As we get closer to the beginning of the 2016-17 season beginning we are going to start seeing some of the potential roster battles play out. Most of the roster spots are set in stone with established veterans with only a few spots left to be grabbed.
One of the places we will see a roster battle will be for the final two top six winger positions. With Daniel Sprong out of the mix and nobody new from the outside being added at this time that leaves candidates like Bryan Rust, Conor Sheary, and Scott Wilson to battle it out.
There is a lot to sort through given that the sample sizes aren't huge, the roles/usage at times changed for certain players (Rust), and injuries took place (Wilson).
Recently there has been some micro-stat data coming out from the NHL playoffs. This kind of thing is done manually and takes time hence the delay in the release of the information. The latest bit of information that I found was from Tempo Hockey and dealt with Bryan Rust and Conor Sheary.
Aggregated data from TB and SJ series at 5v5: pic.twitter.com/4Xo6OrDYn9
— tempofreehockey (@TempoFreeHockey) August 31, 2016
Sheary may lead in the majority of the categories but in most of those the gap isn't too large. The one place that I would focus on would be dump in percentage and the success/failure rates of when they do so. Sheary is better in that department and we know that there is a positive correlation between controlled carry ins and productive offense.
That isn't to say that Rust doesn't do things well because when he does get into the offensive zone his passing accuracy wasn't too bad
In the SJ series when targeting the Offensive Zone at 5v5
— tempofreehockey (@TempoFreeHockey) August 31, 2016
Passing Accuracy:
Rust 73.5% (25/34)
Sheary 63.2% (36/57)
Sheary had a lower percentage but he had more opportunities which is a sign of better generation. Sheary played in one less game during the Tampa Bay/San Jose sample due to being scratched. That may or may not have been linked to the knee he took from Tom Wilson in the Washington series.
Cup Finals Per Possession Analysis
— tempofreehockey (@TempoFreeHockey) September 1, 2016
Shot Attempt Assist Per Possession:
Sheary 7.89 Shot Att Ast/Poss
Rust 7.41 Shot Att Ast/Poss
Pretty close on this front between the two players.
So those are some interesting micro-stats from the final two rounds of the NHL playoffs. Unfortunately, we do not have those same figures for the regular season because of the nature of the data collection (tedious).
Here are some 5v5 figures to work with from the regular season
Interesting to note here is that Sheary, Rust, and Wilson were the three best forwards on the team during the regular season at CA/60. So in their not so large samples they were not bleeding shots and that is always a plus.
Sheary had the Quality of Teammate edge over Rust during this sample as he got to play with Sid and Hornqvist for ~68 minutes of the 389 minutes he played. Rust only played 6 minutes with his eventual playoff center Evgeni Malkin.
The playoff stats for both players are as follows:
Rust saw a nice boost in his CF/60 while his CA/60 stayed relatively the same. His points per 60 skyrocketed playing with Malkin.
Sheary's CF/60 led all Penguins forwards during the playoffs while his CA/60 was not nearly as good as his regular season numbers were. He too saw a nice leap in his points per 60 when compared to the regular season although not quite the leap Rust had.
Given the success that both Sheary and Rust saw in their elevated roles in the playoffs Scott Wilson is going to need a whale of a training camp to supplant them. It isn't out of the question as Wilson showed a glimpse of some goal scoring ability before he was injured. His first 12 games of the year saw him score zero goals while the 12 games after that saw him net 5. That is a 34 goal pace on an 82 game season and while probably not realistic to sustain it definitely shows there is some ability to be farmed.
The way I interpret this information is the following:
Conor Sheary
Less variance in his numbers from regular season to the playoffs. Some things did get better like CF/60 and 5v5 points per 60 but he had very respectable numbers before his elevated role. The micro-stats from the TB/SJ series were encouraging and showed his propensity to value controlled possession. It isn't out of the question for him to find himself in-between his regular season and playoff numbers which would make for a very useful player at a very nice bargain price.
Bryan Rust
His role change drastically altered his ability to generate offense at even-strength. There was a wild swing from regular season to playoffs. The big variance lends itself to more skepticism of sustainability, but doesn't eliminate the possibility of it. That's the problem with such a small sample in that elevated role. Given the fact that the Penguins will likely keep HBK together that puts Rust in a good spot to take the other top nine winger gig considering there really aren't any other right wing options. Him being a right winger is a leg up in this battle.
Scott Wilson
He is the wild card. His sample is the smallest of the three, but he has yet to get his look with a Crosby or Malkin. Out of the three players he has shown the most goal scoring prowess in the AHL
Like Sheary he is a left winger and that hurts because there seems to be one left wing and one right wing slot open. If Conor Sheary shows well in camp it will be tough to leapfrog him. If Wilson shows well in camp that may have more of a negative ramification on Tom Kuhnhackl.
The good news with all of this is that no matter how it shakes out the Penguins have players in the organization that cost a minimal amount of money who have shown various signs of NHL success. A far cry from just a few years ago.
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The Philadelphia Flyers went dumpster diving to create their new 50th anniversary jerseys.
See the 50th Anniversary jersey from every angle 👀 → https://t.co/YFLdSwHvh7 pic.twitter.com/SZqWrafi5n
— Philadelphia Flyers (@NHLFlyers) August 31, 2016
After Pittsburgh finally said goodbye to the tired and stale gold color scheme they were using their number one rival from across the state felt the need to pick it out of the garbage.
Thanks for reading!