The “script… goes like this.
A young, talented team rises out of mediocrity, dominates for a handful of years then slowly entropies back to, first, the rest of the pack, then second, perhaps mediocrity.
Outside the Hawk fanbase, the conventional wisdom is: “Chicago’s had their turn. They’ll now go on the slow slide that Detroit did after their dominant years.…
Inside the Hawk fanbase, the picture is more muddled.
There are those who take a perhaps more mature, grateful stance. “Hey, it’s been a great run. What’s to complain about?… These fans, it seems, either overestimate how good the hawk team is as assembled (it’s not a Stanley Cup team at present, folks) or would be happy with three Cups and a yearly playoff appearance for the next 3-4 seasons before a total rebuild.
The problem with that is no one’s really complaining.
Where the friction happens is there’s another segment of the fanbase that doesn’t want to the roll to end—and doesn’t think it has to. Maybe that sounds like complaining, but it isn't. It's daring to think outside the box.
The other point of difference is the former group doesn’t seem to want to think about what it would take to retool right now, while the latter is almost obsessed with the downside of not retooling.
What does “retool… mean? For the Hawks, it means defying the conventional wisdom and making a bold move or two that might raise some eyebrows and send a fan favorite or two elsewhere.
Because here’s the other issue with the former group: they tend to overrate the value of current Hawk players and prospects across the board while underrating those of other teams. So any possible trade seems bad and scary
Driving around the Northwest suburbs this past weekend, I kept seeing people walking around in Hawk t-shirts and jerseys emblazoned with the names and numbers of various players—some of whom, should the Hawks decide to upset the inertia and possibly defy the conventional wisdom—could be traded this summer.
Because here’s the hard reality that every Hawk fan needs to face. Every time they hand out a big money, long-term deal to yet another current player in a stagnant or low-growth cap environment, the team gets worse.
That’s right, worse. And the hole they have to get out of, to regain a legit shot at a Cup, gets deeper.
It’s simple math and business economics.
If you spend more to retain talent—under a stagnant salary cap—you leave yourself less money to acquire talent and fill out the remainder of your roster.
Please don’t default now to the draft or prospects. The Hawks have picked late in every round for several years and—and it shows— the dearth of quality prospects in their system is the very real result. We can also go through the long list of high picks who are no longer with the team—either dealt for trade deadline tweaks or just not very good hockey players in the end.
Doesn’t matter.
Nick Schmaltz might end up a nice player but he is not the salvation of the franchise or anything close to it. Nor is Teuvo Teravainen,
The above is why, with the impending new contract for Artemi Panarin, and minimal if any cap growth, the Hawks are faced with a choice. Scrimp and save and find a way to re-up Panarin—and fill out the rest of the roster with Rob Scuderis and Ryan Hartmans.
Or make a bold, yet surgical move or two that clears some cap space, and also brings some fresh, young talent (not 170 pound defensemen from Sweden or bottom six forwards from Rockford) to town.
The first choice almost certainly means zero improvement on a team that got bounced out of the first round of the playoffs—a team with too many holes and weaknesses, especially 5-on-5—to realistically make a deep Cup run.
The second choice is scary because it’s uncertain. Again, a lot of Hawk fans tend to overvalue their “stars… or would be stars, while undervaluing the assets of other teams.
But the harsh reality is the Hawks’ slide has already begun—unless the team gets creative and figures out which players in their highly paid (and growing) core can be parted with, and somewhat replaced, while freeing up dollars and gaining younger assets with legitimate upside.
Easy? No.
Impossible? No.
And yes, there are whispers out there, growing louder of late, that the Hawks are exploring these possibilities. Exploration is far, however, from completion.
Might be an interesting summer.
JJ