In figuring out how to identify and fill a couple gaps that push the Canes back into the playoffs, I think the recent surge of a few Canes young players is very telling.
--Andrej Nestrasil has obviously been playing well of late including a 3-point night in the Canes win last night. As soon as someone like him starts surging, the talk immediately escalates to where he might fit in the top 6. While it is possible that a player finds another gear and vaults up the depth chart legitimately, I think contrasting his Canes' situation (he's hot; boost him up) with the Wings' situation that he left is interesting. On a deep perennial playoff Red Wings team, Nestasil was quality depth. Even if he had stuck with the Wings, it would have been in a 3rd/4th-line role.
--Jeff Skinner/Victor Rask/Elias Lindholm. They just finished a run where they played very well. Skinner finally broke out on the score sheet at the tail end of it, but you could see the surge a few games prior. But all 3 players have been prone to small bursts of greatness mixed around stretches of near invisibility or worse with Skinner who still has too many plays where his struggles rounding out the defensive part of his game find their way into the spotlight.
On a good team, I think this entire set of good young players who are still working to round out their games and find consistency makes for a real good 3rd line and a nice set of options to fill injury holes and/or push someone up when they are hot or the top lines need a spark. I would put Nathan Gerbe in a similar category of being great depth, energy and spark but not an 18 minutes, every night top 6.
When I slot the Canes forwards in trying to compare them to the deep teams that are at the top of the standings these days, I think it's like this:
1st line: EStaal/JStaal/Tlusty is fine. We can debate where they would rate across 30 teams, but I think they are good enough to line up and compete in that slot. And it's not like we are going to find money to add another $6M true top-liner this summer.
2nd line: _____/______/Semin. IF he can find a level of play closer to his ceiling he is top 6 capable. But that's it. It's not uncommon to see balanced teams have a complementary player who might be a big overslotted on a 1st or even 2nd line to balance things out. So I think it's possible to be competitive with 1 player boosted up, but I feel like the Canes need 1 more true top 6 forward. Ideal would be a center who could complement and help jumpstart Semin.
If you could somehow fill the 2 blanks with legitimate players, the Canes are suddenly pretty deep at forward.
3rd line: Skinner/Rask/Nash/Lindholm/Nestrasil/Gerbe provides 6 options to build a good 3rd line and leaves 1 to slot up to the 2nd line.
4th line: Malone/McClement/Dwyer has been a bright point in 2015 providing 2 key penalty killers on a special teams unit that has been stellar and a very solid burst of goal scoring to boot.
With the reality that the Canes are not going to upgrade significantly via pure spending, you can see Peters (and Francis from above) trying to figure it out with Nestrasil being tried out here, there and everywhere including the center position. If Peters wants to stay with Staal/Staal for his top line, Nestrasil becomes the most likely option on the current roster to fill an open center slot.
If I was GM, I continue to think that trading Skinner is the fastest path to making multiple upgrades. (I am working from the assumption that Semin and Ward are either untradeable or just real complicated deals that you cannot count on.) I just still do not see enough evidence that he can round into more than a raw scorer whose 2-way play makes it hard to slot him in the top 6. If I could parlay his contract into a similar age (22-25) top 4 capable defender, ideally with a lower salary plus some modest futures, I would do it in a heartbeat. You round out the defense, still probably have enough options to build a decent 2-way 3rd line (Nestrasil/Rask/Lindholm) that can score some and free up $2-3M to put toward adding 1 more forward.
So shorter version: --I like the depth for the 3rd and 4th line if the team does not have to completely elevate what I see as a 3rd line to the 2nd line. --I think the Canes are short at least 1 if not 2 true top 6 forwards. Maybe you can borrow 1 from below, but as soon as you start moving 2 or 3 of the kids up the 2nd line, they are overslotted and the depth below takes a hit at the same time. --I know it's controversial, but I continue to think that Jeff Skinner is worth more in trade and potential salary savings than on the roster.
What say you Canes fans? Am I crazy to think that the Canes forward set might only be short by 1 (albeit a top 6 type) forward? Whose turn is it to declare me nuts for trading a 22-year-old proven goal scorer? Where does Nestrasil fit best?
Twitter=@CarolinaMatt63
Go Canes!