term and price or otherwise move forward quickly.
Here is where I stand:
1) Andrej Sekera. If he is willing to stay, I think he is a definite keep under a retooling program. Even with him, I think the Canes are short 1 if not 2 top 4 D. And the market for those is always thin. And with Fleury likely a couple years off, I just do not see how else the team will adequately fill this spot if Sekera leaves.
2) Jiri Tlusty. I think Tlusty is an okay 2-way top 6 for about his current price ($2.9M). I would not be completely averse to keeping him, but I lean toward trading him and collecting futures. With reasonable proven scoring ability and 2-way play, he should yield a decent return, and for me the free agent market realities say that it is much much easier to fill out the forward ranks during the summer than the top 4 of the blue line.
3) Jay McClement, Patrick Dwyer, Tim Gleason. All 3 of these players are playing well in their current role, but if you catch a decent bid from a team that needs defensive depth or bottom 6+ PK help, you take the immediate return and trust that you can backfill these roles next summer.
Sadly, there is an advantage for Francis figuring this out sooner rather than later. Buffalo moved aggressively to collect futures and at the same time tank for this year. Toronto did the same. IF Francis cannot/chooses not to keep some of the rentals, there is an incentive to trade them a couple weeks early to save a few $ and tamp down any big rises in the standings.
4) Not of the rental player trades, I am still of the mind that I would trade Jeff Skinner if I can get a comparable return in the form of a similar age top 4ish defenseman plus. He just keeps getting deeper into his career as a dynamic offensive player who is not well-rounded enough to be a true top 6 on a good team in my opinion. Plus like I said previously, defensemen are just scarcer right now. What about something like Gudbranson, Pirri + for Skinner plus 1 of #3 rentals. Florida gets an offensive boost and additional rental help for a playoff push. The Canes get a potential top 4 D in Gudbranson, a Skinner-lite replacement in Pirri and futures. And not because he is playing poorly (quite the opposite actually), if someone wants/needs Ward, I am still of the mind to trade him. This one is purely financial. The Canes have gaps and issues with depth. It takes $ to fix that. If the Canes traded Ward (and did not eat a huge chunk of the salary), they could add an inexpensive 1B to go with Khudobin and free up money to fix bigger holes. Sure there is some risk in this, but I just don't see how else the Canes will find enough $ to make a key acquisition or 2 this summer.
Twitter=@CarolinaMatt63
Go Canes!