Yesterday, Mike Halford had an article up on Pro Hockey Talk surrounding the Sharks reported interest in a 25 year old goalie – a statement that originally came from Elliotte Friedman. Halford expanded the narrow 25 year old age slightly.
Halford brought up a few names:
Martin Jones, LA Antti Raanta, CHI Michael Neuvirth, BUF Eddie Lack, VAN Jonathan Bernier, TOR
I’ve made it pretty clear that my opinion is Jonathan Bernier would be a fantastic addition to the Sharks, so let’s run through the others quickly.
For Martin Jones we have to assume Los Angeles would be insane to trade him to San Jose, so I highly doubt there’s any weight at all to that suggestion. Jones is also having a rough year statistically and has the smallest sample size. LA has the lowest scoring chances against per 60 minutes in the NHL and Jones has still struggled this year with a 91.74% 5v5 save percentage. Although his numbers are higher last year and this year, his drop off in play is similar to Alex Stalock’s. If we don’t trust Stalock, why should we trust Jones – especially when Jones has a significantly better defensive group.
Antti Raanta’s numbers are up significantly from last year and he’s quickly become the flavor of the league for goalie inquiries. Again, significantly better defensive group and a very small sample size, but at least it’s an increase in play and not a decrease.
Eddie Lack has a larger sample size compared to Jones and Raanta and has increased numbers between last year and this year with a smaller spread in percentage. He’s the safer choice out of the first three, although Raanta and Jones would be a more popular selection based on where they’re playing and the success those two teams currently have.
Michael Neuvirth has put up solid numbers playing for a horrific team in Buffalo – similar to what Jonathan Bernier has been doing with the disaster in Toronto. Neuvirth’s 93.26% 5v5 save percentage is second in the group only to Antti Raanta. Neuvirth’s numbers regressed in his first few seasons before trending up consistently over the last three – which accounts for 1/3 of his games in the NHL.
What’s pretty constant in all of them is that there is no proven consistency of a long period of time, so are any of them really worth giving up a significant asset for? If you’re going after one of those five choices it should be Jonathan Bernier. After Bernier you’re taking a risk by giving away a future asset you can’t afford to get rid of.
Here’s a 5v5 save percentage chart on the five suggested options + Niemi (2013-present) for comparison purposes. The larger the bubble, the larger the sample size:
The body of work to go by is pretty clear. Bernier (97 games) has a better grouping to work with, and he has the 2nd highest save percentage of the group. Martin Jones is tops after having a 94.67% in 2013-2014 before dropping almost 3 full percentage points this year. After Bernier, Neuvirth is the safest choice.
For me, I’d rather see the Sharks avoid doing what they did with Niemi – which is get a goaltender whose history is based on where he played, not how he’s played. With such a small sample for Jones and Raanta is it really worth a future asset to acquire an unknown? I guess the real question is what’s the direction of this hockey team? If they plan on competing next season versus falling on their face like this year is Jones or Raanta a legitimate starter option? It’s an unknown answer at this point.
With either of them, you’re hoping for the 2013-2014 Jones or the 2014-2015 Raanta. The Sharks could just hope for the 2013-2014 Stalock for free if they want to play a game of chance with their season next year.
The Sharks shouldn’t waste their time bouncing from goaltender to goaltender like the Edmonton Oilers – because that’s what it is, a waste of time if you don’t find the right one right away. Take the time to acquire the right goalie and not the flavor backup of the week. There are other areas that can be improved on while the goaltending market improves. If Bernier isn’t an option to acquire then they shouldn’t spend one of Thornton/Marleau’s final two years in teal playing the goalie version of Russian Roulette.
Thanks for reading.
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