The Steven Stamkos dream - or as many believed pipe dream - is no more. Stamkos and the Lightning reached agreement on an eight-year, $68 million deal, removing him from free agency before he even reached that status. The two parties had maintained dialogue even as rumors swirled - including at the draft - that a sign-and-trade might be in the offering. Stamkos' signing removes the biggest potential name from free agency, impacting Toronto, Buffalo and others who had placed their hopes on landing the stud center. Included in that list was the Rangers, who reportedly were preparing a big offer though many of us couldn't figure out how they would fit that salary into their tight cap space. Now that is no longer a concern and Tampa Bay remains a formidable foe who could get even stronger if they deal Ben Bishop for additional assets.
Stamkos' signing completed what was a crazy hour that had a major impact on the NHL landscape. Leading off those 60 minutes was the Taylor Hall for Adam Larsson trade. Hall had been rumored to be on the block as Edmonton looked to change the culture and chemistry on that team. Whispers started to come out that Larsson was in the deal but all of us expected more than just him to go back for Hall. How wrong we were. It was a straight up one for one deal. While Larsson is obviously much cheaper and comes with the upside of a top-four, maybe top-two d-men - at least to most except EJ Hradek - his talent level doesn't meet Hall's. Even if you factor in the report that Milan Lucic had agreed to a long-term deal with the Oilers and Edmonton needed to clear cap room as well as start the culture change that was needed, the return has to be more than just Larsson. Then when you add in the reports that Hall might have gone for Subban and you really are left scratching your head. But as we have seen Peter Chiarelli has no problems making bold - not necessarily good, but bold - trades! In addition, somewhat lost in the signing itself is that all but $8-million of Steven Stamkos's $68-million contract will be paid in July 1 signing bonuses, meaning that while the cap hit is the same, it impacts any potential buy out while Stamkos gets lockout protection when the CBA expires in 2020.
New Jersey makes out like a bandit. The Devils have historically struggled to score. In obtain Hall, who comes with a bit of baggage due to some rumors of locker room friction and chemistry issues that I have been told of, the Devils get a big time scorer. New Jersey will miss Larsson but adding Hall fill a major gap. If the Devils can also lock up Kyle Palmieri long term and get Michael Cammalleri back healthy, they have a pretty good start up front. After getting Hall, you have to wonder if NJ also tries to bring back Lee Stempniak. When you add in Cory Schneider, the acquisition of Hall may move the Devils into a playoff spot, adversely impacting the Rangers' chances (more on that later).
The next domino to fall almost took attention away from the Oilers deal. Nashville traded Shea Weber to Montreal for Subban. My quick analysis is that very short-term Montreal may get the edge, but long-term, given Subban's age and contract, Nashville wins the deal. Especially when you look up and see their top-four is Subban, Josi, Ellis and Ekholm. The Predators also have half their eight skaters to be protected from expansion with this deal, as those four will be the aforementioned d-men. Weber is 31 and still has a lot of hockey left, but he appeared to have lost a step last year and the remaining years to 2025-26 on the 12-year deal he signed will impact Montreal's cap long term. The Canadiens clearly we're looking for a culture change and wanted to move on from Subban, who had been prominently mentioned as being on the block for weeks. Nashville was more than happy to accommodate that change, strengthening their D at just a little less than a $1.2 million cap increase per season.
The East already likely has playoff teams in Pittsburgh, Washington, Florida and Tampa, even without Stamkos but the Lightning now are an almost lock with him. New Jersey is even more firmly in the mix of teams battling for a spot; a list that includes Boston, Detroit, Montreal, Islanders, Columbus, possibly Buffalo and the Rangers. Several of those teams face key RFA and UFA decisions, each of which will impact the standings. Boston needs to add offense while Detroit is now dealing with the loss of Pavel Datsyuk and lack of availability of Stamkos. Montreal may suffer from the loss of Subban despite the acquisition of Weber. That impact may be more off than on the ice, due to Subban's impact on the community and in the locker room. The Isles look like they will lose Kyle Okposo, Matt Martin and possibly Frans Nielsen while also negatively impacted by the lack of availability of Stamkos. Columbus has to be better than they were last season while Buffalo looks to be ascending and clearly are willing to spend.
That leaves the Rangers. It's well documented the cap constraints and decisions to be made. As I wrote Wednesday, it's been much ado about nothing and all the speculation and talk has been the sound of fury signifying nothing. Unless one of the big salaries are moved, it will be shopping at the dollar store. Those aisles might include Thomas Vanek. In addition, Viktor Stalberg, who most of us want back, is in discussions to return, but as of now his price tag is too high. What that means is unknown, but it might be he wants at least a three-year deal or a salary of more than $2 mil per year. If it's either or both, unless Stalberg lowers his demands, he is unlikely to return.
On this note, I love the ripping of Gorton, but what was he to do? Who was he going to offer for Hall and especially Subban given the latter's contract? I would love to rip him but you can't force a deal and were the Rangers giving McD or Skjei? Plus, if it was Skjei, how was Hall's salary fitting in? In addition, trading one of the two would weaken what was already at times last year a porous defense. Gorton is hamstrung by bad contracts that no team seems to have any interest in acquiring and if they do, it would come at the expense of a needed asset or substantial salary coverage. Based on both factors, explain to me what we expect him to do? It stinks plain and simple but as I said Wednesday, I would rather get stuck with a bad contract or several than deal one to end up in a worse position.
Unless something radically changed in the next day or so, don't expect much for New York on July 1 or shortly thereafter.