Rielly Could Be Exception To Leafs Short-Term Trend; Marner Magical (maple leafs)

With the signing of goaltender Jonathan Bernier, the Toronto Maple Leafs resolved the final contract dilemma of the 2015 offseason without signing a single player to a long-term deal.

Bernier agreed to a two-year, $8.3 Million contract extension following an arbitration hearing last Friday, which falls in line with the apparent plan of the Leafs management team(Brendan Shanahan, Kyle Dubas, Mark Hunter and Brandon Pridham) to not limit their options by signing players to long term contracts or extensions.

Other than the entry-level deals signed or acquired (Mitch Marner, Travis Dermott and Kasperi Kapanen), Toronto did not exceed two years with any of their signings or trades.

Nazem Kadri(RFA) – 1-year-deal, $4.1 Million Shawn Matthias(UFA) – 1-year-deal, $2.3 Million Daniel Winnik(UFA) – 2-year-deal, $4.5 Million($2.25M AAV) Nick Spaling(Trade) – 1-year-remaining, $2.2 Million Pierre-Alexandre Parenteau(UFA) – 1-year-deal, $1.5 Million Mark Arcobello(UFA) – 1-year-deal, $1.1 Million Casey Bailey(UFA) – 2-year-deal, $1.825 Million($912,500 AAV)(Two-way) Taylor Beck(Trade-RFA) – 1-year-deal, $875,000 Zach Hyman(Trade-UFA) – 2-year-deal, $1.8 Million($900,000 AAV)(Two-way) Sam Carrick(RFA) – 1-year-deal, $600,000(Two-way) Byron Froese(RFA) – 2-year-deal, $1.15 Million($575,000 AAV)(Two-way)

Matt Hunwick(UFA) – 2-year-deal, $2.4 Million($1.2 Million AAV) Martin Marincin(Trade-RFA) – 1-year-deal, $700,000 TJ Brennan(RFA) – 1-year-deal, $675,000 Petter Granberg(RFA) – 1-year-deal, $600,000(Two-way)

Jonathan Bernier(RFA) – 2-year-deal, $8.3 Million($4.15 Million AAV) As the Leafs forge forward with their teardown and rebuild over the next two-to-three seasons, it is expected that the club under fiscally conservative GM Lou Lamoriello will continue to be disciplined about giving out long-term extensions to players they are not sure about.

Kadri and Bernier both had designs on lengthy contracts coming out of two-year bridge deals, but disappointing play, the Leafs second-half collapse and an organizational reboot with Shanahan, Lamoriello and Mike Babcock at the helm made that a non-starter.

Unless there is a dramatic change of course in Kadri’s attitude and consistency next season, it is likely that the former first-round pick will continue to be signed to short-term deals (as defenseman Cody Franson was) until he is traded.

Many of the veterans signed to one-year-deals, as well as pending UFA’s Roman Polak and James Reimer have an uncertain future if the Leafs are not competing for a playoff spot prior to the trade deadline next March.

The only player that realistically has a chance to get a deal of five years or longer in the near future is 2012 first rounder Morgan Rielly, whose entry-level contract expires next July. The 21-year-old blueliner at times was the only player during the dreadful second half that provided any hope or spark for Leafs fans, scoring eight goals and 21 assists in his sophomore season.

The recent trend throughout the league has been to lock up young defensemen for five-to-seven years out of their entry-level deals rather than going the route of the bridge deal, mostly because it is beneficial to the player (who gets paid in the neighborhood of $4 to $5 Million) and gives cost certainty to the team.

Examples:

Travis Hamonic(NYI) – 7-year-deal, $27 Million($3.857 Million AAV till age 30) Roman Josi(NAS) – 7-year-deal, $28 Million($4 Million AAV till age 30) Oliver Ekman-Larsson(ARZ) – 6-year-deal, $33 Million($5.5 Million AAV till age 28) Justin Faulk(CAR) – 6-year-deal, $29 Million($4.833 Million AAV till age 28) Jonas Brodin(MIN) – 6-year-deal, $25 Million($4.166 Million AAV till age 28) Dougie Hamilton(CAL) – 6-year-deal, $34.5 Million($5.75 Million AAV till age 28) John Klingberg(DAL) – 7-year-deal, $29.75 Million($4.25 Million AAV till age 30)

The cautionary tale about not getting a talented defenseman signed long-term is PK Subban, who wanted $5 Million per season coming off of his entry-level deal and held out before agreeing to a two-year bridge deal at less than $3 Million per season.

Subban won the Norris Trophy in the first year of that deal. If the Habs were willing to sign the defenseman to a long-term deal, they would have had Subban at a bargain price for three more years. Instead they ended up paying through the nose and making #76 the highest paid defensman in the NHL with a eight-year, $72 Million max deal.

With ample cap space the next few seasons, being proactive and signing Rielly to a lengthy extension is the best course of action for the defenseman and for the future of the Maple Leafs.

Based on the astute contractual machinations shown so far in the Shanahan era, it would not be surprising to hear an announcement of a long-term deal after January 1, when the two-sides can begin to discuss an extension.

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Future Watch

The top of the Maple Leafs 2015 Draft class was on display last night, as Team Canada defeated Russia 4-1 at at the Markin MacPhail Center in Calgary. Fourth overall pick Mitch Marner had an assist and impressed with his skating and puck handling ability. The 18-year-old forward played at center during penalty kills, the point on the power play and on the wing with fellow first rounders Dylan Strome and Lawson Crouse.

Second round pick Travis Dermott(D-Erie Otters) also played well and could be a candidate to play on Canada’s blueline for the upcoming World Junior Championship in Helsinki.

Jeremy Bracco, the Leafs other Toronto second rounder, survived the first cutdown for Team USA’s squad.

The 18-year-old native of Long Island was the final cut for the American squad last year.

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