This blog is an update on the one I posted yesterday following the acquisition of Keith Yandle. Included within is the trade for James Sheppard and the impact on the line combination. In addition, I have included the net cap hit, factoring in just the player movement, including the impact of LTIR, rookie bonuses. Duclair's partial season, etc.
The news that the Rangers were in on Keith Yandle broke mid-afternoon. It didn't take long for a deal to get done, though the cost was high. New York get Keith Yandle, Chris Summers, who was selected 29th in 2006, and a 2016 4th rounder in exchange for John Moore, Anthony Duclair, a second round pick in 2015 and a first-round pick in 2016. To Arizona, the keys were Duclair and the first round pick, but also dealing Yandle could enable to get them higher in the Eichel/McDavid sweepstakes. If somehow they get him and pair him with Duclair and Max Domi, that's a heck of a future.
I apologize if this blog goes in stops and starts, but as said I am very betwixt and between on this deal. See the benefits but the downside as well. If NY doesn't win a Cup, it's likely a failure, and even if they do, if Duclair pans out like many of us thing he can, that deal could haunt the team for years to come. Points to Sather for being bold, but at times, boldness has a cost and that could be the case here.
Arizona is eating half of Yandle's salary this year and next, saving $2.625 in cap room for NY. The rumor is that the Rangers are plowing that savings into re-signing Mats Zuccarello, with whom discussions had broken off, resulting with him landing on the block. Now, they do get to keep him, signing him Sunday night for four years at $4.5 mil with partial no trade clause, but the cost in terms of players and salary is still high.
New York is in a win-mode now. The window to do so is likely anywhere from 1-3 years, but that prevailing view in the organization clearly prompted this deal. In addition, the signing of Dan Girardi and Marc Staal to long-term big money deals reduced the amount of cap space available. Compound that with Tanner Glass at $1.45 mil for the next two years after this one plus Dan Boyle, who has a $4.5 mil cap hit next year as well, and as you see, the available money is scarce. Then when you factor in the need to sign Carl Hagelin and Derek Stepan and Martin st. Louis, let alone Zucc and it gets worse and worse.
I know some are upset at the Girardi signing, figuring the Rangers would have been better off getting Sami Vatanen etc. It's hard to argue with that thought, especially seeing how Vatanen has gotten much better with room to grow while Girardi has regressed with five more years at $5.5 mil per to go. The bigger impact was the loss of Anton Stralman, which came about due to the Rangers desire to sign Boyle plus Sather's inability or refusal to sign players long-term before they hit the market. If he had offered Stralman a reasonable deal during the year, he likely would have locked him up long term at a cheaper price than Boyle. Yandle fills the role left by Stralman and gives NY a PP QB, which they had been searching for seemingly forever.
The blueline now with Moore out and Yandle is is likely: McDonagh, Girardi Staal, Yandle Boyle, Klein
The Klein/Staal pairing had been very good but you can't have Boyle with Yandle. In addition, that righty-lefty balance that AV loves so much is now gone. In addition, all six D-men are signed through at least next year, though it's feasible one is moved in the off-season. That makes Matt Hunwick the seventh d-man and likely means Brady Skjei will play at Hartford next year, assuming he goes pro, unless Boyle - I hope - is dealt.
The bigger issue to me, beyond Sather's short-sightedness in not giving wise long term deals and foolish free agent signings, is the cost. We all saw what Duclair could be in his brief stint in NY along with how he played in the WJC. He has struggled at times back in the Q, but he is a big-time prospect, one who likely is at a minimum in the top-25 in the league, before this year's draft. To give him up is bad enough. Then you compound it by surrendering the 2016 first rounder, which means they will not have had a first rounder for four straight seasons. The pick is lottery protected - so much for little things - but there is only so much you can rely on findings gems in the third round before you fail to do so.
Giving up John Moore hurts as well. While he had struggled in NY, as his physical skills and talent never seemed to fully manifest themselves on the ice, his upside is still there. Personally, I think he goes to Arizona and becomes a solid, top-four defenseman. Defenseman growth is not linear, so Moore's slowness in developing is not surprising. But he has the skills whereby if/when they come together, the package could be very nice.
Get used to this team, as many are or will be around long term. Myboystepan listed many of them, but here they are again:
3 more years of Nash and Klein
4 more years of Brass, Zuccarello (if rumors are true) and McDonagh
5 more years of Girardi and Staal
6 more years of Lundqvist
Plus we are going to extend our players whose contracts expire as RFAs, meaning Stepan, Kreider, Hagelin and Hayes as well as possibly Miller and Fast.
So of the 20 on the team, if you go by the list, 12 are definitely here the next few years and possibly up to 14 staying. That leaves Boyle and Yandle, Moore and Glass as well as Talbot as the only ones pretty much definitely gone after this or next season.
Then you have the following prospects: Buchnevich, Tambellini, Skjei, Skapski, Shestyorkin, Halverson at one level with Lindberg, Graves, Nieves, Haggerty, Bodie and Allen at another.
Update for Stempniak and Sheppard deals:
The Rangers dealt Lee Stempniak to Winnipeg for Carl Klingberg. Why? To gain cap room to make the next deal. Stempniak's 900k comes off the books while Klingberg and his $650,000 cap hit was sent to the minors. At the time the deal was made, on the face of it, it made little sense, but once the second deal occurred it all became clear. Stempniak was better suited to play the third line and was miscast on the fourth, though he had played much better lately.
GM Glen Sather wasn't done, making his third deal of the day. The Rangers dealt a 2016 fourth-round pick, theirs and not Arizona's which came over in the Yandle deal, to the Sharks for 26-year-old forward James Sheppard. San Jose ate $100k of Sheppard's 1.3 million salary, so between Stempniak and shepherd, NY added 300k in salary.
Sheppard, a former ninth overall draft pick in the 2006 NHL Entry Draft, has struggled with injuries and inconsistency. What you may lose in offense in Stempniak is made up for in versatility, as Sheppard can play center and wing, and defensive capability, as Sheppard is perfect for the fourth line. Sheppard also has shown the ability to win draws, which is an area that NY needed help in, plus he can play on the penalty kill.
Cap Hit:
The Rangers are now clearly right up against the cap. Going into Sunday, the Rangers had anywhere between $1.5 and $2.2 million in cap room with my understanding is they were at the higher number. Even with Arizona taking on half of Yandle's salary, the team added 2.625 mil in salary there. That was offset by Moore's 850k that went to the Coyotes. As noted above, the Rangers added $1.2 mil in Sheppard while losing 900k in Stempniak. The approximate net add is $2.125 mil ($3.875 coming in with $1.75 going out). So you see that they basically have no room left right now.
The new line combinations should be:
Nash-Brassard-Zuccarello Kreider-Stepan-MSL Hagelin-Hayes-Miller Sheppard-Moore-Fast
Glass is the extra. You could move Fast up and Miller down or sit one of them for Glass.
McDonagh-Girardi Staal-Yandle Boyle-Klein
As good as Yandle is offensively, there are major questions about his defense. As such, he should play with Staal, who can help mask some of those deficiencies. As I noted above, there is no way he can play with Boyle, who also doesn't fit with Staal, so Klein likely moves down to play with Boyle.
Hopefully the boldness pays off and my view will be flipped. But, as we have seen before, the "win-now" mode is always activated, even though it does not always make the more sense. For now, I understand the deal but not in love with it. Plus, I am concerned more bad signings are in the future, meaning players like Buchnevich or Tambellini will be sacrificed to make up for them. A little time has mollified me a bit but hate dealing Duclair way more that worried about the two picks traded, though don't love that and wish there was way to have kept Moore. The cap limitations played a big role in that decision but if the Rangers do win the Cup, of course it will be worth it. But i will still feel the way I did when Weight and Amonte were traded in '93 and '94.