Follow @james_tanner123 Over the last few days, I've been going through the Coyotes roster with an eye towards advanced stats in order to figure out who should stay through the rebuild and be part of the team going forward, and who should not.
I began with the defense and (of course) two of my favorite Coyotes Ekman-Larsson and Michael stone. Part One Here.
The second part, which covered Nick Grossman and Connor Murphy can be read Here .
Today we'll look at the rest of the defense.
Zbynek Michalek
Michalek, who was traded to St.Louis at the deadline and then signed again in the off-season, is going to turn 33 this season. He has long been a steady presence on the Coyotes blue-line and is almost always an effective player.
As good as he was, he's aging and declining and the Coyotes probably shouldn't have brought him back. I fear that they'll be too tempted to re-partner him with OEL to the detriment of Michael Stone.
If they instead choose to use him properly as a third-pairing player - and if he doesn't take too much ice from Murphy/Gormley, then I'm glad to have him back. As you can see from the chart above, for the last three years he has been an excellent possession player, even if his game is devoid of offense.
Interestingly, if you look at various three-year chunks of his career, it seems that as he has aged he has improved his possession stats and become the rare defensive defensemen who isn't a drain on his team's possession. I don't know if that trend can continue as he keeps aging, but honestly, as long as he isn't deployed on the top line anymore, I think he's a great pick up for a 5/6 defenseman and my only qualm with bringing him back is that I think Tippett will rely on him too much.
Klas Dahlbeck
Picked up for Vermette at the deadline, Dahlbeck is 6'2, 200lbs and 24. He played pretty good upon being acquired and while he won't rack up the points, he can move the puck efficiently.
That being said, he has only played 25 games and most of those were on a last place team with terrible possession numbers. At this point, Dahlbeck can't be considered much more than a lottery ticket and he's in tough for ice time if the team decides it has to dress Nick Grossman.
The Coyotes have three for-sure players under 25 who'll be dressing every night (OEL, Stone, Murphy) and Gormley, if he can have a good camp, makes four. I would dress Dahlbeck on the third pairing, ahead of both remaining veterans, but who knows what coach Tippett will do?
Brandon Gormley
While some of the shine seems to be off the former first rounder, Gormley still possesses the talent to be a star in the NHL. He is younger and has far better AHL totals than Dahlbeck, and I expect him to rebound this year.
Last year, after his injury, he wasn't very good and coupled with having to break into a team already employing three under 25 offensive defensemen, he's been in tough. That being said, with size and skill-set, you don't give up on him unless you absolutely have to.
One thing to like about Gormley despite only putting up 4 points in 32 career games: he's been close to being a positive possession player even though he's played on the Coyotes who are and have been terrible at possession the puck during the time he's been here.
Conclusion
After going through the size, talents, scouting reports and numbers of the entire Coyotes defense, I have to say I am re-energized about the talent they have back there.
Obviously OEL is a super-star, but Stone appears to have a very good shot at establishing himself as a first-pairing NHL defenseman, Gormley deserves another couple of chances and Murphy - who's huge and shoots right - is also on the right track.
With four potentially excellent young defensemen - and a cadre of young forwards good enough to make the Oilers jealous - the Coyotes are on what seems like a very smooth path to success.
My only concern entering this season is if they will continue to let the three of them develop properly without giving their minutes away to overrated veterans.
And I can't stress this enough: Keep Grossman away from Connor Murphy.
The pairings I'd like to see are: OEL-Stone / Gormley - Murphy / Dahlbeck-Michalek with Grossman anchored to his seat in the pressbox.
I'll break down the forwards as we move through the week.
Thanks for reading.
Stats: waronice.com, Stats.hockeyanalysis.com and ownthepuck.blogspot.ca