There are lots of pertinent games tonight for the Sharks.
Dallas, Winnipeg and Los Angeles are all in action tonight in separate games. Wins by all three and a loss by San Jose to Vancouver will do significant damage to the Sharks post-season dreams. Right now, to hit 95 points, the Sharks would have to finish the season 11-5-1 or 10-4-3. With how the Sharks have played all year it’s pretty easy to doubt that happens.
That being said, until the final hammer comes down on the Sharks season they are still in the hunt and winning a string of games will keep them alive.
Tonight, against the Canucks, is an extremely important game. The race for the two spots in the divisional matchup for the Pacific are still up for grabs. While unlikely to happen, there is a possibility that both LA and SJ end up in those spots – that’s how tight the race is. VAN and CGY sit with 76 points, LA with 74 and SJ with 72.
A lot of the Sharks potential success hinges on Todd McLellan’s coaching decisions – who’s in, who’s out, what the lines look like, etc. Winners of two straight with a consistent lineup, the Sharks shouldn’t look to change anything on their roster right now. Run with what’s working.
Brent Burns and Matt Irwin have been sheltered like the Sharks life depends on it – and perhaps it does. In the last two games, Burns had offensive zone start percentages of 100% (VAN) and 90% (MTL) while Irwin enjoyed 100% (VAN) and 82% (MTL). Should your second defensive pair need to be sheltered that much? No, it’s certainly not ideal – but for these two it’s the best possible option. It would be criminal to pair Mueller with Irwin even though Burns and Dillon had worked as a pairing previously. I doubt the Sharks will be looking to change 88/52’s offensive zone start percentages anytime soon.
Struggles At 5v5 Down 1 Goal
The Sharks inability to fight back lately is tough to watch. Generally, when teams get down a goal they start pushing and end up with better possession. During the first 38 games of the season, from October until the end of December, the Sharks would push harder to get back into games. When tied, the Sharks had a CF% of 53.3% at 5v5. Down a goal, they would shoot up to 62.1% - good enough for 3rd in the league when trailing by one at 5v5.
Since January 1st, though, the fight has died off significantly. San Jose has played 27 games in 2015 and has a 5v5 (tied) CF% of 51.1% - less than the first portion of games, but still positive. When the Sharks get down a goal in 2015 their play gets even worse and sits at 47.9% - good enough for 5th worst in the entire NHL. Of the four teams below them (CGY, COL, NJ, BUF) only NJ joins the Sharks as a member of the lay down and die club – yes, even Buffalo plays harder and they have perhaps the greatest and most calculated tanking of all time in process.
Only Carolina, Arizona, San Jose and New Jersey have a worse CF% down one than they do tied since January 1st. Not surprisingly, all four are out of the playoffs right now.
San Jose needs to find a way to fight back when they start to trail. They need to find that confidence or spark they had in the first 38 games of the season instead of deflating and throwing in the towel.
Anyway, tonight’s game should be entertaining with so much on the line for both clubs. Only the Ducks are safe in the Pacific so the finish to the season will be interesting for the four teams involved in the chase for two spots.
Puck drop is at 7pmPDT(10pmET)
Thanks for reading.
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