Training camp is finally here and we can start to see how all the new pieces GM Jim Rutherford acquired will fit together.
Pittsburgh opens the preseason up in just three days when they take on the Blue Jackets in Columbus.
Before I get into what I will be watching for in this training camp I think I have to preface a couple of things. Training camp is very useful but I do think there are some hurdles to overcome as it pertains to evaluating the talent on the ice. The first is recency bias. When you watch a player the things that they do most recently stick with you. Just think about any fantasy league you have ever played in. Remember Kevin Ogletree's eight catch 114 yard two touchdown performance in Dallas' opening game in 2012? Perhaps not, but every league around the country picked him off the waiver wire for the next week. That game accounted for 25% of his yards and 50% of his touchdowns that season. In the three years of games since that great game he has only accumulated 641 yards and four touchdowns. Just be weary of this concept if a player is on fire or is really cold to start training camp.
Training camp is a small sample size. A lot of these players have a much larger sample size to draw information from. Rarely does a player magically change and improve their abilities immensely. Aside from the aging process player usage is usually the driving force behind a player's success or failure. Blake Comeau is a recent example of a player not necessarily becoming a better player but being put in a very good situation (Malkin's wing). Beau Bennett is a candidate for the opposite to happen. He should have better linemates in 2015-16 regardless of what line he is on and he will look better because of it. Both Comeau and Bennett haven't changed drastically as players but their output on both the possession and offensive front will be impacted by the change in usage (assuming Comeau is not a top six player in Colorado).
So with all that said here are some of the things that I will be watching for in training camp:
Sergei Plotnikov
Most of us have seen him play but we never really were paying attention. Sergei Plotnikov has played on the Russian National team at the World Championships the past two years but for most people (including myself) there was never much attention put on him as a player. He was just another unknown KHL player.
Now that training camp has arrived we can all start to see how he is going to fit in the NHL and how he will be used on the Pittsburgh Penguins. Can he be Evgeni Malkin's left wing? If not where does he fit into the bottom six? Things will become more clear as the intensity ramps up and the Penguins get some game action against other opponents. Is his skating fast enough? Some players have difficulty making the switch from the big Olympic ice surface to the smaller NHL sized one but Plotnikov's skill set is that of physicality so it might not be that difficult of a switch for him.
My guess is that he will be an effective bottom six winger for the Penguins.
Which one of the AHL forwards will earn an NHL spot?
Here is the depth chart with Eric Fehr healthy:
Kunitz-Crosby-Kessel Perron-Malkin-Hornqvist Dupuis-Bonino-Fehr Plotnikov-Cullen-Bennett
Eric Fehr is not healthy and is still about a month away from shooting the puck. Candidates for promotion include Conor Sheary, Scott Wilson, Bryan Rust and Bobby Farnham.
My frontrunners for the promotion are Conor Sheary and Scott Wilson. Conor Sheary was WB/S' leading scorer last year and actually has some ability with the puck on his stick. Think of Sheary as a Brian Gibbons type with skill. He is very fast and is not shy in his puck battles.
Scott Wilson received a glimpse of NHL time last season but in an unfortunate twist he was injured in his first ever NHL game. Pittsburgh thought enough of him to give him a promotion, but the forward depth is a lot better than it was last year. His NHL promotion is going to be more difficult in 2015-16.
Bobby Farnham is a sideshow which should play nice for the minor league hockey crowd.
Sergei Gonchar
What does he have left in his skating stride? I don't doubt his hockey acumen or his puck skills but if you can't move you can't play. I also would never doubt that having him around the team as anything other than a positive. However, there are coaching roles for something like that if the on-ice product isn't up to a satisfactory level.
Truth be told I would rather have Gonchar on the team than Scuderi. It isn't an either or situation though. Rob Scuderi will be part of the active roster. Both players are considered specialists at this point in time (Gonchar PP, Scuderi PK). I know Rob Scuderi's CA/60 on the penalty kill is very bad but I'm not sure Gonchar's power play numbers are heading in the right direction either.
The ability to create shot volume correlates with the ability to score goals. Gonchar's production is falling in the power play department.
I don't doubt Sergei Gonchar's ability on the power play when the team is completely set up in the offensive zone. I have my reservations about the team's ability to gain a controlled entry with the slower Gonchar on the ice. While I have never been in love with Letang's ability quarterbacking the power play it is undeniable his impact on controlled zone entries and allowing the Penguins the opportunity to get set up on the power play.
I would give Gonchar big minutes in the preseason to see if the body can handle it.
Chris Kunitz
Chris Kunitz was still a very good possession player on the Penguins last year (actually had the best numbers). However, Chris Kunitz's role was not that of a bottom six player. Bottom six players who have great possession numbers is OK even when the offensive production isn't great, but when you play with Sidney Crosby and/or Evgeni Malkin there needs to be some tangible offense. I personally believe we will see more offensive results from Kunitz this season.
Last but not least:
Phil Kessel
It is nice to see Phil Kessel with a smile on his face after his Toronto tenure ended amidst character shots thrown his way. For the first time in a long time he won't be the best player on his line and that is going to be a tremendous thing for him.
Something to keep in mind with elite goal scorers is that they all go through slumps where the puck just doesn't go in. Pay attention to the shot volume and/or Corsi For per 60 to see if the player has really fallen off. The variance involved with save percentages and shooting percentages are a main culprit for unjust criticism around the league. Trust the process and the results will eventually come around. Something to think about when Kessel hasn't scored in eight games (it is going to happen).
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