Follow @james_tanner123 Not counting Mike Smith, who's lifetime deal with the club runs until 2045, the Coyotes have only ten player under contract for next season, although that total doesn't include rookies on ECLs likely to join the team in October, such as Max Domi or Anthony Duclair. What this means is that the roster is going to have a lot of turnover between now and the start of the next season.
Of those ten contracts, only seven are for forwards, which is the position we'll be looking at today.
The following is an attempt to discern who'll be here and who won't be.
Shane Doan
Doan has one year left on his deal, and he'll certainly be back. Doan was about an even possession player last season at 49.6CF% but, keep in mind that while the Coyotes were 22nd in the NHL with a team rating of 48.6 and the league tends to have a range of 46-52 (excepting the very worst and best) if you want to give that any context.
Still, an even possession player who put up 25 ES points on a low-scoring team who also happens to mean what Doan does to this team is a good proposition, even at 38. Watching him play, you'd never think he was so old, and hopefully he can sign one more deal and be here when the team starts to have success again.
Sam Gagner
Gagner began his Coyotes career by going scoreless in his first six games and then put up only nine points in his first 24 games over two months. However, from then on, he was pretty good, posting 32 points in his final 57 games and ending up second on the team for ice time among forwards at even-strength.
Gagner posted 27 ES points and 41 overall - when you consider his most common linemates were Tobias Rieder and Martin Erat, his numbers look even better. His 52.02CF% was fantastic and second on the team. (Although those possession numbers take a hit when he is not on the ice with the defensively excellent Martin Erat).
Overall, Gagner should be back in a bigger role and be more comfortable next season. He's a versatile, underrated player and a massive bargain at a $3.2 million cap-hit.
Martin Hanzal
Out with back surgery for most of the last half of the year, Hanzal will look to put his injury history behind him next season. Hopefully he can, because he's a monster when he is actually on the ice. His 17 points in 37 games (ES) and nearly 53% Corsi rating show what he can do when healthy.
How good is 17 ES points in 37 games? Crosby had 22 in his first 37 this year. Backstrom and Malkin had 20. Thornton and Tavares had 18.
So Hanzal is pretty good when he plays. Underrated, sure, and massively so, but if he's healthy, the Coyotes are an exponentially better team.
Two more seasons for Hanzal at $3.1 - a steal if he's healthy.
Lauri Korpikoski
Korpikoski put up a brutal 43% Corsi rating, 11 ES points. He was terrible and I can't imagine a scenario where he returns to the team. I imagine that with the low cap-hit and speed, that some team will take a chance on him.
That being said, he is one of seven forwards with a contract for next year and depending on how fast/many young players the team wants to promote, he could be back. He shouldn't be, but I've seen stranger things.
Joe Vitale
Signed to be a fourth-line centre who plays good defense, Vitale was a disappointment. Hopefully by signing John Chayka - an analytics and statistical expert, who co-founded the successful data company Stathletes - as the team's new assistant GM, the Coyotes will move away from the typical "top-six/bottom-six" setup and utilize the whole roster in a more sensible way - by which I mean less specialization, and a better focus on talent, skating and puck possession.
Sure, Vitale is a decent penalty-killer, but is anyone really that effective at killing penalties? Better, in my opinion, to use a player you can trust to play higher in the lineup if you have to, and who will give you offense at ES, which the vast majority of the game is played at.
You don't need "defensive specialists" like Vitale. You need players who can play a well-rounded game, bring some offense and skate. While under contract for two more years, Vitale is the type of player the NHL is moving away from and hopefully he won't be back.
Kyle Chipchura
Chipchura is extremely effective in a limited role. Playing the agitator, defensive forward, fourth-line/role player roll perfectly.
What makes him effective in this role is that if you ever have to move him up the lineup, he performs. I think Chipchura might actually be surprisingly effective if given more ice-time and a bigger role. In my opinion, one of the league's great unsung players.
He is a massive bargain at an 875K cap-hit and they should extend him.
Tobias Reider
He's talented, he's 22, but he only scored 21 points in 72 games, so that's not exactly great. Still, he's a decent third-line talent who won't look out of place moving up occasionally and his possession game was about even.
Overall, there's room for growth here and considering he's under contract for another year, he'll probably get another chance to try and break out - which he'll have to do to avoid being pushed out by all the talent coming through the system soon.
Mikkel Boedker
He's 25, he's got all the talent in the world, and will likely be re-signed this summer despite never really putting it all together and having a season worthy of said talent.
It will be interesting to see whether the Coyotes bet on him long-term and try to get some value out of his deal at the cost of some risk, or whether they go "bridge" deal and see what happens in the next one or two seasons.
Either way, he's nearly certain to be back since I don't think anyone will pay in trade what he could potentially mean for the Coyotes, and they've spent this long on him...
The Rest:
Martin Erat: Elite defender, but almost no offense, despite a solid possession game. Still, could be worth bringing back at a discount.
Craig Cunningham: Maybe back...pathetic possession numbers clearly a concern, but some upside.
Crombeen, Moss, Arcobello, McGuin: Almost certain to be gone. Arcobello was effective, but you'd think the team would rather give time to their prospects.
Potential Rookies:
The Coyotes have seven forwards under contract for next year. Of those seven players, Doan, Hanzal, Gagner, Rieder and Chipchura are sure to be back. We can also put Boedker in that category making six players - assuming both Vitale and korpiskoski are gone.
That's only half the forwards a team needs.
Maybe you get an Arcobello or an Erat, but there's still five or so spots up for grabs. Now, obviously there will be trades and signings, but there's still going to be some openings for young players to grab in training camp.
Max Domi, Anthony Duclair, Ryan MacInnis, Brendon Perlini, Christian Dvorak, Lucas Lessio and Maxim Letunov are just a few of the guys who could challenge for roster spots next seasons.
Also, there is Brendan Shinnimin and Jordan Martinhook, if they re-sign.
In the end, it's clear that this will be a season a massive turnover in the Coyotes organization, and though we can sit here pre-draft and make some sensible projections, really, anything can happen between now and October.
Thanks for reading